Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
LUV price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedLUV is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $41.66
- Sector
- Industrials
- 12-month range
- $29.67–$54.80
- Market cap
- $20.4B
- From 52-week high
- -24.0%
- Shares outstanding
- 489M
- Rank in Industrials by discount to fair value
- #96 of 106
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Southwest Airlines Co. operates as a major commercial airline carrier in the United States, providing passenger air transportation services. The company serves destinations throughout North America, including the continental United States, Hawaii, and Mexico.
LUV currently ranks #96 of 106 Industrials stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $20.4B
- P/E (trailing)
- 20x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $30.1B
- Net margin
- 2.8%
- EPS (TTM)
- $2.08
- Gross margin
- 177.3%
- Debt / equity
- 0.97
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 9.7%
- Shares outstanding
- 489M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- F
- Margin trend
- Expanding
- 52-week position
- The lower-middle quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 45 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $41.16
- 200-day average
- $43.50
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price between the averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $0.72 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 1.73%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 0 (no streak on complete calendar years)
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-09-03
- Last payment date
- 2026-09-24
Earnings how computed
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 6 beat, 2 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+80.8%)
2026-03 ▼ miss (-4.3%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+1.8%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+375.0%)
2025-06 ▼ miss (-15.7%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+31.6%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+21.7%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+275.0%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 11 buy · 11 hold · 3 sell (25 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Hold-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $49.2
- Target vs last price
- +18.1%
What our data shows for LUV
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for LUV, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the middle of their 12-month price range of $29.67–$54.80.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 45.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for LUV
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent LUV news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for LUV is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Is Southwest Airlines (LUV) Undervalued After Q3 Earnings Miss? GF Score: 85/100 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-21)
TickrTrends take: Southwest Airlines trades at a valuation that TickrTrends currently assesses as undervalued, which aligns with investor interest following the company's third quarter earnings shortfall. A valuation-focused reader should monitor whether management's forward guidance and capacity decisions will support a narrowing of the gap between current market pricing and intrinsic value estimates. The industrials sector context matters here, as airline operators face distinct cyclical pressures that can rapidly shift valuation multiples based on fuel costs, demand signals, and operational efficiency metrics. - Southwest Airlines (LUV) Q3 Earnings Beat Expectations, Signals Mixed Valuation Dynamics (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-21)
TickrTrends take: Southwest Airlines beat third quarter earnings expectations, which typically signals operational strength that could support a higher valuation multiple. However, the mixed dynamics noted in the earnings report suggest that investors should monitor whether improved profitability translates into sustained margin expansion or faces headwinds from fuel costs and labor expenses. Given TickrTrends' current undervalued assessment, a valuation-focused reader should track whether management guidance and industry capacity trends provide clarity on whether the current valuation discount adequately reflects the airline's competitive positioning within the Industrials sector. - Southwest Airlines (LUV) Shares Rise 2% After Q3 Earnings Beat Expectations (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-21)
TickrTrends take: Southwest Airlines shares appreciated following stronger-than-expected third quarter results, which aligns with TickrTrends' current assessment that the stock trades below its derived valuation. For investors focused on valuation metrics, the earnings beat provides a data point to monitor whether the company's operational performance can sustain or improve upon the valuation gap that currently exists in the market. As an industrials sector operator, Southwest's ability to translate operational improvements into consistent financial results will be relevant for tracking whether the undervaluation designation remains justified.
More LUV news
- Southwest Airlines (LUV) Prepares for Q3 Earnings Amid Shifting Market Expectations (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-16)
- AM Best Affirms Credit Ratings of Triple Crown Assurance Co. (ambest.com, 2026-10-09)
- LUV Maintains Buy Rating -- Price Target Raised to $53.00 by UBS (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-24)
- Is Southwest Airlines Stock Outperforming the Nasdaq? (finance.yahoo.com, 2026-09-22)
What people are saying
Follow the LUV conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is LUV stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), LUV is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is LUV's TickrTrends verdict?
LUV's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does LUV compare to other Industrials stocks?
LUV ranks #96 of 106 Industrials stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is LUV overbought or oversold?
LUV's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does LUV pay a dividend?
Yes. LUV paid $0.72 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 1.73% yield on TickrTrends' last price. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-09-03.
Does LUV usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters LUV beat the consensus estimate 6 times and missed 2 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about LUV?
Of 25 analysts covering LUV, 11 rate it a buy, 11 a hold and 3 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $49.2 (+18.1% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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