Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) fair value analysis
Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19
MTCH price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedMTCH is trading at a 10–25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $42.95
- Sector
- Communication Services
- 12-month range
- $28.90–$44.40
- Market cap
- $10B
- From 52-week high
- -3.3%
- Shares outstanding
- 233M
- Rank in Communication Services by discount to fair value
- #13 of 29
Last price is our stored weekly price from 2026-10-16, older than the 2026-10-19 run that built this page; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Match Group, Inc. operates a portfolio of online dating and social networking platforms that connect people for relationships and social interaction. The company serves users across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and other regions globally through its various branded applications and websites.
MTCH currently ranks #13 of 29 Communication Services stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $10B
- P/E (trailing)
- 12x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $3.51B
- Net margin
- 20.2%
- EPS (TTM)
- $3.58
- Gross margin
- 76.1%
- Debt / equity
- 0.00
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- -1.1%
- Shares outstanding
- 233M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- B
- Margin trend
- Expanding
- 52-week position
- The top quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 50 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $40.94
- 200-day average
- $35.94
- Moving-average state
- 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price above both averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $0.79 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 1.84%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 0 (no streak on complete calendar years)
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-10-05
- Last payment date
- 2026-10-20
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-11-02 (post-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 3 beat, 4 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▼ miss (-5.3%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+12.8%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+3.9%)
2025-09 ▼ miss (-8.8%)
2025-06 ▼ miss (-7.8%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+3.0%)
2024-12 ▼ miss (-1.2%)
2024-09 ▬ met (0.0%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 7 buy · 13 hold · 0 sell (20 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Hold-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $42.1
- Target vs last price
- -2.0%
What our data shows for MTCH
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for MTCH, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $28.90–$44.40.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 50.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for MTCH
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent MTCH news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for MTCH is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Evercore ISI Upgrades Match Group (MTCH) on Tinder Growth and Online Dating Trends (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-19)
TickrTrends take: Evercore ISI's upgrade of Match Group reflects analyst confidence in Tinder's expansion prospects within the broader online dating market. This positive assessment aligns with TickrTrends' current undervalued designation for MTCH in the Communication Services sector, suggesting the market may not yet be pricing in the full potential of the company's flagship platform. Investors focused on valuation should monitor whether this upgrade contributes to narrowing the gap between the stock's current price and its fundamental value drivers related to user growth and monetization trends. - Match Group: I Am Swiping Right On The Stock (Buy) (NASDAQ:MTCH) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-09-30)
TickrTrends take: Match Group operates in the Communication Services sector and currently carries an undervalued designation according to TickrTrends' analysis. The positive outlook reflected in recent commentary suggests that market participants may be recognizing value in the company's fundamentals that is not yet fully reflected in its current price. Investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether the stock's price movement closes the gap that the undervaluation assessment identifies. - Businesses Shift to Open-Weight AI Models, Match Group (MTCH) Positioned Amid Cost-Saving Trend (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-28)
TickrTrends take: Match Group operates in the Communication Services sector where the shift toward open-weight AI models represents a significant cost structure opportunity that aligns with TickrTrends' undervalued assessment. As businesses adopt less expensive open-source alternatives to proprietary AI systems, Match Group's ability to integrate these cost-efficient technologies into its dating and social platforms could meaningfully improve operating margins without requiring equivalent increases in capital expenditure. Valuation-focused investors should monitor whether the company can translate these potential efficiency gains into earnings growth that justifies current market pricing.
More MTCH news
- Match Group Inc (MTCH) Stock Down 3.4% but Still Overvalued -- GF Score: 80/100 (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-22)
What people are saying
Follow the MTCH conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — MTCH's 50/200-day trend state shifted from mixed to uptrend this week, indicating stronger near-term momentum relative to the longer-term trajectory. The stock remains positioned as undervalued according to current valuation metrics. This uptrend development suggests improved technical positioning within the Communication Services sector.
- 2026-10-05 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — MTCH's valuation assessment shifted this week as TickrTrends' DCF cross-check band moved from fairly valued to overvalued, though the overall current valuation verdict remains undervalued. This divergence between the DCF band and the primary valuation verdict suggests mixed signals within the company's derived indicators for the Communication Services sector.
- 2026-09-21 — MTCH's relative strength index moved from overbought territory into neutral range this week, suggesting reduced upward momentum in the stock. The Communication Services company maintains an undervalued status according to TickrTrends' derived indicators, though the shift toward neutral RSI readings indicates the recent strength in the stock may be moderating.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is MTCH stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), MTCH is trading at a 10–25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is MTCH's TickrTrends verdict?
MTCH's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does MTCH compare to other Communication Services stocks?
MTCH ranks #13 of 29 Communication Services stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is MTCH overbought or oversold?
MTCH's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does MTCH pay a dividend?
Yes. MTCH paid $0.79 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 1.84% yield on TickrTrends' last price. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-10-05.
When does MTCH report earnings next?
MTCH's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-11-02 (post-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does MTCH usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters MTCH beat the consensus estimate 3 times and missed 4 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about MTCH?
Of 20 analysts covering MTCH, 7 rate it a buy, 13 a hold and 0 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $42.1 (-2.0% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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