Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) fair value analysis
Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19
BLBD price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
Fairly valuedBLBD is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $57.39
- Sector
- Industrials
- 12-month range
- $46.59–$81.50
- Market cap
- $1.8B
- From 52-week high
- -29.6%
- Shares outstanding
- 31.3M
- Rank in Industrials by discount to fair value
- #68 of 106
Last price is our stored weekly price from 2026-10-16, older than the 2026-10-19 run that built this page; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Blue Bird Corporation manufactures school buses and related vehicles for the North American market. The company operates manufacturing facilities and serves school districts and transportation companies across the United States.
BLBD currently ranks #68 of 106 Industrials stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Fairly valued for 11 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $1.8B
- P/E (trailing)
- 13x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $1.61B
- Net margin
- 17.5%
- EPS (TTM)
- $4.57
- Gross margin
- 20.0%
- Debt / equity
- 0.18
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 23.6%
- Shares outstanding
- 31.3M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- B
- Margin trend
- Expanding
- 52-week position
- The lower-middle quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 42 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $60.10
- 200-day average
- $62.73
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price below both averages
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-11-23
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 8 beat, 0 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+8.7%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+14.9%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+25.0%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+25.7%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+21.4%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+1.1%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+13.6%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+17.6%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 8 buy · 0 hold · 0 sell (8 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $89.1
- Target vs last price
- +55.3%
What our data shows for BLBD
- Our model validated 12 trailing price-to-earnings windows for BLBD, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $46.59–$81.50.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 42.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for BLBD
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent BLBD news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for BLBD is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Blue Bird: The Profit Test Behind Its Next Growth Cycle (NASDAQ:BLBD) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-17)
TickrTrends take: Blue Bird operates in the Industrials sector and currently trades at a valuation that TickrTrends assesses as fairly valued, meaning the market price aligns with fundamentals. As the company enters a potential new growth phase, investors focused on valuation should monitor whether earnings growth accelerates enough to justify any multiple expansion or whether profitability gains are already priced into the current valuation. The critical question for value-conscious observers is whether Blue Bird can demonstrate profit improvement that exceeds market expectations, which would be necessary to move the stock away from its fairly valued status. - Blue Bird Stock: Micro Bird, Now Time To Fly (NASDAQ:BLBD) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-17)
TickrTrends take: Blue Bird Corporation operates in the Industrials sector and currently carries a Fairly valued designation according to TickrTrends analysis. For valuation-focused investors, the key consideration is monitoring whether operational improvements or market conditions might shift the company's valuation status from its current equilibrium. Any developments affecting school bus demand, fleet utilization rates, or production costs could meaningfully influence how the market reprices the stock relative to its fundamental value. - Fox Factory Announces CEO Transition (manilatimes.net, 2026-10-16)
TickrTrends take: Fox Factory Holding Corp (BLBD) announced a CEO transition, an event that typically warrants close monitoring by valuation-focused investors given the potential for strategic direction changes or operational adjustments under new leadership. With TickrTrends currently assessing BLBD as fairly valued within the Industrials sector, investors should track whether the transition influences guidance, capital allocation priorities, or margin expectations in upcoming quarterly reports. Leadership changes can serve as inflection points for reassessing whether current valuation multiples remain appropriate relative to forward earnings potential.
More BLBD news
- Blue Bird: A Meltdown Worth Buy Upgrade - Expanded TAM To Commercial Markets (NASDAQ:BLBD) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-08-25)
What people are saying
Follow the BLBD conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for BLBD show a shift in the 50/200-day trend state from mixed to downtrend this week. The stock remains at a fairly valued valuation verdict despite this technical development.
- 2026-10-05 — BLBD's sector discount rank declined to 73 from 67 this week, indicating the stock has moved further away from the lowest valuations within the Industrials sector. The stock remains fairly valued according to current valuation metrics.
- 2026-09-28 — BLBD's sector discount rank improved this week, moving from #73 to #67 among Industrials companies. The stock maintains a Fairly valued assessment based on TickrTrends' derived indicators.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is BLBD stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), BLBD is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value and screens as fairly valued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is BLBD's TickrTrends verdict?
BLBD's current verdict is Fairly valued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does BLBD compare to other Industrials stocks?
BLBD ranks #68 of 106 Industrials stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is BLBD overbought or oversold?
BLBD's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
When does BLBD report earnings next?
BLBD's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-11-23, per the published earnings calendar.
Does BLBD usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters BLBD beat the consensus estimate 8 times and missed 0 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about BLBD?
Of 8 analysts covering BLBD, 8 rate it a buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $89.1 (+55.3% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
More in Industrials
Head-to-head comparisons
BLBD vs CMI · BLBD vs FDX · BLBD vs GWW · BLBD vs HWM · BLBD vs LECO