Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) fair value analysis

S&P 500 · Updated 2026-09-07

Marathon Petroleum Corporation is one of the largest petroleum refining companies in the United States, operating multiple refineries that process crude oil into gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum products. The company operates refineries and related assets across the United States, including facilities in the Midwest, Gulf Coast, and West Coast regions.

Forward Fair Value verdict

Overvalued

Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model, MPC is trading at a 10–25% premium to estimated fair value.

MPC currently ranks #14 of 25 Energy stocks by discount to Forward Fair Value. It has screened as Overvalued for 3 consecutive weekly runs.

Last price: $388.90
Sector: Energy
12-month range: $165.14–$383.00

Derived indicators

Coarse bands from TickrTrends' weekly models; exact figures are part of the full report.

Quality grade: F
Leverage: High
Margin trend: Contracting
Revenue growth: Declining
RSI zone: Overbought
52-week position: The top quarter of its range
DCF cross-check: Overvalued

What our data shows for MPC

Our model validated 13 trailing price-to-earnings windows for MPC, built from quarterly earnings records.
Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $165.14–$383.00.
The 14-day relative strength index sits at an overbought 88.

The exact numbers are one step away

The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for MPC
Exact discount / premium to today's price
The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes

See the exact fair value →

How Forward Fair Value works

TickrTrends computes a Forward Fair Value for every covered stock each week: a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple is applied to the analyst-consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year. Every input window is validated for continuity and every result is screened for plausibility before publication.

Recent MPC news

TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for MPC is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.

Can Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Keep Rallying? Wells Fargo Says Yes (insidermonkey.com, 2026-09-07)
TickrTrends take: Marathon Petroleum trades at a valuation that TickrTrends currently assesses as overvalued, which creates a tension between positive analyst sentiment and valuation metrics. A Wells Fargo positive outlook on the stock's momentum potential would need to be weighed against the current stretched valuation assessment, particularly given the cyclical nature of energy sector valuations. Investors focused on valuation should monitor whether any operational improvements or sector developments might justify the current price level or if mean reversion pressures emerge.
Here is What to Know Beyond Why Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is a Trending Stock (zacks.com, 2026-09-07)
TickrTrends take: Marathon Petroleum Corporation is experiencing elevated investor attention, which TickrTrends currently assesses as overvalued relative to its fundamentals as an energy sector company. When a stock gains trending status alongside an overvaluation designation, valuation-focused investors should monitor whether the increased attention reflects genuine operational improvements or primarily represents sentiment-driven price movement. The gap between market enthusiasm and underlying valuation metrics warrants close observation of MPC's earnings reports and capital allocation decisions to determine if the current valuation premium is justified.
MPC Looks 58.7% Overvalued on GF Value™ (gurufocus.com, 2026-08-31)
TickrTrends take: MPC's current TickrTrends valuation assessment of Overvalued aligns with the GF Value finding that the stock trades at a significant premium to its intrinsic value estimate. For investors focused on valuation metrics, this suggests the market price may need to contract or the company's fundamentals may need to strengthen considerably before the stock reaches fair value territory. Energy sector investors monitoring MPC should track whether operational improvements or market dynamics shift the valuation gap in coming quarters.

What people are saying

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TickrTrends weekly updates

2026-09-07 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-09-06 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for MPC showed notable shifts this week. The DCF cross-check band moved from undervalued to overvalued, while the momentum indicator declined from A to none, reflecting reduced positive price momentum. The current valuation verdict remains overvalued.
2026-08-31 — TickrTrends initiated weekly Forward Fair Value coverage of this stock.

Frequently asked questions

Is MPC stock undervalued?

Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-09-07), MPC is trading at a 10–25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.

What is MPC's TickrTrends verdict?

MPC's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.

How does MPC compare to other Energy stocks?

MPC ranks #14 of 25 Energy stocks in TickrTrends' coverage when sorted by discount to Forward Fair Value.

Is MPC overbought or oversold?

MPC's 14-day RSI is in the overbought zone on TickrTrends' latest weekly data.

All Energy fair-value coverage →

Head-to-head comparisons

MPC vs COP · MPC vs CVX · MPC vs DVN · MPC vs FANG · MPC vs HAL