AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) fair value analysis

Nasdaq · Updated 2026-09-07

AeroVironment, Inc. is a manufacturer of unmanned aircraft systems and related equipment used for commercial, governmental, and defense applications. The company operates primarily in the United States and serves customers worldwide through its design, development, and production of robotics and drone technology platforms.

Forward Fair Value verdict

Undervalued

Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model, AVAV is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value.

AVAV currently ranks #21 of 107 Industrials stocks by discount to Forward Fair Value. It has screened as Undervalued for 3 consecutive weekly runs.

Last price: $159.18
Sector: Industrials
12-month range: $159.18–$367.88

Derived indicators

Coarse bands from TickrTrends' weekly models; exact figures are part of the full report.

Quality grade: D
Leverage: Low
Margin trend: Contracting
Revenue growth: High
RSI zone: Neutral
50/200-day trend: Mixed
52-week position: The bottom quarter of its range

What our data shows for AVAV

Our model validated 14 trailing price-to-earnings windows for AVAV, built from quarterly earnings records.
Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $159.18–$367.88.
The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 39.

The exact numbers are one step away

The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for AVAV
Exact discount / premium to today's price
The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes

See the exact fair value →

How Forward Fair Value works

TickrTrends computes a Forward Fair Value for every covered stock each week: a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple is applied to the analyst-consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year. Every input window is validated for continuity and every result is screened for plausibility before publication.

Recent AVAV news

TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for AVAV is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.

Markets Mixed After Oil Spike and Hot Jobs Report — CPI Next (upsidetrader.com, 2026-09-07)
TickrTrends take: The mixed market reaction to oil price movements and employment data creates a backdrop of economic uncertainty that typically influences how investors reassess valuations across industrial stocks like AVAV. Given TickrTrends' current undervalued designation for AVAV, valuation-focused readers should monitor the upcoming CPI report, as inflation readings directly impact cost structures and margin expectations for industrial companies. Shifts in inflation data could either reinforce the current undervalued assessment or prompt recalibration of what the market is willing to pay for industrial sector exposure.
Army To Spend $465 Million On 'Group 3 Killer' Anti-Drone Laser (zerohedge.com, 2026-09-06)
TickrTrends take: The Army's commitment to spend $465 million on advanced anti-drone laser technology signals sustained government investment in the defense sector where AVAV operates. TickrTrends currently rates AVAV as undervalued within the Industrials sector, and this large-scale military spending initiative on related technologies could influence how the market values companies positioned in adjacent defense and industrial markets. Investors focused on valuation should monitor whether AVAV's business model and contract pipeline stand to benefit from this government spending trend, as such defense budget allocations often reshape competitive dynamics across the industrial technology space.
AeroVironment: Brace For An Intense September And Revenue Rise (NASDAQ:AVAV) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-09-05)
TickrTrends take: AeroVironment faces a period of operational intensity in September while the market anticipates revenue growth, which could test whether current market pricing reflects the company's earnings expansion potential. For valuation-focused investors, the key will be whether the revenue increase materializes at levels that justify TickrTrends' undervalued assessment or whether execution challenges during this busy period narrow the gap between current price and intrinsic value. The timing of these developments in September provides a near-term catalyst that could validate or challenge the current undervaluation thesis for this Industrials sector company.

What people are saying

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TickrTrends weekly updates

2026-09-07 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-09-06 — # AVAV Weekly Indicator Summary AVAV's 50/200-day trend state shifted from downtrend to mixed this week, reflecting a change in the stock's intermediate momentum dynamics. The stock currently carries an undervalued verdict according to TickrTrends' derived indicators.
2026-08-31 — TickrTrends initiated weekly Forward Fair Value coverage of this stock.

Frequently asked questions

Is AVAV stock undervalued?

Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-09-07), AVAV is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.

What is AVAV's TickrTrends verdict?

AVAV's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.

How does AVAV compare to other Industrials stocks?

AVAV ranks #21 of 107 Industrials stocks in TickrTrends' coverage when sorted by discount to Forward Fair Value.

Is AVAV overbought or oversold?

AVAV's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.

All Industrials fair-value coverage →

Head-to-head comparisons

AVAV vs AAON · AVAV vs CMCO · AVAV vs CPRT · AVAV vs CTAS · AVAV vs GNRC