Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
ITW price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
Fairly valuedITW is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $264.13
- Sector
- Industrials
- 12-month range
- $241.07–$299.60
- Market cap
- $75.2B
- From 52-week high
- -11.8%
- Shares outstanding
- 285M
- Rank in Industrials by discount to fair value
- #48 of 106
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Illinois Tool Works Inc. is a diversified manufacturer that produces engineered fasteners and components, fluids, polymers, and equipment for welding, testing, and other industrial applications. The company operates manufacturing facilities and sales offices across North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and other international markets.
ITW currently ranks #48 of 106 Industrials stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Fairly valued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $75.2B
- P/E (trailing)
- 24x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $16.5B
- Net margin
- 19.4%
- EPS (TTM)
- $11.03
- Gross margin
- 44.1%
- Debt / equity
- 3.35
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 2.2%
- Shares outstanding
- 285M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- C
- Margin trend
- Stable
- 52-week position
- The lower-middle quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 59 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $274.04
- 200-day average
- $269.44
- Moving-average state
- 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price between the averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $6.55 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 2.48%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 19
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-09-30
- Last payment date
- 2026-10-09
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-10-27 (pre-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 8 beat, 0 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+1.4%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+3.9%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+1.1%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+3.3%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+0.8%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+1.3%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+1.6%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+4.7%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 2 buy · 11 hold · 3 sell (16 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Hold-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $295
- Target vs last price
- +11.7%
What our data shows for ITW
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for ITW, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the middle of their 12-month price range of $241.07–$299.60.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 59.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for ITW
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent ITW news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for ITW is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- ITW Schedules Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Webcast (manilatimes.net, 2026-10-15)
TickrTrends take: ITW announced it will host a webinar to discuss its third quarter 2026 results, providing investors with an opportunity to hear directly from management about operational performance and financial outcomes. Given that TickrTrends currently assesses ITW as fairly valued, observers may focus on whether third quarter results support the current valuation or suggest a shift in the company's fundamental position within the Industrials sector. Valuation-focused investors typically use earnings webcasts to evaluate management guidance, margin trends, and capital allocation decisions that could influence whether the fairly valued assessment remains appropriate. - ITW DCF Analysis: Intrinsic Value $151 vs Price $266 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-14)
TickrTrends take: Illinois Tool Works trades at a significant premium to its discounted cash flow-derived intrinsic value, with the market price substantially exceeding the calculated fair value estimate. A valuation-focused investor should monitor whether ITW's operational performance and earnings growth justify this elevated multiple, as any disappointment in cash flow generation could pressure the stock toward its DCF valuation. The Industrials sector context suggests that investors are pricing in considerable growth expectations or competitive advantages that extend beyond the company's current cash generation metrics. - Illinois Tool Works (ITW): Innovation Gains or an Industrial Upturn? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-12)
TickrTrends take: Illinois Tool Works operates in the Industrials sector where cyclical growth patterns significantly influence valuation multiples. The company's current Fairly valued assessment suggests the market has already priced in reasonable expectations for organic growth and operational improvements, leaving limited margin for valuation expansion unless the company demonstrates outsized innovation gains beyond typical sector recovery cycles. Investors focused on valuation should monitor whether ITW's innovation initiatives can sustain margin expansion independently of broader industrial demand trends, as this would be necessary to justify multiples above fair value levels.
More ITW news
- Illinois Tool Works Inc (ITW) Stock Down 3.7% -- Now Undervalued? GF Score: 89/100 (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-30)
- Deutsche Bank Issues Sell Recommendation on Illinois Tool Works (ITW) Amid Guidance Concerns (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-30)
What people are saying
Follow the ITW conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — ITW's quality grade improved this week from D to C, while its sector discount rank strengthened from number 61 to number 53 within the Industrials sector. The company remains assessed as fairly valued according to current valuation metrics. These improvements in quality assessment and relative valuation positioning represent positive movement in TickrTrends' derived indicators for the week.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for ITW showed a shift this week as the relative strength index moved from oversold territory into neutral range, suggesting a change in near-term momentum conditions. The stock maintains a fairly valued assessment based on current valuation metrics. This transition in the RSI zone indicates reduced downward pressure on the stock compared to the previous week.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is ITW stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), ITW is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value and screens as fairly valued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is ITW's TickrTrends verdict?
ITW's current verdict is Fairly valued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does ITW compare to other Industrials stocks?
ITW ranks #48 of 106 Industrials stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is ITW overbought or oversold?
ITW's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does ITW pay a dividend?
Yes. ITW paid $6.55 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 2.48% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 19 consecutive years. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-09-30.
When does ITW report earnings next?
ITW's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-10-27 (pre-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does ITW usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters ITW beat the consensus estimate 8 times and missed 0 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about ITW?
Of 16 analysts covering ITW, 2 rate it a buy, 11 a hold and 3 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $295 (+11.7% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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