HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK) fair value analysis
Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19
HPK price how computed
Valuation status
No verdict this weekHPK: Next year's consensus is far above both what this company earned over the last four quarters and what its most recent quarter is earning.
Our model does not publish a verdict on a forecast that far from results; it is re-evaluated weekly.
- Last price
- $10.55
- Sector
- Energy
- 12-month range
- $3.89–$10.55
- Market cap
- $1.33B
- From 52-week high
- 0.0%
- Shares outstanding
- 126M
- Rank in Energy by quality score
- #30 of 34
Last price is our stored weekly price from 2026-10-16, older than the 2026-10-19 run that built this page; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
HighPeak Energy, Inc. is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company that operates onshore properties in the United States. The company focuses its operations primarily in the Permian Basin, one of the major oil and gas producing regions in North America.
HPK currently ranks #30 of 34 Energy stocks by quality score.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $1.33B
- P/E (trailing)
- n/m
- Revenue (TTM)
- $843M
- Net margin
- -10.5%
- EPS (TTM)
- $-0.23
- Gross margin
- 76.8%
- Debt / equity
- 0.77
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- -7.1%
- Shares outstanding
- 126M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- F
- Margin trend
- Contracting
- 52-week position
- The top quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 75 · overbought
- 50-day average
- $8.26
- 200-day average
- $6.75
- Moving-average state
- 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price above both averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $0.04 per share (1 payment)
- Yield on last price
- 0.38%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 0 (no streak on complete calendar years)
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2025-12-01
- Last payment date
- 2025-12-23
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-11-04
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 2 beat, 5 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▼ miss (-300.0%)
2026-03 ▬ met (0.0%)
2025-12 ▼ miss (-1244.7%)
2025-09 ▼ miss (-57.1%)
2025-06 ▼ miss (-9.1%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+24.0%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+37.4%)
2024-09 ▼ miss (-15.4%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 1 buy · 0 hold · 0 sell (1 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $10
- Target vs last price
- -5.2%
What our data shows for HPK
- Our model validated 15 trailing price-to-earnings windows for HPK, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $3.89–$10.55.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at an overbought 75.
What subscribers see
- Every published Forward Fair Value with its exact discount or premium
- The normalized P/E and quarter count behind each estimate
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
- HPK's own verdict the week it qualifies, published automatically
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent HPK news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for HPK is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- A Look at HighPeak Energy Inc (HPK) After 8.0% Gain -- GF Value $10.27 vs Price $11.39 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-20)
TickrTrends take: HighPeak Energy Inc trades at a price exceeding its GuruFocus Value estimate, with the stock currently priced above the intrinsic value calculation by roughly 11 percent. TickrTrends rates the company as overvalued within the Energy sector context, suggesting that current market pricing does not offer a margin of safety based on fundamental valuation metrics. Investors focused on valuation should monitor whether the stock price converges toward the estimated fair value or whether the company's fundamentals shift to justify the premium at which it is trading. - What Makes HighPeak Energy, Inc. (HPK) a Strong Momentum Stock: Buy Now? (zacks.com, 2026-10-19)
TickrTrends take: HighPeak Energy trades at a valuation that TickrTrends currently assesses as overvalued, which creates a tension between momentum-driven interest and fundamental value metrics. Investors focused on valuation discipline should monitor whether the company's operational performance can justify current price levels or whether mean reversion becomes a factor in an energy sector that can experience significant valuation swings. The gap between momentum signals and TickrTrends' overvaluation verdict suggests careful scrutiny of earnings growth and cash flow generation relative to current market pricing. - HighPeak Energy Stock: Debt Refinancing Reduce Interest Cost More Flexibility (NASDAQ:HPK) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-16)
TickrTrends take: HighPeak Energy's debt refinancing activity addresses a structural cost factor that valuation models typically monitor closely for energy companies carrying significant leverage. The reduction in interest expenses could improve future cash flow metrics, though TickrTrends currently assesses the stock as overvalued, suggesting that current market pricing may not fully reflect the benefit of these refinancing efforts or that other valuation concerns outweigh the operational savings. Investors focused on valuation should track whether improved financial flexibility translates into measurable improvements in leverage ratios and free cash flow generation in upcoming quarters.
More HPK news
- HighPeak Energy Inc (HPK) Shares Surge 4.1% -- What GF Score of 63 Tells Investors (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-13)
- HighPeak Energy Announces Comprehensive Refinancing (manilatimes.net, 2026-10-06)
- HighPeak Energy, Inc. to Present at Water Tower Research Insights Conference September 22, 2026 (manilatimes.net, 2026-09-21)
What people are saying
Follow the HPK conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for HPK show a shift in momentum this week, with the RSI zone moving from neutral to overbought territory. The current valuation verdict for this energy sector company remains overvalued. These changes suggest increased buying pressure in the stock relative to its assessed fundamental value.
- 2026-10-12 — HPK's valuation status has shifted this week from awaiting full valuation to overvalued according to TickrTrends' derived indicators. The energy sector company now appears to be trading at levels that exceed its fundamental value based on the most recent analytical assessment.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-05 — # HPK - Weekly Indicator Summary HPK's 50/200-day trend state improved this week, transitioning from a mixed condition to an uptrend. The energy sector stock continues to await a full valuation assessment based on current metrics.
- 2026-09-28 — TickrTrends initiated weekly Forward Fair Value coverage of this stock.
Frequently asked questions
Is HPK stock undervalued?
HPK does not yet have sufficient validated earnings history for a full Forward Fair Value verdict under TickrTrends' standards; it is re-evaluated every week.
What is HPK's TickrTrends verdict?
HPK is currently marked 'Awaiting full valuation' - a verdict publishes automatically once at least six validated trailing P/E windows accumulate.
How does HPK compare to other Energy stocks?
HPK ranks #30 of 34 Energy stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by quality score. It carries no fair-value verdict yet, so it is not ranked by discount.
Is HPK overbought or oversold?
HPK's 14-day RSI is in the overbought zone on TickrTrends' latest weekly data.
Does HPK pay a dividend?
Yes. HPK paid $0.04 per share over the last twelve months (1 payment), a 0.38% yield on TickrTrends' last price. The last ex-dividend date was 2025-12-01.
When does HPK report earnings next?
HPK's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-11-04, per the published earnings calendar.
Does HPK usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters HPK beat the consensus estimate 2 times and missed 5 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about HPK?
Of 1 analysts covering HPK, 1 rate it a buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $10 (-5.2% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.