Target Corporation (TGT) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
TGT price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
Fairly valuedTGT is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $153.64
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- 12-month range
- $83.68–$169.89
- Market cap
- $69.8B
- From 52-week high
- -9.6%
- Shares outstanding
- 454M
- Rank in Consumer Defensive by discount to fair value
- #37 of 61
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Target Corporation is a general merchandise retailer that operates a chain of stores selling clothing, household goods, electronics, toys, and groceries. The company operates stores across the United States and also conducts business through its digital and e-commerce channels.
TGT currently ranks #37 of 61 Consumer Defensive stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Fairly valued for 4 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $69.8B
- P/E (trailing)
- 18x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $108B
- Net margin
- 4.1%
- EPS (TTM)
- $8.39
- Gross margin
- 33.7%
- Debt / equity
- 1.05
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 1.5%
- Shares outstanding
- 454M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- F
- Margin trend
- Expanding
- 52-week position
- The top quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 43 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $157.48
- 200-day average
- $131.63
- Moving-average state
- 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price between the averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $4.58 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 2.98%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 24
- Next ex-dividend date
- 2026-11-10
- Last payment date
- 2026-09-01
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-11-18
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 6 beat, 2 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-07 ▲ beat (+7.0%)
2026-04 ▲ beat (+17.1%)
2026-01 ▲ beat (+13.0%)
2025-10 ▲ beat (+4.1%)
2025-07 ▲ beat (+1.0%)
2025-04 ▼ miss (-21.2%)
2025-01 ▲ beat (+7.1%)
2024-10 ▼ miss (-19.6%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 13 buy · 21 hold · 4 sell (38 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Hold-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $163
- Target vs last price
- +6.1%
What our data shows for TGT
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for TGT, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $83.68–$169.89.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 43.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for TGT
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent TGT news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for TGT is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Target: Sense Of Newness Drives Accelerated, Profitable Growth Prospects (NYSE:TGT) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-13)
TickrTrends take: Target operates in the Consumer Defensive sector and is currently assessed as fairly valued according to TickrTrends analysis. The company's stated focus on creating a sense of newness to drive growth and profitability represents an operational strategy that investors tracking valuation metrics should monitor for evidence of sustained execution and margin expansion. Given the fair valuation assessment, investors should observe whether management can deliver the promised acceleration in both growth and profitability improvements, as this would be necessary to justify any valuation re-rating. - Hedgeye Flags Target (TGT) as Short Amid Dividend Sustainability Concerns (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-12)
TickrTrends take: Hedgeye's short call on Target raises questions about the company's ability to sustain its dividend payments going forward, which is particularly relevant given that TGT currently trades at a fairly valued level according to TickrTrends. For dividend-focused investors in the Consumer Defensive sector, the sustainability of payouts represents a key metric to monitor alongside valuation, since a cut to distributions could pressure the stock even at current price levels. Readers should track Target's free cash flow generation and payout ratio trends to assess whether dividend concerns are justified or represent an overreaction by the short seller. - Target’s Sales Are Recovering After 10,000+ Price Cuts. Is the Turnaround Already Priced In? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-07)
TickrTrends take: Target operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, where TickrTrends currently derives an Overvalued verdict for the stock. The headline indicates the company is experiencing sales recovery through aggressive pricing strategies, which raises a question about whether the market has already incorporated expectations of this turnaround into the current valuation. Given the Overvalued assessment, investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether the sales recovery translates into sustainable margin improvements or if the extensive price cuts continue to pressure profitability relative to the stock's current price.
More TGT news
- Target (TGT) Surges 21.1% in Q3 Amid Consumer Shift; Dividend Sustainability in Focus (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-04)
What people are saying
Follow the TGT conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — # TGT Weekly Indicator Summary TickrTrends' derived indicators for TGT showed improvement this week as the stock's valuation verdict shifted from Overvalued to Fairly valued. This change suggests that recent price movements have brought the stock's valuation metrics into better alignment with its fundamental characteristics within the Consumer Defensive sector. The shift in verdict represents a notable recalibration of TGT's valuation standing compared to the prior week.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for TGT shifted this week, with the valuation verdict moving from Fairly valued to Overvalued. This change reflects a reassessment of the Consumer Defensive sector company's current pricing relative to its fundamental metrics. The stock now appears to be trading above levels supported by its underlying financial condition according to TickrTrends' analysis.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is TGT stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), TGT is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value and screens as fairly valued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is TGT's TickrTrends verdict?
TGT's current verdict is Fairly valued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does TGT compare to other Consumer Defensive stocks?
TGT ranks #37 of 61 Consumer Defensive stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is TGT overbought or oversold?
TGT's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does TGT pay a dividend?
Yes. TGT paid $4.58 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 2.98% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 24 consecutive years. The next ex-dividend date on file is 2026-11-10.
When does TGT report earnings next?
TGT's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-11-18, per the published earnings calendar.
Does TGT usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters TGT beat the consensus estimate 6 times and missed 2 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about TGT?
Of 38 analysts covering TGT, 13 rate it a buy, 21 a hold and 4 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $163 (+6.1% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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