Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
EXPD price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
OvervaluedEXPD is trading at a 10–25% premium to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $193.24
- Sector
- Industrials
- 12-month range
- $117.57–$198.64
- Market cap
- $25.1B
- From 52-week high
- -2.7%
- Shares outstanding
- 130M
- Rank in Industrials by discount to fair value
- #79 of 106
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. provides freight forwarding and logistics services, including air and ocean freight forwarding, customs brokerage, and supply chain management solutions for global trade. The company operates worldwide through offices and agents located across North America, Europe, Asia, and other regions to serve customers shipping goods internationally.
EXPD currently ranks #79 of 106 Industrials stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Overvalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $25.1B
- P/E (trailing)
- 28x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $12B
- Net margin
- 7.6%
- EPS (TTM)
- $6.87
- Gross margin
- 29.3%
- Debt / equity
- 0.27
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 20.0%
- Shares outstanding
- 130M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- B
- Margin trend
- Expanding
- 52-week position
- The top quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 58 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $189.04
- 200-day average
- $164.87
- Moving-average state
- 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price above both averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $1.58 per share (2 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 0.82%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 18
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-06-01
- Last payment date
- 2026-06-15
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-11-03 (pre-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 8 beat, 0 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+20.8%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+27.6%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+5.7%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+18.0%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+8.1%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+7.3%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+16.7%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+20.7%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 3 buy · 10 hold · 5 sell (18 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Hold-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $181
- Target vs last price
- -6.3%
What our data shows for EXPD
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for EXPD, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $117.57–$198.64.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 58.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for EXPD
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent EXPD news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for EXPD is currently mixed, computed from recent coverage.
- Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) Hits Fresh High: Is There Still Room to Run? (zacks.com, 2026-10-12)
TickrTrends take: Expeditors International has reached new price levels while TickrTrends currently assesses the stock as overvalued within the Industrials sector, suggesting that fundamental metrics may not fully support the recent advance. Investors focused on valuation should monitor whether the company can demonstrate earnings growth or operational improvements substantial enough to justify price appreciation from these elevated levels. The gap between current pricing and the valuation model's assessment presents a key tension point for those evaluating entry or exit decisions. - Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) Discusses Distribution Trends and Strategies for Unlocking Growth in Canada Transcript (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-07)
TickrTrends take: Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. has outlined distribution strategies aimed at unlocking growth opportunities in Canada, signaling management's focus on market expansion in a key geography. Given TickrTrends' current assessment that EXPD is overvalued, investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether these growth initiatives can justify the company's current stock price through meaningful revenue acceleration or margin improvement. The success of Canadian market penetration efforts will be an important data point for determining if the company's valuation reflects realistic growth prospects or represents stretched expectations for the Industrials sector player. - Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) Incoterms Level Up: Managing Risk and Understanding Key Terms in Global Trade Transcript (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-07)
TickrTrends take: Expeditors International operates in the competitive Industrials sector where operational efficiency and cost management directly influence profitability margins. Given TickrTrends' current overvalued assessment, investors should monitor whether the company's focus on risk management and incoterm expertise translates into tangible margin expansion or revenue growth that could justify current valuation levels. The effectiveness of these trade management capabilities in a tightening logistics environment will be key to determining whether the overvalued signal persists or shifts.
What people are saying
Follow the EXPD conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is EXPD stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), EXPD is trading at a 10–25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is EXPD's TickrTrends verdict?
EXPD's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does EXPD compare to other Industrials stocks?
EXPD ranks #79 of 106 Industrials stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is EXPD overbought or oversold?
EXPD's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does EXPD pay a dividend?
Yes. EXPD paid $1.58 per share over the last twelve months (2 payments), a 0.82% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 18 consecutive years. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-06-01.
When does EXPD report earnings next?
EXPD's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-11-03 (pre-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does EXPD usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters EXPD beat the consensus estimate 8 times and missed 0 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about EXPD?
Of 18 analysts covering EXPD, 3 rate it a buy, 10 a hold and 5 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $181 (-6.3% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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