Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
MPC price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedMPC is trading at a 10–25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $455.03
- Sector
- Energy
- 12-month range
- $162.63–$484.92
- Market cap
- $128B
- From 52-week high
- -6.2%
- Shares outstanding
- 281M
- Rank in Energy by discount to fair value
- #4 of 24
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation is one of the largest petroleum refining companies in the United States, operating multiple refineries that process crude oil into gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum products. The company operates refineries and related assets across the United States, including facilities in the Midwest, Gulf Coast, and West Coast regions.
MPC currently ranks #4 of 24 Energy stocks by discount to fair value. Its Undervalued verdict is new as of this week's run.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $128B
- P/E (trailing)
- 17x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $154B
- Net margin
- 5.6%
- EPS (TTM)
- $26.46
- Gross margin
- 17.2%
- Debt / equity
- 1.80
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 9.0%
- Shares outstanding
- 281M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- F
- Margin trend
- Expanding
- 52-week position
- The top quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Undervalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 67 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $395.82
- 200-day average
- $276.35
- Moving-average state
- 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price above both averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $4.00 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 0.88%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 4
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-08-19
- Last payment date
- 2026-09-10
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-11-03 (pre-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 7 beat, 1 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+22.1%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+120.0%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+50.2%)
2025-09 ▼ miss (-4.7%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+23.0%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+55.6%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+3750.0%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+71.6%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 9 buy · 9 hold · 1 sell (19 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Hold-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $442
- Target vs last price
- -2.9%
What our data shows for MPC
- Our model validated 13 trailing price-to-earnings windows for MPC, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $162.63–$484.92.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 67.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for MPC
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent MPC news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for MPC is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Marathon Petroleum Stock: Good Momentum Stocks, But Little Margin Of Safety (NYSE:MPC) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-21)
TickrTrends take: Marathon Petroleum trades with momentum characteristics that appeal to trend-following investors, yet the company's current valuation metrics offer limited downside protection according to TickrTrends' undervalued assessment. For investors focused on valuation fundamentals, the gap between MPC's price momentum and its underlying asset value warrants closer examination of earnings stability and cash flow generation in the energy sector. Monitoring how the company's operational performance and capital returns develop will be important for determining whether the current valuation discount reflects sustainable business quality or temporary market mispricing. - Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is Attracting Investor Attention: Here is What You Should Know (zacks.com, 2026-10-20)
TickrTrends take: Marathon Petroleum Corporation operates in the Energy sector and is currently receiving investor attention amid market activity. According to TickrTrends' current valuation analysis, MPC is trading at undervalued levels, which suggests the market price may not fully reflect the company's fundamental value. Investors monitoring valuation metrics should consider whether the recent attention to MPC represents a market correction toward its intrinsic worth or reflects changing sector dynamics. - Marathon Petroleum: Booming Profits From A Long-Term Structural Bull Market (NYSE:MPC) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-20)
TickrTrends take: Marathon Petroleum operates in the Energy sector and is currently assessed as Undervalued by TickrTrends' valuation metrics. The company's profit strength cited in the headline aligns with the undervaluation verdict, suggesting current market pricing may not fully reflect earnings power from favorable structural energy market conditions. Investors focused on valuation should monitor whether MPC's profitability from long-term energy trends continues to support the gap between current price and fundamental value.
More MPC news
- Marathon Petroleum: A Solid Hedge Vs. Diesel's Damage (NYSE:MPC) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-15)
- Energy Sector Surge Boosts Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Amidst Valuation Concerns (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-12)
- Energy Sector Rally Lifts Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Nearly 48% in Q3 Amid Middle East Tensions (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-03)
- Energy Sector Surges 16% in Q3; Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Leads with Nearly 48% Gain (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-03)
What people are saying
Follow the MPC conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — MPC's derived indicators shifted this week as the RSI zone moved from overbought to neutral territory, reflecting a reduction in upward momentum. Concurrent with this technical adjustment, the valuation verdict improved from Fairly valued to Undervalued, suggesting the stock presents a more attractive pricing level relative to its fundamentals within the Energy sector.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for MPC show deterioration this week. The quality grade declined from D to F, while the Relative Strength Index moved from neutral territory into overbought conditions. Despite these negative indicator shifts, the current valuation verdict remains Undervalued.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — Marathon Petroleum Corporation's derived indicators shifted notably this week. The relative strength index moved from overbought territory into the neutral zone, while the company's sector discount ranking improved to number 3 from number 10, indicating stronger relative valuation within the Energy sector. The valuation verdict simultaneously adjusted from overvalued to fairly valued.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is MPC stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), MPC is trading at a 10–25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is MPC's TickrTrends verdict?
MPC's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does MPC compare to other Energy stocks?
MPC ranks #4 of 24 Energy stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is MPC overbought or oversold?
MPC's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does MPC pay a dividend?
Yes. MPC paid $4.00 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 0.88% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 4 consecutive years. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-08-19.
When does MPC report earnings next?
MPC's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-11-03 (pre-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does MPC usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters MPC beat the consensus estimate 7 times and missed 1 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about MPC?
Of 19 analysts covering MPC, 9 rate it a buy, 9 a hold and 1 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $442 (-2.9% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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