Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) fair value analysis

Nasdaq · Updated 2026-09-07

Lumentum Holdings Inc. manufactures optical and photonic products used in telecommunications, data center, and consumer electronics applications. The company operates globally with manufacturing and operational facilities across multiple regions including the United States, Asia, and Europe.

Forward Fair Value verdict

Overvalued

Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model, LITE is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value.

LITE currently ranks #179 of 199 Technology stocks by discount to Forward Fair Value. It has screened as Overvalued for 3 consecutive weekly runs.

Last price: $779.89
Sector: Technology
12-month range: $171.40–$949.93

Derived indicators

Coarse bands from TickrTrends' weekly models; exact figures are part of the full report.

Quality grade: F
Leverage: High
Margin trend: Expanding
Revenue growth: Declining
RSI zone: Neutral
50/200-day trend: Mixed
52-week position: The top quarter of its range

What our data shows for LITE

Our model validated 16 trailing price-to-earnings windows for LITE, built from quarterly earnings records.
Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $171.40–$949.93.
The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 52.

The exact numbers are one step away

The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for LITE
Exact discount / premium to today's price
The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes

See the exact fair value →

How Forward Fair Value works

TickrTrends computes a Forward Fair Value for every covered stock each week: a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple is applied to the analyst-consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year. Every input window is validated for continuity and every result is screened for plausibility before publication.

Recent LITE news

TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for LITE is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.

Stewart Asset Management: AI Infrastructure Drives Lumentum Holdings’ (LITE) Potential (finance.yahoo.com, 2026-09-08)
TickrTrends take: Lumentum Holdings operates in the technology sector where AI infrastructure investments have drawn significant market attention, yet TickrTrends currently assesses the stock as overvalued at its present price levels. The company's positioning around AI infrastructure demand represents a growth narrative that investors are pricing into the valuation, creating a gap between current market price and intrinsic value estimates according to TickrTrends analysis. For valuation-focused readers, the key consideration is whether Lumentum's actual revenue and earnings growth will materialize quickly enough to justify the premium at which the market currently values the business.
Lumentum Stock: The Earnings Are Catching Up With The 521% Rally (NASDAQ:LITE) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-09-08)
TickrTrends take: Lumentum has experienced significant stock appreciation, with the headline indicating a 521% rally that has driven the stock substantially higher. TickrTrends currently assesses LITE as overvalued within the Technology sector, suggesting the stock price has moved ahead of fundamental support. Investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether earnings growth can sustain the current price level or if a correction may occur if profit expansion fails to keep pace with the stock's rise.
A Look at Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE) After 4.0% Gain -- GF Value $166.49 vs Price $881.25 (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-04)
TickrTrends take: Lumentum Holdings Inc trades at a significant premium to its GF Value estimate, with the stock price substantially exceeding the estimated intrinsic value by a wide margin. TickrTrends' overvalued verdict aligns with this valuation gap, suggesting the market is pricing in considerable optimism about the optical and photonic technology company's future prospects. Valuation-focused investors should monitor whether the company's earnings growth and market conditions justify this premium, or whether the gap may narrow over time.

What people are saying

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TickrTrends weekly updates

2026-09-07 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-09-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-08-31 — TickrTrends initiated weekly Forward Fair Value coverage of this stock.

Frequently asked questions

Is LITE stock undervalued?

Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-09-07), LITE is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.

What is LITE's TickrTrends verdict?

LITE's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.

How does LITE compare to other Technology stocks?

LITE ranks #179 of 199 Technology stocks in TickrTrends' coverage when sorted by discount to Forward Fair Value.

Is LITE overbought or oversold?

LITE's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.

All Technology fair-value coverage →

Head-to-head comparisons

LITE vs ACLS · LITE vs ALNT · LITE vs BAND · LITE vs CSCO · LITE vs FFIV