MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) fair value analysis
Nasdaq · Updated 2026-09-07
MGP Ingredients, Inc. is a producer of bourbon whiskey, distilled spirits, and grain alcohol products that operates distilleries and production facilities primarily in the United States. The company serves both the spirits industry and the industrial markets, supplying ingredients and finished products to customers across North America.
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedBased on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model, MGPI is trading at a 10–25% discount to estimated fair value.
MGPI currently ranks #32 of 64 Consumer Defensive stocks by discount to Forward Fair Value. It has screened as Undervalued for 3 consecutive weekly runs.
- Last price
- $17.30
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- 12-month range
- $17.07–$24.77
Derived indicators
Coarse bands from TickrTrends' weekly models; exact figures are part of the full report.
- Quality grade
- D
- Leverage
- Low
- RSI zone
- Neutral
- 50/200-day trend
- Downtrend
- 52-week position
- The bottom quarter of its range
What our data shows for MGPI
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for MGPI, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $17.07–$24.77.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 42.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for MGPI
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
How Forward Fair Value works
TickrTrends computes a Forward Fair Value for every covered stock each week: a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple is applied to the analyst-consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year. Every input window is validated for continuity and every result is screened for plausibility before publication.
Recent MGPI news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for MGPI is currently mixed, computed from recent coverage.
- MGP Ingredients: Too Much Whiskey, Not Enough Cash Flow (NASDAQ:MGPI) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-08-21)
TickrTrends take: MGP Ingredients operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, where stable cash generation typically supports valuation multiples, yet the headline suggests current production imbalances may be pressuring liquidity. TickrTrends currently derives an Undervalued verdict for MGPI, indicating the market may not be fully pricing in either the temporary nature of excess inventory or the company's ability to work through production misalignments. Investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether management successfully rebalances supply with demand, as resolution of cash flow constraints could materially affect whether the Undervalued assessment holds. - MGP Ingredients reaffirms 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $90M-$98M while forecasting Ingredient Solutions margins in high single to low double digits (NASDAQ:MGPI) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-07-30)
TickrTrends take: MGP Ingredients' reaffirmation of its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance provides investors with a defined earnings target range that can be assessed against the company's current market valuation. The projected margin expansion in Ingredient Solutions, characterized as moving into high single to low double digit territory, suggests management expects operational efficiency gains that could support the midpoint of the EBITDA range. For investors evaluating MGPI's undervalued status within the Consumer Defensive sector, tracking whether actual results align with these 2026 targets will be critical to validating the current valuation thesis.
What people are saying
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TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-09-07 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-06 — MGPI's sector discount rank declined from number 27 to number 32 this week, indicating the stock has become relatively less discounted compared to other Consumer Defensive sector peers. Despite this movement in the ranking, MGPI maintains an undervalued valuation verdict according to current TickrTrends analysis.
- 2026-08-31 — TickrTrends initiated weekly Forward Fair Value coverage of this stock.
Frequently asked questions
Is MGPI stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-09-07), MGPI is trading at a 10–25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is MGPI's TickrTrends verdict?
MGPI's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does MGPI compare to other Consumer Defensive stocks?
MGPI ranks #32 of 64 Consumer Defensive stocks in TickrTrends' coverage when sorted by discount to Forward Fair Value.
Is MGPI overbought or oversold?
MGPI's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
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