HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
HCA price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
Fairly valuedHCA is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $451.09
- Sector
- Healthcare
- 12-month range
- $361.32–$545.13
- Market cap
- $97.7B
- From 52-week high
- -17.3%
- Shares outstanding
- 217M
- Rank in Healthcare by discount to fair value
- #56 of 108
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
HCA Healthcare, Inc. operates one of the largest networks of hospitals and healthcare facilities in the United States, providing a wide range of medical services including emergency care, surgery, diagnostics, and specialty treatments. The company operates hospitals and healthcare facilities across numerous states throughout the country, serving patients in both urban and rural communities.
HCA currently ranks #56 of 108 Healthcare stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Fairly valued for 11 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $97.7B
- P/E (trailing)
- 15x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $78B
- Net margin
- 8.8%
- EPS (TTM)
- $29.71
- Gross margin
- 15.2%
- Debt / equity
- 0.00
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 8.3%
- Shares outstanding
- 217M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- D
- Margin trend
- Contracting
- 52-week position
- The lower-middle quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 61 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $426.49
- 200-day average
- $444.92
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price between the averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $3.06 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 0.68%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 5
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-09-16
- Last payment date
- 2026-09-30
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-10-27 (pre-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 7 beat, 1 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+0.3%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+0.3%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+7.1%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+21.5%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+8.2%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+12.2%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+1.3%)
2024-09 ▼ miss (-1.6%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 15 buy · 10 hold · 1 sell (26 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $461
- Target vs last price
- +2.2%
What our data shows for HCA
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for HCA, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the middle of their 12-month price range of $361.32–$545.13.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 61.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for HCA
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent HCA news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for HCA is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- HCA Healthcare Is Too Healthy To Downgrade (NYSE:HCA) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-13)
TickrTrends take: HCA Healthcare maintains a Fairly valued assessment according to TickrTrends, which aligns with the market's recognition of the company's strong operational performance in the Healthcare sector. Investors monitoring the stock should watch whether HCA's demonstrated health translates into margin expansion or capital allocation decisions that could shift its valuation status. A Fairly valued position suggests limited upside from current levels unless the company's fundamentals accelerate beyond what the market has already priced in. - HCA Maintained by TD Cowen -- Price Target Raised to $460 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-12)
TickrTrends take: TD Cowen's maintained rating on HCA alongside a price target increase to $460 suggests analyst confidence in the company's fundamentals, which aligns with TickrTrends' fairly valued assessment of the healthcare operator. For valuation-focused investors, this development indicates that upside potential may exist if HCA can execute on the factors supporting Cowen's elevated target, while the fairly valued status suggests current pricing already reflects much of the company's known strengths. Investors should monitor whether HCA's operational performance and financial metrics can justify a move toward the $460 target or whether the fairly valued designation will persist. - HCA DCF Analysis: Intrinsic Value $740 vs Price $435 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-06)
TickrTrends take: HCA's discounted cash flow analysis suggests the stock may be trading below its calculated intrinsic value, which could interest investors focused on valuation metrics. However, TickrTrends currently rates the stock as fairly valued, indicating that market consensus may not fully align with the DCF model's assessment. Investors watching this healthcare company should monitor whether the gap between the DCF-derived intrinsic value and the current market price narrows over time, as this divergence could signal either undervaluation or model assumptions that require reassessment.
What people are saying
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TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is HCA stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), HCA is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value and screens as fairly valued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is HCA's TickrTrends verdict?
HCA's current verdict is Fairly valued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does HCA compare to other Healthcare stocks?
HCA ranks #56 of 108 Healthcare stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is HCA overbought or oversold?
HCA's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does HCA pay a dividend?
Yes. HCA paid $3.06 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 0.68% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 5 consecutive years. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-09-16.
When does HCA report earnings next?
HCA's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-10-27 (pre-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does HCA usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters HCA beat the consensus estimate 7 times and missed 1 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about HCA?
Of 26 analysts covering HCA, 15 rate it a buy, 10 a hold and 1 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $461 (+2.2% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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