Hillman Solutions Corp. (HLMN) fair value analysis
Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19
HLMN price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedHLMN is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $7.37
- Sector
- Industrials
- 12-month range
- $6.94–$10.74
- Market cap
- $1.43B
- From 52-week high
- -31.4%
- Shares outstanding
- 195M
- Rank in Industrials by discount to fair value
- #9 of 106
Last price is our stored weekly price from 2026-10-16, older than the 2026-10-19 run that built this page; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Hillman Solutions Corp. is a fastener and hardware distributor that supplies products such as screws, bolts, nuts, and other industrial components to retail and commercial customers. The company operates throughout North America, serving customers across various industries including retail, construction, and manufacturing.
HLMN currently ranks #9 of 106 Industrials stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $1.43B
- P/E (trailing)
- 13x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $1.6B
- Net margin
- 2.6%
- EPS (TTM)
- $0.56
- Gross margin
- 47.1%
- Debt / equity
- 0.65
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 3.6%
- Shares outstanding
- 195M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- D
- Margin trend
- Contracting
- 52-week position
- The bottom quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 59 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $7.61
- 200-day average
- $8.22
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price below both averages
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-11-02 (post-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 2 beat, 2 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▬ met (0.0%)
2026-03 ▼ miss (-35.5%)
2025-12 ▬ met (0.0%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+10.0%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+21.4%)
2025-03 ▬ met (0.0%)
2024-12 ▼ miss (-8.7%)
2024-09 ▬ met (0.0%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 6 buy · 2 hold · 0 sell (8 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $12
- Target vs last price
- +62.8%
What our data shows for HLMN
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for HLMN, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $6.94–$10.74.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 59.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for HLMN
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent HLMN news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for HLMN is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- REINHART PARTNERS, LLC. Trims Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN) Stake -- Shares Trade 30% Below GF Value (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-15)
TickrTrends take: Hillman Solutions Corp operates in the Industrials sector and is currently trading at levels significantly below its Graham-FactorValue estimate, which aligns with TickrTrends' assessment that the stock is undervalued. The recent reduction in Reinhart Partners' position suggests institutional reassessment of the company, even as the stock remains substantially discounted relative to its calculated intrinsic value. For valuation-focused investors, the gap between current trading levels and GF Value represents the key metric to monitor as market conditions and company fundamentals evolve. - Here’s What Fuels Hillman Solutions’ (HLMN) Recovery Thesis (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-14)
TickrTrends take: HLMN operates in the Industrials sector and currently trades at an undervalued assessment according to TickrTrends' analysis. The recovery thesis around the company suggests potential operational or market improvements that could justify valuation expansion if execution materializes. Investors focused on valuation should monitor whether HLMN's operational developments translate into improved financial metrics that support a re-rating from its current undervalued status. - HLMN Maintained by Canaccord Genuity -- Price Target Lowered to $13.00 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-01)
TickrTrends take: Canaccord Genuity's reduction of its price target for HLMN to $13 follows a pattern worth monitoring given TickrTrends' current undervalued assessment of the stock. For a valuation-focused investor, the gap between analyst price targets and TickrTrends' valuation verdict may indicate where market consensus and systematic valuation analysis diverge within the industrials sector. The maintenance rating combined with the lowered target suggests the analyst sees limited upside at current levels, a data point that contrasts with the undervalued classification and merits continued observation of fundamentals.
More HLMN news
- Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN) CFO and Treasurer Robert Kraft Buys 35,500 Shares (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-14)
- HLMN Looks 29.2% Undervalued on GF Value™ (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-14)
What people are saying
Follow the HLMN conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — TickrTrends' derived indicators show that HLMN has moved to a weaker position within its sector this week. The stock's sector discount rank declined from number 6 to number 13, indicating it is now less favorably valued relative to other Industrials sector companies. Despite this shift, HLMN maintains an undervalued verdict according to current valuation metrics.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for HLMN show a decline this week, with the quality grade falling from B to D. The stock remains categorized as undervalued according to current valuation metrics. This downward shift in quality assessment represents a notable deterioration in the company's fundamental indicators over the past seven days.
- 2026-10-05 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — HLMN, an Industrials sector company currently assessed as undervalued, experienced a shift in its RSI zone this week, moving from oversold to neutral territory. This change in the Relative Strength Index indicator suggests the stock has moved away from the extreme weakness levels that characterized it in the previous week.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is HLMN stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), HLMN is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is HLMN's TickrTrends verdict?
HLMN's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does HLMN compare to other Industrials stocks?
HLMN ranks #9 of 106 Industrials stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is HLMN overbought or oversold?
HLMN's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
When does HLMN report earnings next?
HLMN's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-11-02 (post-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does HLMN usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters HLMN beat the consensus estimate 2 times and missed 2 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about HLMN?
Of 8 analysts covering HLMN, 6 rate it a buy, 2 a hold and 0 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $12 (+62.8% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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