The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
SJM price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
OvervaluedSJM is trading at a 10–25% premium to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $119.83
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- 12-month range
- $89.53–$132.34
- Market cap
- $12.8B
- From 52-week high
- -9.5%
- Shares outstanding
- 107M
- Rank in Consumer Defensive by discount to fair value
- #41 of 61
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
The J. M. Smucker Company manufactures and sells food and beverage products including jams, jellies, peanut butter, coffee, pet food, and other branded consumer goods. The company operates primarily in the United States and also maintains international operations across multiple markets.
SJM currently ranks #41 of 61 Consumer Defensive stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Overvalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $12.8B
- P/E (trailing)
- 11x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $9.16B
- Net margin
- 2.5%
- EPS (TTM)
- $10.49
- Gross margin
- 44.1%
- Debt / equity
- 1.20
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 4.8%
- Shares outstanding
- 107M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- D
- Margin trend
- Expanding
- 52-week position
- The upper-middle quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 62 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $122.51
- 200-day average
- $109.69
- Moving-average state
- 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price between the averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $4.42 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 3.69%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 16
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-08-14
- Last payment date
- 2026-09-01
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-11-24
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 6 beat, 1 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-07 ▲ beat (+46.6%)
2026-04 ▲ beat (+4.9%)
2026-01 ▲ beat (+4.8%)
2025-10 ▬ met (0.0%)
2025-07 ▼ miss (-1.6%)
2025-04 ▲ beat (+2.7%)
2025-01 ▲ beat (+10.1%)
2024-10 ▲ beat (+10.0%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 10 buy · 9 hold · 0 sell (19 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $142
- Target vs last price
- +18.5%
What our data shows for SJM
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for SJM, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $89.53–$132.34.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 62.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for SJM
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent SJM news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for SJM is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) Presents at Barclays 19th Annual Global Consumer Staples Conference Transcript (seekingalpha.com, 2026-09-08)
TickrTrends take: SJM's presentation at the Barclays conference provides an opportunity for investors to assess whether management commentary justifies the current overvalued assessment from TickrTrends. As a Consumer Defensive sector company, SJM typically trades on stable cash flows and defensive characteristics, making valuation metrics particularly important for evaluating whether the stock offers appropriate risk-reward positioning. Investors focused on valuation should monitor management's guidance on pricing power, cost pressures, and margin trends to determine if these factors support or challenge the current overvaluation verdict. - J. M. Smucker (SJM) Grew Sales 5% Due to Pricing. Is Volume Growth Broad Enough? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-08-29)
TickrTrends take: SJM achieved 5% sales growth primarily through pricing actions rather than volume expansion, which raises questions about the sustainability of revenue gains in a consumer defensive business where pricing power often faces limits. Given TickrTrends' overvalued assessment, investors focused on valuation should monitor whether volume trends stabilize or deteriorate further, as reliance on price increases without corresponding volume growth may not justify current market valuations. In the consumer defensive sector, where brands compete on value and loyalty, a divergence between pricing and volume growth warrants scrutiny regarding the company's pricing strategy and competitive positioning. - The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) Q1 2027 Earnings Call Prepared Remarks Transcript (seekingalpha.com, 2026-08-28)
TickrTrends take: SJM operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, where stable cash flows and predictable earnings typically support more moderate valuation multiples than growth-oriented industries. TickrTrends currently derives an Overvalued verdict for SJM, suggesting the market price may not align with fundamental metrics relative to sector peers. Valuation-focused readers should monitor whether Q1 2027 results and forward guidance demonstrate sufficient earnings power or margin expansion to justify the current market valuation, or whether the stock trades above what underlying business performance supports.
What people are saying
Follow the SJM conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for SJM have shifted this week, with the DCF cross-check band moving from a fairly valued assessment to an overvalued position. The current valuation verdict for the Consumer Defensive sector company remains overvalued. This change reflects a tightening or upward adjustment in the company's valuation metrics relative to its estimated intrinsic value range.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for SJM show movement this week as the relative strength index zone shifted from oversold to neutral conditions. The stock maintains an overvalued valuation verdict according to current assessments. This indicator change suggests a modest shift in momentum dynamics for the Consumer Defensive sector holding.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — SJM's relative strength index has shifted into oversold territory this week, moving from a neutral zone, which may suggest the stock has experienced recent selling pressure. The stock remains classified as overvalued based on current valuation metrics. This combination of technical weakness and elevated valuation leaves the security at a potentially conflicting crossroads for investors monitoring the Consumer Defensive sector.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is SJM stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), SJM is trading at a 10–25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is SJM's TickrTrends verdict?
SJM's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does SJM compare to other Consumer Defensive stocks?
SJM ranks #41 of 61 Consumer Defensive stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is SJM overbought or oversold?
SJM's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does SJM pay a dividend?
Yes. SJM paid $4.42 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 3.69% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 16 consecutive years. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-08-14.
When does SJM report earnings next?
SJM's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-11-24, per the published earnings calendar.
Does SJM usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters SJM beat the consensus estimate 6 times and missed 1 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about SJM?
Of 19 analysts covering SJM, 10 rate it a buy, 9 a hold and 0 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $142 (+18.5% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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