The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-09-07
The J. M. Smucker Company manufactures and sells food and beverage products including jams, jellies, peanut butter, coffee, pet food, and other branded consumer goods. The company operates primarily in the United States and also maintains international operations across multiple markets.
Forward Fair Value verdict
OvervaluedBased on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model, SJM is trading at a 10–25% premium to estimated fair value.
SJM currently ranks #53 of 64 Consumer Defensive stocks by discount to Forward Fair Value. It has screened as Overvalued for 3 consecutive weekly runs.
- Last price
- $126.08
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- 12-month range
- $95.49–$131.42
Derived indicators
Coarse bands from TickrTrends' weekly models; exact figures are part of the full report.
- Quality grade
- F
- Leverage
- Moderate
- Margin trend
- Contracting
- Revenue growth
- Declining
- RSI zone
- Neutral
- 52-week position
- The top quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Fairly Valued
What our data shows for SJM
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for SJM, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $95.49–$131.42.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 55.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for SJM
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
How Forward Fair Value works
TickrTrends computes a Forward Fair Value for every covered stock each week: a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple is applied to the analyst-consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year. Every input window is validated for continuity and every result is screened for plausibility before publication.
Recent SJM news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for SJM is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) Presents at Barclays 19th Annual Global Consumer Staples Conference Transcript (seekingalpha.com, 2026-09-08)
TickrTrends take: SJM's presentation at the Barclays conference provides an opportunity for investors to assess whether management commentary justifies the current overvalued assessment from TickrTrends. As a Consumer Defensive sector company, SJM typically trades on stable cash flows and defensive characteristics, making valuation metrics particularly important for evaluating whether the stock offers appropriate risk-reward positioning. Investors focused on valuation should monitor management's guidance on pricing power, cost pressures, and margin trends to determine if these factors support or challenge the current overvaluation verdict. - J. M. Smucker (SJM) Grew Sales 5% Due to Pricing. Is Volume Growth Broad Enough? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-08-29)
TickrTrends take: SJM achieved 5% sales growth primarily through pricing actions rather than volume expansion, which raises questions about the sustainability of revenue gains in a consumer defensive business where pricing power often faces limits. Given TickrTrends' overvalued assessment, investors focused on valuation should monitor whether volume trends stabilize or deteriorate further, as reliance on price increases without corresponding volume growth may not justify current market valuations. In the consumer defensive sector, where brands compete on value and loyalty, a divergence between pricing and volume growth warrants scrutiny regarding the company's pricing strategy and competitive positioning. - The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) Q1 2027 Earnings Call Prepared Remarks Transcript (seekingalpha.com, 2026-08-28)
TickrTrends take: SJM operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, where stable cash flows and predictable earnings typically support more moderate valuation multiples than growth-oriented industries. TickrTrends currently derives an Overvalued verdict for SJM, suggesting the market price may not align with fundamental metrics relative to sector peers. Valuation-focused readers should monitor whether Q1 2027 results and forward guidance demonstrate sufficient earnings power or margin expansion to justify the current market valuation, or whether the stock trades above what underlying business performance supports.
What people are saying
Follow the SJM conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-09-07 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for SJM showed a shift in the DCF cross-check band from undervalued to fairly valued this week, representing a movement toward higher valuation assessment. The current valuation verdict remains overvalued, indicating that the stock's price exceeds the fair value range established by the analytical framework. This change reflects a narrowing gap between market price and intrinsic value estimates within the Consumer Defensive sector positioning.
- 2026-09-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-08-31 — TickrTrends initiated weekly Forward Fair Value coverage of this stock.
Frequently asked questions
Is SJM stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-09-07), SJM is trading at a 10–25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is SJM's TickrTrends verdict?
SJM's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does SJM compare to other Consumer Defensive stocks?
SJM ranks #53 of 64 Consumer Defensive stocks in TickrTrends' coverage when sorted by discount to Forward Fair Value.
Is SJM overbought or oversold?
SJM's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
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