Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) fair value analysis

Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed

Market cap

$368B

P/E (trailing)

34x

Revenue (TTM)

$74.7B

Net margin

14.5%

EPS (TTM)

$23.82

Gross margin

37.8%

Debt / equity

2.33

Revenue growth (3-yr avg)

7.4%

Shares outstanding

460M

Derived indicators how computed

Quality grade

D →

Margin trend

Stable

52-week position

The upper-middle quarter of its range

Technicals how computed

RSI (14-day)

34 · neutral

50-day average

$812.76

200-day average

$805.74

Moving-average state

50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price between the averages

Dividends how computed

Paid, last 12 months

$4.65 per share (3 payments)

Yield on last price

0.58%

Consecutive years of increases

12

Next ex-dividend date

2026-10-26

Last payment date

2026-08-19

Earnings how computed

Next earnings report

2026-10-29 (pre-market)

Last 8 quarters vs consensus

5 beat, 3 missed

Quarter by quarter

2026-06 ▲ beat (+30.7%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+19.4%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+9.6%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+9.5%)
2025-06 ▼ miss (-3.7%)
2025-03 ▼ miss (-2.1%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+2.2%)
2024-09 ▼ miss (-3.4%)

Analyst consensus how computed

This is not TickrTrends' verdict.

Analyst ratings

15 buy · 11 hold · 2 sell (28 analysts)

Consensus lean

Buy-leaning

Consensus price target

$951

Target vs last price

+18.8%

Recent CAT news

TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for CAT is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.

• Tokenized stock trading takes off overseas as Goldman, other U.S. companies object (cnbc.com, 2026-10-21)
  TickrTrends take: The emergence of tokenized stock trading platforms overseas represents a shift in market structure that could affect trading volumes and market access patterns for industrial equipment manufacturers like Caterpillar. Given TickrTrends' current assessment that CAT is overvalued, investors should monitor whether tokenization trends alter liquidity dynamics or create new pricing pressures in the industrial sector, particularly if U.S. regulatory resistance constrains domestic adoption. The competitive positioning and valuation multiples of CAT may face headwinds if alternative trading venues fragment the traditional market structure that currently supports its stock price.
• State Street SPDR Dow Jones (DIA) Sells Goldman Sachs and Caterpillar on Monday (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-21)
  TickrTrends take: Caterpillar was among notable positions reduced by a major Dow-tracking exchange-traded fund, which could signal shifting allocations among institutional investors in large-cap industrials. Given TickrTrends' current assessment that CAT is overvalued, such selling pressure from significant index funds warrants attention as a potential validation of valuation concerns or as a test of support levels. Investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether this type of institutional activity correlates with further downward price adjustments or stabilization near current levels.
• UBS Highlights AI Infrastructure Demand Boost for Industrial Giants Like Caterpillar (CAT) (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-19)
  TickrTrends take: UBS has identified AI infrastructure development as a demand driver for industrial companies including Caterpillar, which could support revenue growth in equipment and services tied to data center construction and expansion. Given TickrTrends' current assessment that CAT is overvalued, investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether the company's earnings growth materializes at a pace sufficient to justify current price levels in the Industrials sector. The timing of AI-related demand realization and its contribution to CAT's financial performance will be relevant data points for reassessing the valuation gap.

More CAT news

• CAT DCF Analysis: Intrinsic Value $672 vs Price $731 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-19)
• What State Street SPDR Dow Jones (DIA) Bought: Goldman Sachs Leads on Thursday (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-19)
• State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) Adds Caterpillar and GE on Thursday (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-19)
• State Street Industrial Select SPDR (XLI) Sells Caterpillar and GE on Oct. 14 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-16)
• Caterpillar (CAT) Shares Fall Amid Inflation Concerns and AI Sector Weakness (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-14)
• Caterpillar (CAT) Maintains Quarterly Dividend at $1.63 Amid Valuation Concerns (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-14)
• Caterpillar (CAT): A Cyclical Machine Maker Meets a Growth-Stock Valuation (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-13)
• A Look at Caterpillar Inc (CAT) After 3.3% Decline -- GF Value $464.54 vs Price $772.78 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-13)
• Caterpillar (CAT) and Deere (DE) Slide as Treasury Yields Surge. Why Valuations Matter (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-13)

What people are saying

Follow the CAT conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X

TickrTrends weekly updates

• 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
• 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
• 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
• 2026-10-10 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for CAT showed a decline in quality grade this week, moving from C to D. This downgrade reflects deteriorating fundamentals in the company's quality metrics. With a current valuation verdict of overvalued, the combination of weakened quality and elevated valuation multiples presents a less favorable risk-reward profile for the stock.
• 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
• 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
• 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
• 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.

Frequently asked questions

Is CAT stock undervalued?

Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), CAT is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.

What is CAT's TickrTrends verdict?

CAT's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.

How does CAT compare to other Industrials stocks?

CAT ranks #90 of 106 Industrials stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.

Is CAT overbought or oversold?

CAT's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.

Does CAT pay a dividend?

Yes. CAT paid $4.65 per share over the last twelve months (3 payments), a 0.58% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 12 consecutive years. The next ex-dividend date on file is 2026-10-26.

When does CAT report earnings next?

CAT's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-10-29 (pre-market), per the published earnings calendar.

Does CAT usually beat earnings estimates?

Over its last 8 reported quarters CAT beat the consensus estimate 5 times and missed 3 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.

What do analysts say about CAT?

Of 28 analysts covering CAT, 15 rate it a buy, 11 a hold and 2 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $951 (+18.8% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.

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All Industrials fair-value coverage →

Head-to-head comparisons

CAT vs BBCP · CAT vs BBSI · CAT vs DAL · CAT vs DE · CAT vs DXPE