Altria Group, Inc. (MO) fair value analysis

S&P 500 · Updated 2026-09-07

Altria Group, Inc. is a tobacco company that manufactures and markets cigarettes, smokeless tobacco, and oral nicotine products. The company operates primarily in the United States.

Forward Fair Value verdict

Overvalued

Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model, MO is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value.

MO currently ranks #59 of 64 Consumer Defensive stocks by discount to Forward Fair Value. It has screened as Overvalued for 3 consecutive weekly runs.

Last price: $68.88
Sector: Consumer Defensive
12-month range: $56.38–$74.55

Derived indicators

Coarse bands from TickrTrends' weekly models; exact figures are part of the full report.

Quality grade: C
Leverage: Low
Margin trend: Expanding
Revenue growth: Declining
RSI zone: Neutral
52-week position: The upper-middle quarter of its range
DCF cross-check: Undervalued

What our data shows for MO

Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for MO, built from quarterly earnings records.
Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $56.38–$74.55.
The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 51.

The exact numbers are one step away

The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for MO
Exact discount / premium to today's price
The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes

See the exact fair value →

How Forward Fair Value works

TickrTrends computes a Forward Fair Value for every covered stock each week: a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple is applied to the analyst-consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year. Every input window is validated for continuity and every result is screened for plausibility before publication.

Recent MO news

TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for MO is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.

Altria: A Strong Dividend Increase After A Shaky Quarter, New Partnership (NYSE:MO) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-09-09)
TickrTrends take: Altria announced a dividend increase despite reporting weaker quarterly results, which presents a tension between cash return commitments and underlying business performance that valuation-focused investors should monitor closely. Given that TickrTrends currently rates MO as overvalued, the company's ability to sustain elevated dividend payments while facing operational challenges will be critical to watch in coming quarters. The new partnership referenced in the headline could represent an attempt to stabilize or improve the business trajectory, though its financial impact and integration timeline remain important factors for assessing whether the current valuation discount is justified.
Meet the Dirt Cheap 6.4%-Yielding Dividend Stock That's Beating the Market in 2026 (finance.yahoo.com, 2026-09-06)
TickrTrends take: Altria Group trades at a valuation that TickrTrends currently assesses as overvalued, despite the stock's strong dividend yield and market performance through 2026. For investors focused on valuation metrics, the disconnect between the company's premium pricing and its dividend appeal highlights the tension between yield-driven investment cases and fundamental value considerations in the Consumer Defensive sector. Valuation-conscious readers should monitor whether Altria's operational fundamentals and cash generation can justify its current market valuation, or whether the high yield primarily reflects a compressed stock price facing longer-term industry headwinds.
Altria Group (MO) Challenges FDA Review System as Smoke-Free Strategy Takes Center Stage (insidermonkey.com, 2026-09-03)
TickrTrends take: Altria's challenge to the FDA review system introduces regulatory uncertainty that could affect the company's smoke-free product portfolio, a key growth driver that investors are pricing into current valuations. Given TickrTrends' Overvalued assessment, investors should monitor whether regulatory headwinds materialize, as they could impact the revenue trajectory assumptions underlying the current valuation multiple. For a Consumer Defensive company heavily dependent on product innovation and regulatory approval, litigation or review delays represent risks that may not be fully reflected in an already elevated valuation.

What people are saying

Follow the MO conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X

TickrTrends weekly updates

2026-09-07 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-09-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-08-31 — TickrTrends initiated weekly Forward Fair Value coverage of this stock.

Frequently asked questions

Is MO stock undervalued?

Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-09-07), MO is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.

What is MO's TickrTrends verdict?

MO's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.

How does MO compare to other Consumer Defensive stocks?

MO ranks #59 of 64 Consumer Defensive stocks in TickrTrends' coverage when sorted by discount to Forward Fair Value.

Is MO overbought or oversold?

MO's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.

All Consumer Defensive fair-value coverage →

Head-to-head comparisons

MO vs ADM · MO vs BG · MO vs CALM · MO vs CCEP · MO vs CHEF