CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) fair value analysis

S&P 500 · Updated 2026-09-07

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and distributes nitrogen, phosphate, and potash fertilizers and related chemical products used in agriculture and other industries. The company operates production facilities and distribution networks across North America, with additional operations and partnerships in other regions to serve global agricultural markets.

Forward Fair Value verdict

Overvalued

Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model, CF is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value.

CF currently ranks #24 of 27 Basic Materials stocks by discount to Forward Fair Value. It has screened as Overvalued for 3 consecutive weekly runs.

Last price: $133.35
Sector: Basic Materials
12-month range: $79.80–$135.60

Derived indicators

Coarse bands from TickrTrends' weekly models; exact figures are part of the full report.

Quality grade: B
Leverage: Moderate
Margin trend: Expanding
Revenue growth: Declining
RSI zone: Neutral
52-week position: The top quarter of its range
DCF cross-check: Undervalued

What our data shows for CF

Our model validated 15 trailing price-to-earnings windows for CF, built from quarterly earnings records.
Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $79.80–$135.60.
The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 64.

The exact numbers are one step away

The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for CF
Exact discount / premium to today's price
The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes

See the exact fair value →

How Forward Fair Value works

TickrTrends computes a Forward Fair Value for every covered stock each week: a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple is applied to the analyst-consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year. Every input window is validated for continuity and every result is screened for plausibility before publication.

Recent CF news

TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for CF is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.

CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) Shares Fall 3.2% -- What GF Score of 69 Tells Investors (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-04)
TickrTrends take: CF Industries shares recently declined, and investors monitoring valuation metrics should note that the company's GF Score of 69 suggests room for improvement in fundamental quality measures. Against TickrTrends' current assessment that CF trades at overvalued levels within the Basic Materials sector, this moderate quality score indicates the stock may lack sufficient fundamental strength to justify its current pricing. A valuation-focused reader should watch whether operational metrics and earnings trends can strengthen to better support the company's market valuation going forward.
CF Industries (CF) Chief Accounting Officer Richard A. Hoker Announces Retirement (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-04)
TickrTrends take: CF Industries' announcement of its Chief Accounting Officer's departure occurs during a period when TickrTrends' analysis indicates the stock trades at overvalued levels relative to its fundamentals. Leadership transitions in finance roles can warrant attention to accounting practices and internal control disclosures, particularly for investors monitoring whether valuation multiples are justified by operational execution. For a Basic Materials company, continuity in financial reporting and the quality of the successor's background may factor into how the market reassesses the company's valuation premium or discount going forward.

What people are saying

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TickrTrends weekly updates

2026-09-07 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-09-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-08-31 — TickrTrends initiated weekly Forward Fair Value coverage of this stock.

Frequently asked questions

Is CF stock undervalued?

Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-09-07), CF is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.

What is CF's TickrTrends verdict?

CF's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.

How does CF compare to other Basic Materials stocks?

CF ranks #24 of 27 Basic Materials stocks in TickrTrends' coverage when sorted by discount to Forward Fair Value.

Is CF overbought or oversold?

CF's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.

All Basic Materials fair-value coverage →

Head-to-head comparisons

CF vs ALB · CF vs APD · CF vs CE · CF vs CTVA · CF vs DD