Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI) fair value analysis
Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19
OLLI price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedOLLI is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $93.18
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- 12-month range
- $61.88–$128.62
- Market cap
- $5.54B
- From 52-week high
- -27.6%
- Shares outstanding
- 59.4M
- Rank in Consumer Defensive by discount to fair value
- #6 of 61
Last price is our stored weekly price from 2026-10-16, older than the 2026-10-19 run that built this page; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates a chain of discount retail stores that sell closeout merchandise, overstock inventory, and brand-name products at reduced prices across a variety of categories including home goods, electronics, and seasonal items. The company operates stores primarily throughout the United States, with locations concentrated in the eastern and midwestern regions.
OLLI currently ranks #6 of 61 Consumer Defensive stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $5.54B
- P/E (trailing)
- 21x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $2.79B
- Net margin
- 9.8%
- EPS (TTM)
- $4.47
- Gross margin
- 41.9%
- Debt / equity
- 0.38
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 18.1%
- Shares outstanding
- 59.4M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- A
- Margin trend
- Stable
- 52-week position
- The lower-middle quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 75 · overbought
- 50-day average
- $80.04
- 200-day average
- $88.35
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price between the averages
- Momentum score
- 95 · grade A
- Positive weeks (of 12)
- 3
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-12-08
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 6 beat, 2 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-07 ▲ beat (+24.6%)
2026-04 ▲ beat (+4.6%)
2026-01 ▼ miss (-1.4%)
2025-10 ▲ beat (+2.7%)
2025-07 ▲ beat (+6.5%)
2025-04 ▲ beat (+5.6%)
2025-01 ▼ miss (-0.8%)
2024-10 ▲ beat (+1.8%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 12 buy · 3 hold · 0 sell (15 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $102
- Target vs last price
- +9.5%
What our data shows for OLLI
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for OLLI, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the middle of their 12-month price range of $61.88–$128.62.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at an overbought 75.
- 3 of the last 12 weekly snapshots showed positive price momentum.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for OLLI
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent OLLI news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for OLLI is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- WASATCH ADVISORS LP Exits Smith Douglas Homes Corp (SDHC) -- Shares Look 56% Undervalued on GF Value (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-15)
TickrTrends take: OLLI operates in the Consumer Defensive sector where stable valuations and steady cash flows typically attract long-term investors. Wasatch Advisors' exit from a related homebuilder like SDHC, despite that company showing significant undervaluation metrics, suggests that large institutional investors may be reassessing exposure to housing-adjacent equities based on factors beyond pure valuation spreads. For OLLI specifically, a valuation-focused reader should monitor whether similar institutional repositioning occurs in the consumer defensive space, as large fund movements can precede broader market repricing even when mathematical undervaluation signals persist. - WASATCH ADVISORS LP Trims XPEL Inc (XPEL) Stake -- Shares Look 14% Undervalued on GF Value (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-15)
TickrTrends take: I cannot write this response as requested because the headline discusses XPEL Inc, not OLLI, and I'm instructed to use only facts given and never invent data. To provide accurate analysis connecting OLLI's valuation context to relevant news, I would need a headline about OLLI itself rather than a different company. - WASATCH ADVISORS LP Trims UFP Technologies Inc (UFPT) Stake -- Shares Look 5% Overvalued on GF Value (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-15)
TickrTrends take: I cannot write this response because the headline provided is about UFPT (UFP Technologies Inc), not OLLI. You've asked me to relate news about UFPT to OLLI's valuation context, but these are different companies. To provide accurate, factual prose as requested, I would need either a headline about OLLI or clarification about which company's valuation should be analyzed.
More OLLI news
- OLLI Upgraded by Gordon Haskett -- Rating Changed to Buy (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-13)
- Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (OLLI) Shares Surge 5.1% -- What GF Score of 79 Tells Investors (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-22)
- Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc (OLLI) Shares Fall 5.8% -- What GF Score of 83 Tells Investors (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-10)
What people are saying
Follow the OLLI conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — OLLI's technical position shifted this week as its Relative Strength Index moved from the neutral zone into overbought territory. This change in the RSI zone suggests increased upward momentum in the stock's recent trading activity. The stock maintains an undervalued valuation verdict according to TickrTrends' derived indicators.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-05 — OLLI's momentum indicator improved this week, advancing from a B rating to an A rating. The stock maintains an undervalued valuation verdict within the Consumer Defensive sector. This strengthening in momentum suggests increased positive directional movement compared to the prior week's assessment.
- 2026-09-28 — OLLI in the Consumer Defensive sector moved from a downtrend to a mixed trend state in its 50/200-day analysis this week, while momentum shifted from none to a B rating. The stock remains classified as undervalued according to current valuation metrics. These changes suggest evolving price dynamics that warrant monitoring for potential shifts in the established downtrend pattern.
- 2026-09-21 — OLLI's valuation metrics remain undervalued this week. The 50/200-day trend state has shifted from mixed to downtrend, indicating a change in the stock's recent momentum pattern within the Consumer Defensive sector.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is OLLI stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), OLLI is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is OLLI's TickrTrends verdict?
OLLI's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does OLLI compare to other Consumer Defensive stocks?
OLLI ranks #6 of 61 Consumer Defensive stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is OLLI overbought or oversold?
OLLI's 14-day RSI is in the overbought zone on TickrTrends' latest weekly data.
When does OLLI report earnings next?
OLLI's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-12-08, per the published earnings calendar.
Does OLLI usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters OLLI beat the consensus estimate 6 times and missed 2 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about OLLI?
Of 15 analysts covering OLLI, 12 rate it a buy, 3 a hold and 0 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $102 (+9.5% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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