AMERISAFE, Inc. (AMSF) fair value analysis
Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19
AMSF price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedAMSF is trading at a 10–25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $25.25
- Sector
- Financial Services
- 12-month range
- $23.28–$41.57
- Market cap
- $468M
- From 52-week high
- -39.3%
- Shares outstanding
- 18.5M
- Rank in Financial Services by discount to fair value
- #160 of 167
Last price is our stored weekly price from 2026-10-16, older than the 2026-10-19 run that built this page; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
AMERISAFE, Inc. is a specialty insurance company that provides workers' compensation insurance products primarily to small to mid-sized employers in the United States. The company operates across all 50 states and focuses on serving specific industries including construction, energy, and other high-risk occupational sectors.
AMSF currently ranks #160 of 167 Financial Services stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 11 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $468M
- P/E (trailing)
- 13x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $336M
- Net margin
- 14.0%
- EPS (TTM)
- $2.00
- Gross margin
- -36.6%
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 8.9%
- Shares outstanding
- 18.5M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- F
- Margin trend
- Contracting
- 52-week position
- The bottom quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 58 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $25.36
- 200-day average
- $31.55
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price below both averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $2.62 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 10.38%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 0 (no streak on complete calendar years)
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-09-11
- Last payment date
- 2026-09-25
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-10-28 (post-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 1 beat, 5 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▼ miss (-17.0%)
2026-03 ▼ miss (-7.4%)
2025-12 ▼ miss (-15.0%)
2025-09 ▼ miss (-1.8%)
2025-06 ▼ miss (-1.9%)
2025-03 ▬ met (0.0%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+7.5%)
2024-09 ▬ met (0.0%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 1 buy · 2 hold · 0 sell (3 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Hold-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $33.3
- Target vs last price
- +31.9%
What our data shows for AMSF
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for AMSF, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $23.28–$41.57.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 58.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for AMSF
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent AMSF news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for AMSF is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- AMSF Maintains Rating by Truist Securities -- Price Target Lowered to $27 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-13)
TickrTrends take: Truist Securities' decision to lower AMSF's price target to $27 while maintaining its rating suggests the analyst sees selective near-term headwinds despite maintaining conviction in the underlying business. Against TickrTrends' current Undervalued assessment, this price target adjustment underscores the importance of monitoring whether the Financial Services sector analyst community is recalibrating growth or profitability expectations that could inform the valuation gap. Investors focused on valuation metrics should track how this revised target compares to consensus estimates and whether additional analyst adjustments follow, as these shifts can precede broader market repricing. - AMSF Maintained by Citizens -- Price Target Lowered to $40.00 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-12)
TickrTrends take: Citizens maintained its rating on AMSF while reducing the price target to $40, which reflects a reassessment of the company's near-term prospects despite maintaining overall confidence in the stock. Given TickrTrends' current undervalued verdict for this Financial Services sector company, the lowered price target suggests that even at reduced valuation levels, the stock may still offer value relative to fundamental metrics. Investors focused on valuation should monitor whether the market prices AMSF in line with the new $40 target or continues to trade below it, as this gap will be indicative of whether the undervalued assessment remains intact. - Neuberger Berman Group LLC Trims AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF) Stake to 569 Shares -- Stock Trades 38% Below GF Value (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-11)
TickrTrends take: AMERISAFE Inc trades at a significant discount to its estimated intrinsic value, which aligns with TickrTrends' assessment that the stock is fairly valued despite the substantial gap. For valuation-focused investors in the Financial Services sector, this divergence between market price and calculated value suggests monitoring whether the discount reflects genuine fundamental concerns or a potential opportunity. The recent institutional stake reduction by Neuberger Berman warrants attention as a signal of how major investors are positioning themselves relative to current valuations.
What people are saying
Follow the AMSF conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — TickrTrends' derived indicators show that AMSF's sector discount rank declined this week, moving from #43 to #52 among Financial Services companies. The stock maintains an undervalued status according to current valuation metrics.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — AMSF's technical positioning improved this week as its relative strength index moved from oversold to neutral territory, suggesting reduced downward momentum. The stock's valuation ranking within the Financial Services sector shifted from number 36 to number 44 in terms of sector discount, indicating it is trading at a lesser discount relative to peer companies. Despite these changes, the stock maintains an undervalued status according to current analysis.
- 2026-10-05 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for AMSF showed notable shifts this week. The relative strength index moved from the neutral zone into oversold territory, while the stock's sector discount ranking improved from number 43 to number 33 among Financial Services companies. With a current valuation verdict of undervalued, these technical movements reflect changing momentum conditions for the stock.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is AMSF stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), AMSF is trading at a 10–25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is AMSF's TickrTrends verdict?
AMSF's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does AMSF compare to other Financial Services stocks?
AMSF ranks #160 of 167 Financial Services stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is AMSF overbought or oversold?
AMSF's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does AMSF pay a dividend?
Yes. AMSF paid $2.62 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 10.38% yield on TickrTrends' last price. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-09-11.
When does AMSF report earnings next?
AMSF's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-10-28 (post-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does AMSF usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters AMSF beat the consensus estimate 1 times and missed 5 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about AMSF?
Of 3 analysts covering AMSF, 1 rate it a buy, 2 a hold and 0 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $33.3 (+31.9% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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