LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH) fair value analysis
Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19
LGIH price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
Fairly valuedLGIH is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $43.01
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- 12-month range
- $34.24–$65.84
- Market cap
- $1B
- From 52-week high
- -34.7%
- Shares outstanding
- 23.2M
- Rank in Consumer Cyclical by discount to fair value
- #51 of 85
Last price is our stored weekly price from 2026-10-16, older than the 2026-10-19 run that built this page; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
LGI Homes, Inc. is a homebuilder that designs and constructs single-family homes for first-time homebuyers and entry-level buyers in the United States. The company operates through multiple communities across various states, focusing on affordable housing offerings in target markets.
LGIH currently ranks #51 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Fairly valued for 4 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $1B
- P/E (trailing)
- 13x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $1.71B
- Net margin
- 3.9%
- EPS (TTM)
- $3.22
- Gross margin
- 19.7%
- Debt / equity
- 0.74
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- -5.5%
- Shares outstanding
- 23.2M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- F
- Margin trend
- Contracting
- 52-week position
- The lower-middle quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 39 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $51.76
- 200-day average
- $50.49
- Moving-average state
- 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price between the averages
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-11-03 (pre-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 3 beat, 4 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▬ met (0.0%)
2026-03 ▼ miss (-51.0%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+6.6%)
2025-09 ▼ miss (-8.6%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+3.8%)
2025-03 ▼ miss (-73.0%)
2024-12 ▼ miss (-1.2%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+16.6%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 1 buy · 1 hold · 0 sell (2 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $93
- Target vs last price
- +116.2%
What our data shows for LGIH
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for LGIH, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $34.24–$65.84.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 39.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for LGIH
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent LGIH news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for LGIH is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- LGI Homes Inc (LGIH) Shares Fall 4.5% -- What GF Score of 63 Tells Investors (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-20)
TickrTrends take: LGI Homes shares declined after receiving a GF Score of 63, which suggests moderate fundamental quality that warrants investor scrutiny. With TickrTrends currently assessing LGIH as fairly valued, the Consumer Cyclical homebuilder's valuation appears aligned with its underlying business metrics, though the mid-range quality score indicates investors should monitor earnings trends and sector conditions before adjusting positions. For valuation-focused readers, tracking whether the company can improve its fundamental score while maintaining its current price level will be key to determining if the fair value assessment remains appropriate. - LGI Homes Announces the Opening of New Community in Weatherford, Texas (manilatimes.net, 2026-10-16)
TickrTrends take: LGI Homes' expansion into new markets like Weatherford, Texas represents continued operational activity in the homebuilding sector, which remains sensitive to interest rates, housing demand, and consumer confidence. Given the current Fairly valued assessment, investors monitoring this stock should track whether new community openings translate into meaningful revenue growth and margin expansion, as these metrics will be critical to justifying any valuation adjustment. The company's ability to execute across multiple communities while managing costs in the Consumer Cyclical sector will be important context for evaluating whether the current valuation holds or shifts. - LGI Homes Reports September and Q3 2026 Home Closings with Ticker LGIH (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-06)
TickrTrends take: LGI Homes reported its September and third quarter 2026 home closings, providing data points relevant to evaluating the company's current valuation status. TickrTrends currently assesses LGIH as overvalued within the Consumer Cyclical sector, making actual closure volumes and revenue trends particularly important metrics for investors to monitor against the current valuation. As a homebuilder whose earnings directly correlate with unit sales and pricing power, any divergence between reported closings and market expectations could either justify or challenge the overvalued assessment in a cyclical industry sensitive to interest rates and consumer demand.
More LGIH news
- LGI Homes (LGIH) Reports 9% Increase in September Home Closings (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-06)
- LGI Homes, Inc. Reports September and Third Quarter 2026 Home Closings and Announces Date for Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call (manilatimes.net, 2026-10-05)
What people are saying
Follow the LGIH conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — LGIH's position within the Consumer Cyclical sector has improved this week, with its sector discount rank moving from 72 to 63. The company's valuation verdict has shifted from Overvalued to Fairly valued according to TickrTrends' derived indicators. This change suggests that LGIH's valuation metrics have become more aligned with sector norms.
- 2026-10-05 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — LGIH moved from an oversold RSI zone to a neutral RSI zone this week. The stock remains classified as overvalued according to TickrTrends' derived indicators. This shift in relative strength suggests reduced downward momentum compared to the prior week.
- 2026-09-21 — LGIH moved into oversold territory this week as its RSI zone shifted from neutral to oversold, indicating that selling pressure has intensified. The stock remains classified as overvalued based on current valuation metrics. This combination of oversold momentum conditions alongside elevated valuation suggests the stock is experiencing downward price movement despite being valued above fundamental levels.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is LGIH stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), LGIH is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value and screens as fairly valued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is LGIH's TickrTrends verdict?
LGIH's current verdict is Fairly valued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does LGIH compare to other Consumer Cyclical stocks?
LGIH ranks #51 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is LGIH overbought or oversold?
LGIH's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
When does LGIH report earnings next?
LGIH's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-11-03 (pre-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does LGIH usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters LGIH beat the consensus estimate 3 times and missed 4 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about LGIH?
Of 2 analysts covering LGIH, 1 rate it a buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $93 (+116.2% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
More in Consumer Cyclical
Head-to-head comparisons
LGIH vs ASO · LGIH vs BBY · LGIH vs CVCO · LGIH vs F · LGIH vs GM