Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) fair value analysis

Nasdaq · Updated 2026-09-07

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates a chain of discount retail stores that sell closeout merchandise, overstock inventory, and brand-name products at reduced prices across a variety of categories including home goods, electronics, and seasonal items. The company operates stores primarily throughout the United States, with locations concentrated in the eastern and midwestern regions.

Forward Fair Value verdict

Undervalued

Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model, OLLI is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value.

OLLI currently ranks #3 of 64 Consumer Defensive stocks by discount to Forward Fair Value. It has screened as Undervalued for 3 consecutive weekly runs.

Last price: $74.67
Sector: Consumer Defensive
12-month range: $74.67–$127.64

Derived indicators

Coarse bands from TickrTrends' weekly models; exact figures are part of the full report.

Quality grade: D
Leverage: Low
RSI zone: Neutral
50/200-day trend: Mixed
52-week position: The bottom quarter of its range

What our data shows for OLLI

Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for OLLI, built from quarterly earnings records.
Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $74.67–$127.64.
The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 51.

The exact numbers are one step away

The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for OLLI
Exact discount / premium to today's price
The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes

See the exact fair value →

How Forward Fair Value works

TickrTrends computes a Forward Fair Value for every covered stock each week: a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple is applied to the analyst-consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year. Every input window is validated for continuity and every result is screened for plausibility before publication.

Recent OLLI news

TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for OLLI is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.

Ollie's Bargain Outlet Stock Falls on Weak Comps Despite Margin Gains (finance.yahoo.com, 2026-09-06)
TickrTrends take: Ollie's Bargain Outlet faces near-term headwinds from weak comparable store sales, though the company demonstrated operational progress through margin expansion. For investors monitoring valuation metrics, the disconnect between improving profitability measures and declining comps suggests tracking whether the sales weakness represents a temporary challenge or signals shifting consumer demand in the discount retail space. The Consumer Defensive sector positioning and TickrTrends' undervalued assessment warrant attention to whether margin gains can offset top-line pressure in upcoming quarters.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (OLLI) Shares Surge 3.9% -- What GF Score of 79 Tells Investors (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-04)
TickrTrends take: OLLI's recent share movement comes as the company maintains a GF Score of 79, which suggests relatively strong fundamental quality metrics within the Consumer Defensive sector. TickrTrends currently derives an Undervalued verdict for OLLI, indicating that investors monitoring valuation should track whether this quality assessment continues to support the discount relative to peers in its sector. The combination of a strong quality score with an undervalued rating presents a dynamic worth observing as market conditions and company fundamentals evolve.
OLLI Maintained by Citigroup -- Price Target Lowered to $98.00 (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-04)
TickrTrends take: Citigroup's reduction of its price target to $98 for OLLI suggests analyst caution about near-term performance, which contrasts with TickrTrends' undervalued assessment of the Consumer Defensive company. Valuation-focused readers should monitor whether the gap between the analyst's $98 target and current market pricing continues to narrow, as this may indicate whether the undervalued designation holds or shifts with incoming analyst revisions. The maintained rating combined with a lowered target could signal confidence in the company's long-term prospects while reflecting concerns about intermediate headwinds, a dynamic worth tracking against broader sector trends.

What people are saying

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TickrTrends weekly updates

2026-09-07 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-09-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-08-31 — TickrTrends initiated weekly Forward Fair Value coverage of this stock.

Frequently asked questions

Is OLLI stock undervalued?

Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-09-07), OLLI is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.

What is OLLI's TickrTrends verdict?

OLLI's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.

How does OLLI compare to other Consumer Defensive stocks?

OLLI ranks #3 of 64 Consumer Defensive stocks in TickrTrends' coverage when sorted by discount to Forward Fair Value.

Is OLLI overbought or oversold?

OLLI's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.

All Consumer Defensive fair-value coverage →

Head-to-head comparisons

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