AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) fair value analysis
Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19
AVAV price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedAVAV is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $121.79
- Sector
- Industrials
- 12-month range
- $120.60–$392.86
- Market cap
- $6.19B
- From 52-week high
- -69.0%
- Shares outstanding
- 50.8M
- Rank in Industrials by discount to fair value
- #98 of 106
Last price is our stored weekly price from 2026-10-16, older than the 2026-10-19 run that built this page; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
AeroVironment, Inc. is a manufacturer of unmanned aircraft systems and related equipment used for commercial, governmental, and defense applications. The company operates primarily in the United States and serves customers worldwide through its design, development, and production of robotics and drone technology platforms.
AVAV currently ranks #98 of 106 Industrials stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $6.19B
- P/E (trailing)
- 35x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $2B
- Net margin
- -10.1%
- EPS (TTM)
- $3.51
- Gross margin
- 25.9%
- Debt / equity
- 0.19
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 55.2%
- Shares outstanding
- 50.8M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- D
- Margin trend
- Contracting
- 52-week position
- The bottom quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 17 · oversold
- 50-day average
- $153.20
- 200-day average
- $195.53
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price below both averages
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-12-08
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 3 beat, 5 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-07 ▲ beat (+168.2%)
2026-04 ▲ beat (+20.3%)
2026-01 ▼ miss (-7.2%)
2025-10 ▼ miss (-44.3%)
2025-07 ▼ miss (-5.9%)
2025-04 ▲ beat (+15.8%)
2025-01 ▼ miss (-58.3%)
2024-10 ▼ miss (-30.9%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 17 buy · 3 hold · 0 sell (20 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $216
- Target vs last price
- +77.4%
What our data shows for AVAV
- Our model validated 14 trailing price-to-earnings windows for AVAV, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $120.60–$392.86.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at an oversold 17.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for AVAV
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent AVAV news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for AVAV is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Is AeroVironment Inc (AVAV) a Bargain After 3.2% Drop? GF Value Says Undervalued (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-19)
TickrTrends take: AeroVironment operates in the Industrials sector where operational efficiency and competitive positioning directly influence intrinsic value assessments. TickrTrends currently classifies the stock as undervalued, which aligns with valuation-focused analysis suggesting the recent price movement may have created a gap between market price and estimated fair value. Investors monitoring valuation metrics should track whether the company's fundamentals support the undervaluation designation or if market conditions warrant reassessment of its intrinsic worth. - AVAV Maintained by Citizens -- Price Target Lowered to $170 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-19)
TickrTrends take: Citizens maintained its rating on AeroVironment while lowering the price target to $170, a development that occurs within a context where TickrTrends currently assesses AVAV as undervalued. For investors focused on valuation metrics, this price target adjustment represents an important data point to reconcile against the current undervalued designation, particularly given how analyst price targets and intrinsic value estimates can diverge in industrials stocks. Tracking whether subsequent analyst moves align with or diverge from the current valuation assessment will be relevant for understanding market consensus on AVAV's fair value trajectory. - AVAV Initiated Coverage by Macquarie -- Rating Set to Outperform (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-16)
TickrTrends take: Macquarie's initiation of coverage with an Outperform rating suggests analyst confidence in AVAV's business prospects, which aligns with TickrTrends' current Undervalued assessment for this Industrials sector company. For valuation-focused investors, the initiation provides a potential catalyst for reassessment, as analyst coverage can influence how the market prices the company relative to its fundamentals. Monitoring whether this rating attracts institutional attention and how it affects trading activity will be relevant to tracking whether the market's valuation gap closes in the coming periods.
More AVAV news
- AeroVironment: The Value Is There, Growth Will Force The Market To Notice (NASDAQ:AVAV) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-15)
- AeroVironment (AVAV) Signs MOU with Alpha Unmanned Systems to Boost JUMP 20 Support in Europe (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-14)
- AeroVironment (AVAV) Integrates Elsight's Halo Tech into Mayhem 10 System to Enhance Communications (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-14)
- A Look at AeroVironment Inc (AVAV) After 4.1% Decline -- GF Value $256.88 vs Price $131.51 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-12)
- Can LOCUST Lasers Power the Next Leg of AeroVironment (AVAV) Growth? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-08)
- Should Investors Buy the Dip in AeroVironment (AVAV) or Wait for Profitability? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-06)
What people are saying
Follow the AVAV conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — AVAV's technical positioning shifted this week as its relative strength index moved into oversold territory, indicating potential downward momentum in recent trading. The stock's valuation discount relative to its Industrials sector peers strengthened notably, with its ranking improving from number 15 to number 8, suggesting it now trades at a more attractive price relative to comparable companies. Combined with the current undervalued verdict, these indicators reflect a stock that has declined in price while maintaining favorable value metrics within its sector.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-05 — AVAV has moved up in the sector discount ranking this week, improving from position 24 to position 18 among Industrials stocks. The company maintains an undervalued status according to TickrTrends' derived indicators. This advancement in the discount ranking suggests AVAV's valuation metrics have become more favorable relative to other companies in its sector.
- 2026-09-28 — AVAV's sector discount rank declined from #17 to #24 this week, indicating a reduced valuation advantage relative to other Industrials companies. Despite this shift in relative positioning, the stock maintains an Undervalued verdict according to TickrTrends' derived indicators.
- 2026-09-21 — AVAV's relative strength index moved out of oversold territory into neutral zone this week, suggesting reduced downward momentum in the stock. The industrial company maintains an undervalued status according to TickrTrends' derived valuation metrics.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is AVAV stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), AVAV is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is AVAV's TickrTrends verdict?
AVAV's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does AVAV compare to other Industrials stocks?
AVAV ranks #98 of 106 Industrials stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is AVAV overbought or oversold?
AVAV's 14-day RSI is in the oversold zone on TickrTrends' latest weekly data.
When does AVAV report earnings next?
AVAV's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-12-08, per the published earnings calendar.
Does AVAV usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters AVAV beat the consensus estimate 3 times and missed 5 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about AVAV?
Of 20 analysts covering AVAV, 17 rate it a buy, 3 a hold and 0 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $216 (+77.4% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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