Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) fair value analysis

S&P 500 · Updated 2026-09-07

Philip Morris International Inc. manufactures and sells cigarettes and other tobacco products to consumers worldwide. The company operates across multiple geographic regions including Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and the Americas.

Forward Fair Value verdict

Overvalued

Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model, PM is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value.

PM currently ranks #56 of 64 Consumer Defensive stocks by discount to Forward Fair Value. It has screened as Overvalued for 3 consecutive weekly runs.

Last price: $182.53
Sector: Consumer Defensive
12-month range: $144.33–$190.82

Derived indicators

Coarse bands from TickrTrends' weekly models; exact figures are part of the full report.

Quality grade: B
Leverage: Low
Margin trend: Expanding
Revenue growth: Modest
RSI zone: Neutral
52-week position: The top quarter of its range
DCF cross-check: Overvalued

What our data shows for PM

Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for PM, built from quarterly earnings records.
Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $144.33–$190.82.
The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 39.

The exact numbers are one step away

The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for PM
Exact discount / premium to today's price
The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes

See the exact fair value →

How Forward Fair Value works

TickrTrends computes a Forward Fair Value for every covered stock each week: a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple is applied to the analyst-consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year. Every input window is validated for continuity and every result is screened for plausibility before publication.

Recent PM news

TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for PM is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.

FDA Authorization Expands Philip Morris’s Zyn Bet, Can It Pay Off? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-09-08)
TickrTrends take: Philip Morris received FDA authorization to expand its Zyn nicotine pouch product line, which could drive revenue growth in the oral nicotine category as the company shifts away from traditional cigarettes. Given that TickrTrends currently rates PM as overvalued, investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether this product expansion can justify the company's current market price through accelerating sales growth and margin expansion in coming quarters. The success of Zyn's market penetration will be a key factor in determining whether the stock's valuation premium can be sustained or whether it faces compression if growth fails to materialize as expected.
Meet the Dirt Cheap 6.4%-Yielding Dividend Stock That's Beating the Market in 2026 (finance.yahoo.com, 2026-09-06)
TickrTrends take: Philip Morris International trades at a valuation that TickrTrends classifies as overvalued, despite the market narrative around its dividend yield attracting income-focused investors. A valuation-conscious reader should note that the gap between the dividend appeal highlighted in market coverage and the current overvalued assessment suggests potential downside risk if the company's fundamentals do not justify its current price level. The Consumer Defensive sector positioning provides some stability, but investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether the yield sustainability can support the premium the market is currently pricing into the stock.
PM Looks 18.9% Overvalued on GF Value™ Amid Dividend Sustainability Concerns (gurufocus.com, 2026-08-31)
TickrTrends take: Philip Morris International trades at a valuation premium relative to its intrinsic value estimates, which aligns with TickrTrends' assessment that the stock is currently overvalued. Valuation-focused investors monitoring the stock should consider whether the company's dividend policy remains sustainable given its capital structure and cash generation, as these factors typically anchor long-term value assessments for consumer defensive companies. The gap between market price and estimated fair value suggests investors may want to wait for a more attractive entry point or monitor management's capital allocation decisions closely.

What people are saying

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TickrTrends weekly updates

2026-09-07 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-09-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-08-31 — TickrTrends initiated weekly Forward Fair Value coverage of this stock.

Frequently asked questions

Is PM stock undervalued?

Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-09-07), PM is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.

What is PM's TickrTrends verdict?

PM's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.

How does PM compare to other Consumer Defensive stocks?

PM ranks #56 of 64 Consumer Defensive stocks in TickrTrends' coverage when sorted by discount to Forward Fair Value.

Is PM overbought or oversold?

PM's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.

All Consumer Defensive fair-value coverage →

Head-to-head comparisons

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