Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) fair value analysis
S&P 500 & Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19
PAYX price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedPAYX is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $103.98
- Sector
- Technology
- 12-month range
- $85.57–$127.34
- Market cap
- $37B
- From 52-week high
- -18.3%
- Shares outstanding
- 356M
- Rank in Technology by discount to fair value
- #39 of 181
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Paychex, Inc. provides payroll processing, human resources, and business services to small and medium-sized businesses. The company operates primarily in the United States and serves hundreds of thousands of clients across various industries.
PAYX currently ranks #39 of 181 Technology stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $37B
- P/E (trailing)
- 18x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $6.6B
- Net margin
- 27.4%
- EPS (TTM)
- $5.63
- Gross margin
- 73.6%
- Debt / equity
- 1.25
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 9.9%
- Shares outstanding
- 356M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- C
- Margin trend
- Expanding
- 52-week position
- The lower-middle quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 49 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $114.54
- 200-day average
- $103.35
- Moving-average state
- 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price between the averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $4.54 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 4.37%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 12
- Next ex-dividend date
- 2026-10-26
- Last payment date
- 2026-08-28
Earnings how computed
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 7 beat, 1 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-08 ▲ beat (+0.8%)
2026-05 ▲ beat (+0.8%)
2026-02 ▲ beat (+2.4%)
2025-11 ▲ beat (+2.4%)
2025-08 ▲ beat (+1.7%)
2025-05 ▼ miss (-0.8%)
2025-02 ▲ beat (+0.7%)
2024-11 ▲ beat (+1.8%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 2 buy · 15 hold · 2 sell (19 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Hold-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $114
- Target vs last price
- +9.6%
What our data shows for PAYX
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for PAYX, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the middle of their 12-month price range of $85.57–$127.34.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 49.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for PAYX
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent PAYX news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for PAYX is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- ETFs Are Net Sellers of Paychex (PAYX) on Friday (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-20)
TickrTrends take: Paychex operates in the Technology sector and is currently assessed as undervalued according to TickrTrends valuation metrics. The net selling pressure from ETFs on Friday represents a notable divergence between institutional fund flows and the company's current valuation standing, which warrants observation of whether this selling activity reflects broader market sentiment or represents a temporary liquidity event. Valuation-focused investors should monitor whether this ETF selling pressure continues or reverses, as sustained outflows could either create additional undervaluation opportunities or signal emerging concerns about the company's fundamentals. - Director Joseph Velli Sells 7,839 Shares of Paychex Inc (PAYX) (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-16)
TickrTrends take: Director Joseph Velli's recent sale of shares in Paychex Inc represents typical insider trading activity that investors monitoring valuation should contextualize carefully. TickrTrends currently rates PAYX as undervalued within the Technology sector, suggesting the company's market price may not fully reflect its intrinsic value, making insider sales a data point rather than a reversal signal. Valuation-focused readers should track whether subsequent insider transactions or earnings announcements provide additional clarity on whether management views the current price as a buying or selling opportunity relative to the company's fundamental worth. - Paychex, Inc. Annual Shareholders Meeting Transcript (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-15)
TickrTrends take: Paychex held its annual shareholders meeting, providing investors with insights into company operations and strategic direction. As a Technology sector company currently assessed as undervalued by TickrTrends, shareholders and analysts may find the meeting transcript valuable for evaluating whether management commentary supports the current valuation assessment. The transcript could reveal details about growth initiatives, market positioning, or financial performance that explain why the stock trades below its estimated fair value.
More PAYX news
- Paychex (PAYX) Declares Quarterly Dividend of $1.19, Yielding 4.39% (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-15)
- SixFifty, a Paychex Company, Launches Agentic HR Compliance Specialist (manilatimes.net, 2026-10-13)
- Paychex (PAYX): Does Its Payroll Moat Make the Earnings Discount Attractive? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-12)
- Paychex (PAYX) vs ADP (ADP): Which Payment Giant Has a Wider Moat? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-10)
What people are saying
Follow the PAYX conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — PAYX has experienced a shift in its technical positioning this week, with its RSI zone moving from oversold to neutral territory. Additionally, the stock's sector discount rank improved from number 57 to number 52, indicating a marginal strengthening of its relative valuation position within the Technology sector. The current valuation verdict remains Undervalued.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — PAYX's technical indicators shifted this week, with the Relative Strength Index moving from the neutral zone into oversold territory. This change suggests increased downward momentum in the stock's recent trading activity. The current valuation assessment places PAYX in undervalued territory within the Technology sector.
- 2026-09-21 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for PAYX show a shift in momentum status this week, with the momentum indicator changing from A to none. The stock remains classified as undervalued according to the current valuation verdict. This change in momentum warrants monitoring as investors assess the company's near-term price movement trajectory.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is PAYX stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), PAYX is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is PAYX's TickrTrends verdict?
PAYX's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does PAYX compare to other Technology stocks?
PAYX ranks #39 of 181 Technology stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is PAYX overbought or oversold?
PAYX's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does PAYX pay a dividend?
Yes. PAYX paid $4.54 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 4.37% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 12 consecutive years. The next ex-dividend date on file is 2026-10-26.
Does PAYX usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters PAYX beat the consensus estimate 7 times and missed 1 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about PAYX?
Of 19 analysts covering PAYX, 2 rate it a buy, 15 a hold and 2 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $114 (+9.6% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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