Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
ADM price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
OvervaluedADM is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $79.89
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- 12-month range
- $56.00–$88.09
- Market cap
- $38.5B
- From 52-week high
- -9.3%
- Shares outstanding
- 482M
- Rank in Consumer Defensive by discount to fair value
- #43 of 61
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is a global processor of agricultural commodities that produces ingredients and products for the food, beverage, animal feed, and biofuel industries. The company operates production facilities and distribution networks across North America, South America, Europe, Asia, and other regions worldwide.
ADM currently ranks #43 of 61 Consumer Defensive stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Overvalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $38.5B
- P/E (trailing)
- 18x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $82.1B
- Net margin
- 2.2%
- EPS (TTM)
- $4.34
- Gross margin
- 8.5%
- Debt / equity
- 0.40
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 1.5%
- Shares outstanding
- 482M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- F
- Margin trend
- Stable
- 52-week position
- The upper-middle quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 39 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $82.20
- 200-day average
- $75.61
- Moving-average state
- 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price between the averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $2.07 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 2.59%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 26
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-08-19
- Last payment date
- 2026-09-09
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-11-03 (pre-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 5 beat, 2 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+29.6%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+7.6%)
2025-12 ▼ miss (-1.8%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+9.5%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+16.2%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+4.5%)
2024-12 ▼ miss (-0.9%)
2024-09 ▬ met (0.0%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 1 buy · 8 hold · 2 sell (11 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Hold-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $80.2
- Target vs last price
- +0.4%
What our data shows for ADM
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for ADM, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $56.00–$88.09.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 39.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for ADM
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent ADM news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for ADM is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- ArcherDaniels’ Dividend Reliability Meets Cyclical Uncertainty (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-15)
TickrTrends take: Archer Daniels Midland operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, a classification typically associated with stable cash flows and reliable income distributions, which aligns with the dividend reliability mentioned in recent commentary. However, TickrTrends currently assesses ADM as overvalued, suggesting that the market price may not adequately reflect the cyclical pressures inherent in agricultural commodities and processing businesses. Investors focused on valuation should monitor whether ADM's dividend sustainability can withstand commodity price volatility and whether current pricing leaves sufficient margin of safety relative to earnings power through commodity cycles. - 10 Best Beverage Dividend Stocks To Buy According to Hedge Funds (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-15)
TickrTrends take: ADM appears on a list of beverage dividend stocks favored by hedge funds, which may reflect confidence in its dividend-paying ability and market position. However, TickrTrends currently rates ADM as overvalued, suggesting that its current price may not fully account for risks or may exceed what fundamentals support. Investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether the market will adjust the stock's price relative to its earnings and dividend sustainability, particularly given the Consumer Defensive sector's typically lower growth expectations. - Jim Cramer Says ADM’s “Time Has Come” and Names Another Agricultural Favorite (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-11)
TickrTrends take: ADM operates in the Consumer Defensive sector and carries a TickrTrends valuation assessment of Overvalued. Positive commentary from analysts regarding agricultural companies does not automatically adjust fundamental valuation metrics, and investors focused on valuation should monitor whether ADM's stock price aligns with its earnings multiples and book value relative to sector peers. A valuation-focused reader tracking this stock should watch for any subsequent changes in ADM's financial performance that might warrant reassessment of its current overvalued status.
More ADM news
- Archer-Daniels Stock is Trading at 15 Times Forward Earnings. Is that Cheap? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-04)
- Archer-Daniels-Midland: The Numbers Are Pointing To A Fresh Start (NYSE:ADM) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-09-29)
What people are saying
Follow the ADM conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is ADM stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), ADM is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is ADM's TickrTrends verdict?
ADM's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does ADM compare to other Consumer Defensive stocks?
ADM ranks #43 of 61 Consumer Defensive stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is ADM overbought or oversold?
ADM's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does ADM pay a dividend?
Yes. ADM paid $2.07 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 2.59% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 26 consecutive years. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-08-19.
When does ADM report earnings next?
ADM's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-11-03 (pre-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does ADM usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters ADM beat the consensus estimate 5 times and missed 2 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about ADM?
Of 11 analysts covering ADM, 1 rate it a buy, 8 a hold and 2 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $80.2 (+0.4% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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