AAON, Inc. (AAON) fair value analysis
Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19
AAON price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedAAON is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $73.73
- Sector
- Industrials
- 12-month range
- $73.49–$148.25
- Market cap
- $6.08B
- From 52-week high
- -50.3%
- Shares outstanding
- 82.5M
- Rank in Industrials by discount to fair value
- #6 of 106
Last price is our stored weekly price from 2026-10-16, older than the 2026-10-19 run that built this page; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
AAON, Inc. manufactures heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems primarily for commercial and industrial applications. The company operates in the United States and serves customers across North America through its manufacturing and distribution facilities.
AAON currently ranks #6 of 106 Industrials stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $6.08B
- P/E (trailing)
- 38x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $1.93B
- Net margin
- 8.2%
- EPS (TTM)
- $1.93
- Gross margin
- 24.3%
- Debt / equity
- 0.46
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 33.7%
- Shares outstanding
- 82.5M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- D
- Margin trend
- Contracting
- 52-week position
- The bottom quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 41 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $81.34
- 200-day average
- $98.20
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price below both averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $0.40 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 0.54%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 1
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-09-04
- Last payment date
- 2026-09-25
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-11-05
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 5 beat, 3 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+32.7%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+65.5%)
2025-12 ▼ miss (-13.3%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+15.6%)
2025-06 ▼ miss (-33.3%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+54.2%)
2024-12 ▼ miss (-43.7%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+10.5%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 5 buy · 1 hold · 0 sell (6 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $135
- Target vs last price
- +83.1%
What our data shows for AAON
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for AAON, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $73.49–$148.25.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 41.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for AAON
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent AAON news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for AAON is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- AAON, Inc. (AAON) Helps Offset Industrial Weakness (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-22)
TickrTrends take: AAON operates in the Industrials sector, which has faced headwinds that the company is helping to counterbalance through its operational performance. Given TickrTrends' current assessment of AAON as undervalued, investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether the company's ability to offset broader industrial weakness translates into earnings growth that justifies closing any valuation gap. The company's relative strength amid sector challenges may indicate either fundamental resilience that the market has underpriced or temporary benefits that could reverse if industrial conditions deteriorate further. - AAON Inc (AAON) Stock Down 4.6% -- Now Undervalued? GF Score: 89/100 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-17)
TickrTrends take: AAON's recent stock decline aligns with TickrTrends' current assessment that the company remains undervalued within the Industrials sector. The stock's pullback may present a relevant data point for investors monitoring valuation metrics, particularly given the company's strong GF Score of 89 out of 100. Readers focused on valuation dynamics should track whether this price movement reflects temporary market sentiment or substantive changes in the company's fundamental positioning. - AAON Inc (AAON) Shares Fall 6.6% -- What GF Score of 89 Tells Investors (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-15)
TickrTrends take: AAON's recent share decline occurs while TickrTrends currently identifies the stock as undervalued within the Industrials sector, suggesting the pullback may represent a potential opportunity for value-focused investors. The company's high GF Score indicates strong fundamental quality, which could support the undervalued thesis if the recent weakness reflects temporary market sentiment rather than deteriorating business conditions. Investors should monitor whether this valuation gap persists or narrows as the company reports upcoming financial results.
More AAON news
- AAON Maintains Rating by Oppenheimer -- Price Target Lowered to $115 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-14)
- AAON Inc (AAON) Shares Fall 4.2% -- What GF Score of 90 Tells Investors (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-28)
- AAON Inc (AAON) Shares Surge 5.7% -- What GF Score of 90 Tells Investors (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-25)
- AAON Inc (AAON) Stock Up 3.8% and Still Undervalued -- GF Score: 90/100 (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-22)
What people are saying
Follow the AAON conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — AAON's technical positioning weakened this week as the stock transitioned from a mixed trend state to a downtrend based on its 50/200-day moving average relationship. The company's relative valuation improved in the sector standings, moving from rank 20 to rank 9 in discount positioning. Despite the deteriorating trend, AAON maintains an undervalued verdict on a valuation basis.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-05 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — AAON's valuation metrics shifted this week, with the 50/200-day trend state moving from a downtrend to a mixed outlook, suggesting reduced downward momentum. The stock's sector discount rank declined from number 7 to number 23, indicating it has become relatively less discounted compared to other industrials companies. Despite these weakened trend indicators, AAON maintains an undervalued verdict on current valuation measures.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is AAON stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), AAON is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is AAON's TickrTrends verdict?
AAON's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does AAON compare to other Industrials stocks?
AAON ranks #6 of 106 Industrials stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is AAON overbought or oversold?
AAON's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does AAON pay a dividend?
Yes. AAON paid $0.40 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 0.54% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 1 consecutive year. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-09-04.
When does AAON report earnings next?
AAON's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-11-05, per the published earnings calendar.
Does AAON usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters AAON beat the consensus estimate 5 times and missed 3 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about AAON?
Of 6 analysts covering AAON, 5 rate it a buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $135 (+83.1% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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