Target Corporation (TGT) fair value analysis

S&P 500 · Updated 2026-09-07

Target Corporation is a general merchandise retailer that operates a chain of stores selling clothing, household goods, electronics, toys, and groceries. The company operates stores across the United States and also conducts business through its digital and e-commerce channels.

Forward Fair Value verdict

Overvalued

Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model, TGT is trading at a 10–25% premium to estimated fair value.

TGT currently ranks #49 of 64 Consumer Defensive stocks by discount to Forward Fair Value. It has screened as Overvalued for 3 consecutive weekly runs.

Last price: $164.44
Sector: Consumer Defensive
12-month range: $90.31–$163.75

Derived indicators

Coarse bands from TickrTrends' weekly models; exact figures are part of the full report.

Quality grade: F
Leverage: Moderate
Margin trend: Stable
Revenue growth: Declining
RSI zone: Neutral
52-week position: The top quarter of its range
DCF cross-check: Overvalued

What our data shows for TGT

Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for TGT, built from quarterly earnings records.
Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $90.31–$163.75.
The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 66.

The exact numbers are one step away

The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for TGT
Exact discount / premium to today's price
The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes

See the exact fair value →

How Forward Fair Value works

TickrTrends computes a Forward Fair Value for every covered stock each week: a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple is applied to the analyst-consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year. Every input window is validated for continuity and every result is screened for plausibility before publication.

Recent TGT news

TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for TGT is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.

Walmart Has Gone Practically Nowhere, While Target Is Up 68%. But Only 1 of These Dividend Kings Is a Buy in September. (finance.yahoo.com, 2026-09-08)
TickrTrends take: Target's 68 percent stock price increase contrasts sharply with Walmart's stagnation, yet TickrTrends currently rates Target as overvalued despite its outperformance. For investors focused on valuation metrics, this divergence suggests that Target's recent gains may have already priced in future growth expectations, warranting careful examination of whether the stock's current price level still offers margin of safety relative to its fundamentals. In the Consumer Defensive sector where both retailers compete, a valuation-overvalued rating indicates that Target's valuation multiples may have extended beyond levels historically associated with attractive entry points.
Target Has Raised Its Dividend Through Every Market Crash Since 1971. Should Income Investors Still Buy It? (finance.yahoo.com, 2026-09-07)
TickrTrends take: Target's consistent dividend history across market cycles demonstrates operational resilience, though TickrTrends currently assesses the stock as overvalued within the Consumer Defensive sector. For income-focused investors, the valuation concern presents a trade-off between the appeal of a reliable dividend payer and the current price relative to fundamental value. A valuation-focused reader should monitor whether Target's earnings growth justifies the existing stock price or if a pullback might offer a more attractive entry point for dividend accumulation.
Scale, Store Footprint, and Same-Day Delivery Drive Target’s (TGT) Competitive Edge (finance.yahoo.com, 2026-09-04)
TickrTrends take: Target's operational advantages in scale, store footprint, and same-day delivery capabilities strengthen its competitive positioning, yet TickrTrends currently assigns an Overvalued verdict to the stock within the Consumer Defensive sector. For valuation-focused investors, the key consideration is whether these structural competitive benefits justify the current market valuation relative to the company's earnings and cash flow generation. Monitoring how effectively Target converts these logistics and distribution advantages into margin expansion and comparable store sales growth will be critical to determining whether the overvaluation narrative persists or reverses.

What people are saying

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TickrTrends weekly updates

2026-09-07 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-09-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-08-31 — TickrTrends initiated weekly Forward Fair Value coverage of this stock.

Frequently asked questions

Is TGT stock undervalued?

Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-09-07), TGT is trading at a 10–25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.

What is TGT's TickrTrends verdict?

TGT's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.

How does TGT compare to other Consumer Defensive stocks?

TGT ranks #49 of 64 Consumer Defensive stocks in TickrTrends' coverage when sorted by discount to Forward Fair Value.

Is TGT overbought or oversold?

TGT's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.

All Consumer Defensive fair-value coverage →

Head-to-head comparisons

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