Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
PM price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
OvervaluedPM is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $201.19
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- 12-month range
- $144.33–$205.58
- Market cap
- $314B
- From 52-week high
- -2.1%
- Shares outstanding
- 1.56B
- Rank in Consumer Defensive by discount to fair value
- #46 of 61
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Philip Morris International Inc. manufactures and sells cigarettes and other tobacco products to consumers worldwide. The company operates across multiple geographic regions including Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and the Americas.
PM currently ranks #46 of 61 Consumer Defensive stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Overvalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $314B
- P/E (trailing)
- 25x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $42.5B
- Net margin
- 25.6%
- EPS (TTM)
- $8.10
- Gross margin
- 68.4%
- Debt / equity
- 0.00
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 7.5%
- Shares outstanding
- 1.56B
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- B
- Margin trend
- Expanding
- 52-week position
- The top quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 65 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $191.28
- 200-day average
- $179.83
- Moving-average state
- 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price above both averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $6.01 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 2.99%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 17
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-10-02
- Last payment date
- 2026-10-26
Earnings how computed
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 7 beat, 0 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+7.8%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+7.1%)
2025-12 ▬ met (0.0%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+6.7%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+2.7%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+5.0%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+3.4%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+4.9%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 12 buy · 4 hold · 0 sell (16 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $209
- Target vs last price
- +3.9%
What our data shows for PM
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for PM, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $144.33–$205.58.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 65.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for PM
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent PM news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for PM is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Philip Morris International (PM) Reports Strong Q3 2026 Results with Record EPS and Solid Growth Outlook (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-21)
TickrTrends take: Philip Morris International reported strong third quarter 2026 results with record earnings per share and a positive growth outlook, yet TickrTrends currently rates the stock as overvalued. For investors focused on valuation metrics, the gap between PM's operational performance and its current market price warrants monitoring to determine whether upcoming results justify the existing valuation or whether the stock may face pressure. Given PM's position in the Consumer Defensive sector, where investors typically seek stability and reasonable valuations, the overvalued assessment suggests the market may be pricing in substantial future growth that could be vulnerable to disappointment. - Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-21)
TickrTrends take: Philip Morris International operates in the Consumer Defensive sector and is currently assessed as overvalued according to TickrTrends valuation metrics. Given this overvalued status, investors tracking valuation should pay particular attention to whether Q3 2026 results demonstrate earnings growth or margin expansion sufficient to justify the current price level. The earnings call will provide guidance and commentary that could either support the existing valuation or suggest further downside risk depending on how the company's financial performance and forward outlook compare to consensus expectations. - French Tobacco Sales Ban Proposal Could Pressure Philip Morris International (PM) Dividend Outlook (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-19)
TickrTrends take: Philip Morris International operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, which traditionally attracts investors seeking stable dividend income, yet TickrTrends currently marks the stock as Overvalued. A potential French tobacco sales ban represents a regulatory risk that could materially reduce revenue streams in a key European market and constrain the company's ability to maintain dividend payments at current levels. Given this combination of elevated valuation and emerging regulatory headwinds, investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether PM's current price adequately reflects the risk of dividend pressure from potential sales restrictions.
More PM news
- A Look at Philip Morris International Inc (PM) After 3.2% Gain -- GF Value $159.58 vs Price $205.58 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-14)
- Philip Morris International (PM) Shares Slip 0.8% After Six-Day Rally (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-13)
- Is PM Overvalued? DCF Says Worth $71 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-12)
- What is Philip Morris’ (PM) Economic Moat, and is it Widening or Narrowing? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-12)
What people are saying
Follow the PM conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for PM in the Consumer Defensive sector reflect a shift toward more neutral momentum this week, as the RSI zone moved from overbought to neutral territory. The current valuation verdict remains overvalued.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for PM in the Consumer Defensive sector show a shift in momentum this week, with the RSI zone moving from neutral into overbought territory. The current valuation verdict remains Overvalued.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is PM stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), PM is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is PM's TickrTrends verdict?
PM's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does PM compare to other Consumer Defensive stocks?
PM ranks #46 of 61 Consumer Defensive stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is PM overbought or oversold?
PM's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does PM pay a dividend?
Yes. PM paid $6.01 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 2.99% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 17 consecutive years. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-10-02.
Does PM usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters PM beat the consensus estimate 7 times and missed 0 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about PM?
Of 16 analysts covering PM, 12 rate it a buy, 4 a hold and 0 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $209 (+3.9% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
More in Consumer Defensive
Head-to-head comparisons
PM vs ADM · PM vs BG · PM vs CALM · PM vs CHEF · PM vs HNST