Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) fair value analysis

S&P 500 · Updated 2026-09-07

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is a global processor of agricultural commodities that produces ingredients and products for the food, beverage, animal feed, and biofuel industries. The company operates production facilities and distribution networks across North America, South America, Europe, Asia, and other regions worldwide.

Forward Fair Value verdict

Overvalued

Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model, ADM is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value.

ADM currently ranks #57 of 64 Consumer Defensive stocks by discount to Forward Fair Value. It has screened as Overvalued for 3 consecutive weekly runs.

Last price: $84.61
Sector: Consumer Defensive
12-month range: $59.05–$84.55

Derived indicators

Coarse bands from TickrTrends' weekly models; exact figures are part of the full report.

Quality grade: F
Leverage: Low
Margin trend: Contracting
Revenue growth: Declining
RSI zone: Neutral
52-week position: The top quarter of its range
DCF cross-check: Undervalued

What our data shows for ADM

Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for ADM, built from quarterly earnings records.
Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $59.05–$84.55.
The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 66.

The exact numbers are one step away

The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for ADM
Exact discount / premium to today's price
The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes

See the exact fair value →

How Forward Fair Value works

TickrTrends computes a Forward Fair Value for every covered stock each week: a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple is applied to the analyst-consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year. Every input window is validated for continuity and every result is screened for plausibility before publication.

Recent ADM news

TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for ADM is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.

DAR Looks 56.7% Overvalued on GF Value™ as Q2 Earnings Season Wraps (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-01)
TickrTrends take: ADM operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, which is traditionally viewed as stable but often commands premium valuations during periods of economic uncertainty. The recent finding that a comparable company in earnings season appears significantly overvalued according to GF Value metrics aligns with TickrTrends' current assessment that ADM itself trades at overvalued levels. Investors focused on valuation should monitor whether ADM's upcoming earnings results and forward guidance can justify its current price relative to fundamentals, or if the market has priced in growth expectations that may prove difficult to achieve.
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) Bets Big On Oilseed Crush Capacity (finance.yahoo.com, 2026-09-01)
TickrTrends take: ADM's investment in oilseed crush capacity represents a significant capital commitment that could impact future earnings and cash flow generation for investors evaluating the company at current price levels. Given TickrTrends' assessment that ADM is overvalued, this expansion strategy becomes a key variable in determining whether the company can justify its present valuation through incremental revenue and margin improvement from increased processing capacity. Valuation-focused readers should monitor how efficiently ADM deploys this capacity and whether the returns on this capital investment align with or exceed the cost of capital implied by the current stock price.
ADM Looks 34.2% Overvalued on GF Value™ as Dividend Sustainability Faces Mixed Signals (gurufocus.com, 2026-08-30)
TickrTrends take: ADM is currently flagged as overvalued by TickrTrends, which aligns with the GF Value assessment indicating significant overvaluation. For investors focused on valuation metrics, the tension between ADM's current price and its intrinsic value estimates suggests limited margin of safety, particularly given the mixed signals surrounding the sustainability of its dividend payments. In the Consumer Defensive sector, where stable cash flows typically support dividend reliability, the uncertainty around ADM's payout capacity represents a key risk factor to monitor alongside the valuation premium.

What people are saying

Follow the ADM conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X

TickrTrends weekly updates

2026-09-07 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-09-06 — ADM's momentum indicator declined this week, shifting from a positive A rating to no rating, suggesting a loss of upward price momentum in the Consumer Defensive sector. The stock remains classified as overvalued according to current valuation metrics. This combination of weakening momentum alongside an overvalued status may warrant monitoring for investors tracking this position.
2026-08-31 — TickrTrends initiated weekly Forward Fair Value coverage of this stock.

Frequently asked questions

Is ADM stock undervalued?

Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-09-07), ADM is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.

What is ADM's TickrTrends verdict?

ADM's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.

How does ADM compare to other Consumer Defensive stocks?

ADM ranks #57 of 64 Consumer Defensive stocks in TickrTrends' coverage when sorted by discount to Forward Fair Value.

Is ADM overbought or oversold?

ADM's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.

All Consumer Defensive fair-value coverage →

Head-to-head comparisons

ADM vs BG · ADM vs CALM · ADM vs CCEP · ADM vs CHEF · ADM vs IMKTA