Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) fair value analysis
Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19
FLY price how computed
Valuation status
No fair-value estimate yetFLY has no usable analyst consensus for next fiscal year's earnings, or too few reported quarters for our trailing P/E history.
Forward Fair Value needs both, so TickrTrends publishes no verdict for FLY yet. We re-check every week; the price, fundamentals, technicals and earnings data below are unaffected.
- Last price
- $16.75
- Sector
- Industrials
- 12-month range
- $16.75–$58.81
- Market cap
- $2.8B
- From 52-week high
- -71.5%
- Shares outstanding
- 167M
- Rank in Industrials by quality score
- #121 of 152
Last price is the 2026-10-16 close; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Firefly Aerospace Inc. is a space launch and in-space services company that develops and operates rockets and spacecraft for commercial, government, and national security customers. The company is headquartered in the United States and conducts operations across multiple locations including manufacturing and launch facilities.
FLY currently ranks #121 of 152 Industrials stocks by quality score.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $2.8B
- P/E (trailing)
- n/m
- Revenue (TTM)
- $287M
- Net margin
- -126.6%
- EPS (TTM)
- $-1.81
- Gross margin
- 20.3%
- Debt / equity
- 0.04
- Shares outstanding
- 167M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- F
- Margin trend
- Expanding
- 52-week position
- The bottom quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 34 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $22.45
- 200-day average
- $27.65
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price below both averages
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-11-10 (post-market)
- Last 5 quarters vs consensus
- 2 beat, 3 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+16.0%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+11.5%)
2025-12 ▼ miss (-17.4%)
2025-09 ▼ miss (-25.0%)
2025-06 ▼ miss (-21.5%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 7 buy · 3 hold · 0 sell (10 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $38
- Target vs last price
- +126.9%
What our data shows for FLY
- Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $16.75–$58.81.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 34.
What subscribers see
- Every published Forward Fair Value with its exact discount or premium
- The normalized P/E and quarter count behind each estimate
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
- FLY's own verdict the week it qualifies, published automatically
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
What people are saying
Follow the FLY conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for FLY showed a shift this week as the 50/200-day trend state moved from mixed to downtrend. This change in the trend indicator reflects weakness in the near-term price momentum relative to the longer-term trajectory. The current valuation verdict for this Industrials sector company remains awaiting full valuation.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-05 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — TickrTrends initiated weekly Forward Fair Value coverage of this stock.
Frequently asked questions
Is FLY stock undervalued?
TickrTrends has no fair-value estimate for FLY yet: there is no usable analyst consensus for next fiscal year's earnings, or too few reported quarters for a trailing P/E history. It is re-checked every week.
What is FLY's TickrTrends verdict?
FLY is currently marked 'No fair-value estimate yet' - a verdict publishes automatically once a forward earnings consensus and enough reported quarters are available.
How does FLY compare to other Industrials stocks?
FLY ranks #121 of 152 Industrials stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by quality score. It carries no fair-value verdict yet, so it is not ranked by discount.
Is FLY overbought or oversold?
FLY's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
When does FLY report earnings next?
FLY's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-11-10 (post-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does FLY usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 5 reported quarters FLY beat the consensus estimate 2 times and missed 3 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about FLY?
Of 10 analysts covering FLY, 7 rate it a buy, 3 a hold and 0 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $38 (+126.9% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.