CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
CF price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
Fairly valuedCF is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $111.54
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- 12-month range
- $76.09–$139.27
- Market cap
- $16.9B
- From 52-week high
- -19.9%
- Shares outstanding
- 151M
- Rank in Basic Materials by discount to fair value
- #16 of 26
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and distributes nitrogen, phosphate, and potash fertilizers and related chemical products used in agriculture and other industries. The company operates production facilities and distribution networks across North America, with additional operations and partnerships in other regions to serve global agricultural markets.
CF currently ranks #16 of 26 Basic Materials stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Fairly valued for 5 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $16.9B
- P/E (trailing)
- 9x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $7.74B
- Net margin
- 27.1%
- EPS (TTM)
- $12.80
- Gross margin
- 51.5%
- Debt / equity
- 0.63
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 24.8%
- Shares outstanding
- 151M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- A
- Margin trend
- Expanding
- 52-week position
- The upper-middle quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Undervalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 38 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $123.37
- 200-day average
- $114.42
- Moving-average state
- 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price between the averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $2.10 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 1.88%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 0 (no streak on complete calendar years)
- Next ex-dividend date
- 2026-11-16
- Last payment date
- 2026-08-31
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-11-04 (post-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 6 beat, 2 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▼ miss (-16.3%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+8.6%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+19.6%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+6.3%)
2025-06 ▼ miss (-3.2%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+32.0%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+18.5%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+33.6%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 6 buy · 13 hold · 3 sell (22 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Hold-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $128
- Target vs last price
- +14.8%
What our data shows for CF
- Our model validated 15 trailing price-to-earnings windows for CF, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the middle of their 12-month price range of $76.09–$139.27.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 38.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for CF
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent CF news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for CF is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Is CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) a Bargain After 3.2% Drop? GF Value Says Undervalued (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-25)
TickrTrends take: CF Industries Holdings Inc trades in the Basic Materials sector where cyclical commodity exposure can create significant valuation swings. TickrTrends currently assesses CF as overvalued, which contrasts with the perspective offered by the GF Value metric cited in recent commentary. Investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether CF's recent price movement represents a temporary dislocation between different valuation frameworks or signals a broader reassessment of the company's fundamentals and sector positioning. - CF Initiates Coverage On Bernstein -- Rating Set as Outperform (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-25)
TickrTrends take: CF has received an Outperform rating from Bernstein analyst coverage, which represents positive sentiment from a major research institution. Given TickrTrends' current assessment that CF is Overvalued, investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether this analyst endorsement leads to multiple expansion or if fundamental metrics need to improve to justify current price levels. For a Basic Materials company trading at a premium valuation, the gap between positive analyst sentiment and valuation concerns suggests the market is pricing in expectations that warrant close tracking of earnings delivery and competitive positioning. - CF Looks 0.5% Overvalued on GF Value™ Amid Dividend Sustainability Focus (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-22)
TickrTrends take: CF is currently trading at a valuation premium according to TickrTrends' assessment, which aligns with the company's own valuation metrics showing modest overvaluation. For investors focused on valuation discipline, the key consideration is whether the company's dividend sustainability can justify its current price, particularly given the cyclical nature of the Basic Materials sector where CF operates. The interplay between dividend reliability and valuation multiples will be important to monitor as market conditions in this sector evolve.
What people are saying
Follow the CF conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for CF in the Basic Materials sector show that the relative strength index has moved from an oversold zone to a neutral zone this week. The stock's current valuation assessment remains fairly valued based on the latest analysis.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for CF in the Basic Materials sector show a shift in momentum this week, with the RSI zone moving from neutral into oversold territory. The current valuation verdict remains Fairly valued. This oversold reading suggests the stock has experienced downward price pressure recently.
- 2026-10-06 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for CF in the Basic Materials sector shifted this week, with the valuation verdict moving from Overvalued to Fairly valued. This change reflects a recalibration of the company's valuation metrics relative to sector fundamentals and peer comparisons.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is CF stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), CF is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value and screens as fairly valued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is CF's TickrTrends verdict?
CF's current verdict is Fairly valued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does CF compare to other Basic Materials stocks?
CF ranks #16 of 26 Basic Materials stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is CF overbought or oversold?
CF's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does CF pay a dividend?
Yes. CF paid $2.10 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 1.88% yield on TickrTrends' last price. The next ex-dividend date on file is 2026-11-16.
When does CF report earnings next?
CF's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-11-04 (post-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does CF usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters CF beat the consensus estimate 6 times and missed 2 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about CF?
Of 22 analysts covering CF, 6 rate it a buy, 13 a hold and 3 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $128 (+14.8% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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