MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) fair value analysis
Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19
MGPI price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedMGPI is trading at a 10–25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $15.12
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- 12-month range
- $12.74–$26.40
- Market cap
- $324M
- From 52-week high
- -42.7%
- Shares outstanding
- 21.4M
- Rank in Consumer Defensive by discount to fair value
- #56 of 61
Last price is our stored weekly price from 2026-10-16, older than the 2026-10-19 run that built this page; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
MGP Ingredients, Inc. is a producer of bourbon whiskey, distilled spirits, and grain alcohol products that operates distilleries and production facilities primarily in the United States. The company serves both the spirits industry and the industrial markets, supplying ingredients and finished products to customers across North America.
MGPI currently ranks #56 of 61 Consumer Defensive stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $324M
- P/E (trailing)
- 6x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $500M
- Net margin
- -48.4%
- EPS (TTM)
- $2.35
- Gross margin
- 37.4%
- Debt / equity
- 0.64
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- -13.7%
- Shares outstanding
- 21.4M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- F
- Margin trend
- Contracting
- 52-week position
- The bottom quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 59 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $15.40
- 200-day average
- $18.70
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price below both averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $0.48 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 3.17%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 0 (no streak on complete calendar years)
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-08-14
- Last payment date
- 2026-08-28
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-10-28 (pre-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 6 beat, 2 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+46.9%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+275.0%)
2025-12 ▼ miss (-1.7%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+41.7%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+47.0%)
2025-03 ▼ miss (-2.7%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+4.0%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+4.9%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 4 buy · 1 hold · 0 sell (5 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $26.4
- Target vs last price
- +74.6%
What our data shows for MGPI
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for MGPI, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $12.74–$26.40.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 59.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for MGPI
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent MGPI news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for MGPI is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- MGPI set for name change to Sempreon (foodbusinessnews.net, 2026-10-16)
TickrTrends take: MGPI's upcoming name change to Sempreon represents a corporate rebranding effort that could signal strategic repositioning within the Consumer Defensive sector. For valuation-focused investors, the effectiveness of this rebrand in clarifying the company's market position and investor perception will be worth monitoring, as successful corporate rebranding can sometimes lead to improved market valuations and investor engagement. TickrTrends currently rates MGPI as undervalued, so observers should track whether the name change materially affects how the market prices the company relative to its fundamentals. - MGPI Maintained by Wells Fargo -- Price Target Lowered to $17.00 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-05)
TickrTrends take: Wells Fargo's reduction of MGPI's price target to $17 reflects analyst reassessment of the company's near-term prospects, a development that occurs within the context of TickrTrends' current undervalued designation for the stock. For investors focused on valuation metrics, this analyst action provides a data point to monitor against MGPI's fundamental performance in the Consumer Defensive sector, where stable demand characteristics may support the case for undervaluation if earnings remain resilient. The interaction between analyst price adjustments and valuation models will be important to track as market conditions and company results evolve. - Is It Too Late to Buy MGP Ingredients Inc (MGPI) After 4.4% Rally? GF Value Says Undervalued (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-30)
TickrTrends take: MGP Ingredients Inc operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, where stable cash flows and predictable demand typically support valuation multiples. TickrTrends currently derives an undervalued verdict for MGPI, which aligns with the GF Value assessment referenced in the headline despite the recent rally. Investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether the stock's price continues to approach fair value estimates or if the recent momentum creates new resistance levels worth observing.
More MGPI news
- MGP Ingredients: Maybe The Cheapest Pick In Depressed Distillery Group (NASDAQ:MGPI) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-09-29)
What people are saying
Follow the MGPI conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — MGPI's sector discount rank declined to #20 this week from #13, indicating a weakening position relative to other Consumer Defensive stocks in terms of valuation discount. Despite this shift downward in the ranking, MGPI maintains an Undervalued verdict according to TickrTrends' derived indicators. The company's relative standing within its sector has become less favorable on a week-over-week basis.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — MGPI in the Consumer Defensive sector showed a shift in its RSI zone this week, moving from oversold to neutral territory. The stock currently carries an undervalued verdict based on TickrTrends' derived indicators. This adjustment in the relative strength index suggests a moderation in the stock's momentum from its previously depressed technical levels.
- 2026-10-05 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — MGPI has improved its sector discount ranking this week, moving from number 27 to number 10 among Consumer Defensive stocks. This advancement reflects a stronger valuation position relative to its sector peers. The stock maintains an undervalued verdict based on current valuation metrics.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is MGPI stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), MGPI is trading at a 10–25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is MGPI's TickrTrends verdict?
MGPI's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does MGPI compare to other Consumer Defensive stocks?
MGPI ranks #56 of 61 Consumer Defensive stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is MGPI overbought or oversold?
MGPI's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does MGPI pay a dividend?
Yes. MGPI paid $0.48 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 3.17% yield on TickrTrends' last price. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-08-14.
When does MGPI report earnings next?
MGPI's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-10-28 (pre-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does MGPI usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters MGPI beat the consensus estimate 6 times and missed 2 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about MGPI?
Of 5 analysts covering MGPI, 4 rate it a buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $26.4 (+74.6% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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