Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
MRK price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
OvervaluedMRK is trading at a 10–25% premium to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $145.60
- Sector
- Healthcare
- 12-month range
- $82.49–$156.45
- Market cap
- $359B
- From 52-week high
- -6.9%
- Shares outstanding
- 2.47B
- Rank in Healthcare by discount to fair value
- #77 of 108
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Merck & Co., Inc. is a pharmaceutical company that discovers, develops, manufactures, and sells medicines, vaccines, and healthcare products for human and animal health. The company operates globally across multiple countries and regions, with significant operations in the United States and international markets.
MRK currently ranks #77 of 108 Healthcare stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Overvalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $359B
- P/E (trailing)
- 45x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $66.4B
- Net margin
- 4.8%
- EPS (TTM)
- $3.21
- Gross margin
- 73.5%
- Debt / equity
- 1.29
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 1.3%
- Shares outstanding
- 2.47B
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- C
- Margin trend
- Stable
- 52-week position
- The top quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 50 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $145.12
- 200-day average
- $124.87
- Moving-average state
- 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price above both averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $3.40 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 2.34%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 15
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-09-15
- Last payment date
- 2026-10-07
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-10-29 (pre-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 7 beat, 0 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+50.0%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+12.9%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+1.5%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+9.8%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+4.9%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+3.7%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+3.0%)
2024-09 ▬ met (0.0%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 19 buy · 8 hold · 0 sell (27 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $158
- Target vs last price
- +8.5%
What our data shows for MRK
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for MRK, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $82.49–$156.45.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 50.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for MRK
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent MRK news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for MRK is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Evaxion announces 89% vaccine target precision and sustained T-cell and clinical responses at three-year follow-up in phase 2 trial with personalized cancer vaccine EVX-01 (manilatimes.net, 2026-10-23)
TickrTrends take: Evaxion's positive three-year data for its personalized cancer vaccine candidate represents a potential pipeline advancement for investors monitoring MRK's oncology portfolio, though TickrTrends currently assesses MRK as overvalued within the Healthcare sector. Success in personalized cancer vaccines could create meaningful revenue opportunities if development progresses, but such clinical-stage outcomes typically require years before translating to material financial impact. Given MRK's current valuation standing, investors should track whether this program and similar pipeline developments can justify the company's current market price through future earnings realization. - European Commission Approves Merck's Keytruda-Padcev Combo for Bladder Cancer, MRK Stock Reacts (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-21)
TickrTrends take: Merck received European regulatory approval for a combination therapy addressing bladder cancer, representing an expansion of its Keytruda franchise in oncology. Given TickrTrends' current overvalued assessment of MRK, investors focused on valuation should monitor whether this approval catalyst translates into revenue growth sufficient to justify the stock's existing price multiple in the Healthcare sector. The clinical validation of combination approaches may support long-term competitive positioning, but near-term valuation compression could occur if market expectations were already pricing in regulatory success. - MRK DCF Analysis: Intrinsic Value $43 vs Price $146 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-19)
TickrTrends take: According to DCF analysis, MRK's intrinsic value is estimated at $43 per share while the stock trades at $146, representing a significant gap between calculated fundamental value and current market price. This valuation gap aligns with TickrTrends' current assessment that MRK is overvalued within the Healthcare sector. Investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether the stock price adjusts toward fundamental value estimates or whether market conditions and company performance may support the current premium over DCF-derived intrinsic value.
More MRK news
- AbbVie vs. Merck: Which Pharma Stock Offers Better Value? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-16)
- Merck’s Rally Reflects Renewed Confidence, but Has the Market Priced in Too Much? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-16)
- Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) Sells $18.2 Million More Eli Lilly on Oct. 9 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-13)
- iShares U.S. Healthcare ETF (IYH) Buys $17.4 Million More Eli Lilly on Oct. 8 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-12)
- Merck (MRK) Reports Positive One-Year Data from Phase 2b/3 Brunello Trial for Diabetic Macular Edema (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-11)
What people are saying
Follow the MRK conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is MRK stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), MRK is trading at a 10–25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is MRK's TickrTrends verdict?
MRK's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does MRK compare to other Healthcare stocks?
MRK ranks #77 of 108 Healthcare stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is MRK overbought or oversold?
MRK's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does MRK pay a dividend?
Yes. MRK paid $3.40 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 2.34% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 15 consecutive years. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-09-15.
When does MRK report earnings next?
MRK's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-10-29 (pre-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does MRK usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters MRK beat the consensus estimate 7 times and missed 0 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about MRK?
Of 27 analysts covering MRK, 19 rate it a buy, 8 a hold and 0 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $158 (+8.5% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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