Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD) fair value analysis
Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19
HTLD price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
OvervaluedHTLD is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $10.95
- Sector
- Industrials
- 12-month range
- $7.08–$16.22
- Market cap
- $847M
- From 52-week high
- -32.5%
- Shares outstanding
- 77.3M
- Rank in Industrials by discount to fair value
- #106 of 106
Last price is our stored weekly price from 2026-10-16, older than the 2026-10-19 run that built this page; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Heartland Express, Inc. is a transportation and logistics company that operates a fleet of trucks to provide trucking services across North America. The company specializes in regional and long-haul freight transportation for various industries throughout the United States.
HTLD currently ranks #106 of 106 Industrials stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Overvalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $847M
- P/E (trailing)
- n/m
- Revenue (TTM)
- $736M
- Net margin
- -3.0%
- EPS (TTM)
- $-0.09
- Gross margin
- 1.6%
- Debt / equity
- 0.19
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- -12.5%
- Shares outstanding
- 77.3M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- F
- Margin trend
- Contracting
- 52-week position
- The lower-middle quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 36 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $11.95
- 200-day average
- $12.30
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price below both averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $0.08 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 0.73%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 0 (no streak on complete calendar years)
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-09-25
- Last payment date
- 2026-10-07
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-10-30
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 5 beat, 3 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+600.0%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+53.8%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+25.0%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+8.3%)
2025-06 ▼ miss (-100.0%)
2025-03 ▼ miss (-80.0%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+50.0%)
2024-09 ▼ miss (-1100.0%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 1 buy · 3 hold · 2 sell (6 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Hold-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $13.2
- Target vs last price
- +20.5%
What our data shows for HTLD
- Our model validated 7 trailing price-to-earnings windows for HTLD, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the middle of their 12-month price range of $7.08–$16.22.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 36.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for HTLD
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent HTLD news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for HTLD is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- HTLD Maintained by UBS -- Price Target Lowered to $12.00 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-21)
TickrTrends take: UBS lowered its price target for HTLD to $12, which may reflect analyst concerns about near-term fundamentals or growth prospects in the Industrials sector. Given that TickrTrends currently rates HTLD as overvalued, this analyst action aligns with the broader valuation assessment and suggests the stock could face pressure if it trades above the new $12 target. Investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether the company's earnings growth and operational performance can justify current market pricing relative to this revised analyst benchmark. - Heartland Express (HTLD) Reports Q3 Results with Revenue Decline and Operating Ratio Improvement (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-20)
TickrTrends take: Heartland Express reported a revenue decline in Q3 alongside an improved operating ratio, which presents a mixed operational picture for investors evaluating the company's value. Given TickrTrends' current overvalued assessment, the revenue contraction warrants particular attention, as declining sales in the Industrials sector typically require offsetting efficiency gains to justify premium valuations. The operating ratio improvement suggests cost management is working, but valuation-focused readers should monitor whether margin gains can sustain without revenue growth in upcoming quarters. - Baird Downgrades Heartland Express (HTLD) Amid Rising Costs and Operational Challenges (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-20)
TickrTrends take: Baird's downgrade of Heartland Express reflects concerns about cost pressures that could weigh on profitability and operational efficiency in the transportation and logistics industry. Given TickrTrends' current assessment that HTLD is overvalued, investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether the company's earnings guidance and margin trends align with current market pricing. The combination of rising operational costs and an already elevated valuation multiple suggests limited margin for disappointment in upcoming quarterly results.
More HTLD news
- Heartland Express (HTLD) Q3 Revenue Misses Estimates Amid Operational Improvements (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-20)
- Heartland Express Inc (HTLD) Shares Fall 3.8% -- What GF Score of 67 Tells Investors (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-20)
- Heartland Express, Inc. Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend (manilatimes.net, 2026-09-15)
- Heartland Express, Inc. Announces Participation in Upcoming Conference (manilatimes.net, 2026-09-11)
- Heartland Express Inc. Earns 21st Quest for Quality Award (manilatimes.net, 2026-09-10)
What people are saying
Follow the HTLD conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — HTLD's 50/200-day trend state shifted from mixed to downtrend this week, indicating a change in the stock's momentum trajectory. The stock remains classified as overvalued based on current valuation metrics. The downtrend development represents a notable shift in technical positioning for the Industrials sector company.
- 2026-10-05 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is HTLD stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), HTLD is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is HTLD's TickrTrends verdict?
HTLD's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does HTLD compare to other Industrials stocks?
HTLD ranks #106 of 106 Industrials stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is HTLD overbought or oversold?
HTLD's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does HTLD pay a dividend?
Yes. HTLD paid $0.08 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 0.73% yield on TickrTrends' last price. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-09-25.
When does HTLD report earnings next?
HTLD's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-10-30, per the published earnings calendar.
Does HTLD usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters HTLD beat the consensus estimate 5 times and missed 3 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about HTLD?
Of 6 analysts covering HTLD, 1 rate it a buy, 3 a hold and 2 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $13.2 (+20.5% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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