The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) fair value analysis
Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19
SMPL price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedSMPL is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $11.19
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- 12-month range
- $9.43–$21.40
- Market cap
- $990M
- From 52-week high
- -47.7%
- Shares outstanding
- 88.4M
- Rank in Consumer Defensive by discount to fair value
- #51 of 61
Last price is our stored weekly price from 2026-10-16, older than the 2026-10-19 run that built this page; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
The Simply Good Foods Company is a consumer packaged foods company that produces and markets nutritious snack foods, bars, and other food products designed to appeal to health-conscious consumers. The company operates primarily in the United States, where it manufactures, distributes, and sells its products through retail channels including supermarkets, convenience stores, and other food retailers.
SMPL currently ranks #51 of 61 Consumer Defensive stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $990M
- P/E (trailing)
- 7x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $1.39B
- Net margin
- -14.3%
- EPS (TTM)
- $1.66
- Gross margin
- 32.5%
- Debt / equity
- 0.28
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 3.8%
- Shares outstanding
- 88.4M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- B
- Margin trend
- Contracting
- 52-week position
- The bottom quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Undervalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 72 · overbought
- 50-day average
- $10.49
- 200-day average
- $13.32
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price between the averages
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-10-27 (pre-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 6 beat, 1 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-05 ▲ beat (+12.5%)
2026-02 ▲ beat (+12.5%)
2025-11 ▲ beat (+8.3%)
2025-08 ▼ miss (-2.1%)
2025-05 ▲ beat (+2.0%)
2025-02 ▲ beat (+15.0%)
2024-11 ▲ beat (+6.5%)
2024-08 ▬ met (0.0%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 4 buy · 7 hold · 0 sell (11 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Hold-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $14.4
- Target vs last price
- +28.7%
What our data shows for SMPL
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for SMPL, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $9.43–$21.40.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at an overbought 72.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for SMPL
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent SMPL news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for SMPL is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- ROSEN, TRUSTED INVESTOR COUNSEL, Encourages The Simply Good Foods Company Investors to Secure Counsel Before Important Deadline in Securities Class Action - SMPL (markets.businessinsider.com, 2026-09-06)
TickrTrends take: The Simply Good Foods Company is trading at an undervalued level according to TickrTrends analysis within the Consumer Defensive sector, which typically features stable demand characteristics. The announced securities class action introduces legal risk that investors should monitor for potential financial impact, as litigation outcomes can affect shareholder value and capital allocation. Valuation-focused investors should track developments in this case alongside SMPL's operational performance to assess whether the current undervaluation reflects appropriate compensation for the legal uncertainties now facing the company. - ROSEN, TOP RANKED GLOBAL COUNSEL, Encourages The Simply Good Foods Company Investors to Secure Counsel Before Important Deadline in Securities Class Action - SMPL (markets.businessinsider.com, 2026-09-05)
TickrTrends take: The Simply Good Foods Company faces a securities class action that could have material financial implications, which valuation-focused investors should monitor for potential impact on future earnings and liabilities. TickrTrends currently rates SMPL as undervalued within the Consumer Defensive sector, though the outcome and costs associated with this legal action represent a risk factor that could influence the company's financial position and reassessment of that valuation standing. Investors tracking this situation should watch for any disclosure updates regarding settlement amounts or legal expenses that could affect the company's reported results. - ROSEN, RECOGNIZED INVESTOR COUNSEL, Encourages The Simply Good Foods Company Investors to Secure Counsel Before Important Deadline in Securities Class Action - SMPL (markets.businessinsider.com, 2026-09-04)
TickrTrends take: The Simply Good Foods Company operates in the Consumer Defensive sector, which typically attracts investors seeking stability during market volatility. TickrTrends currently rates SMPL as undervalued, suggesting potential upside if the company's fundamentals remain sound amid the securities class action development. Investors monitoring SMPL should track how legal proceedings progress, as material litigation outcomes could either validate the undervalued assessment or alter the company's risk profile going forward.
What people are saying
Follow the SMPL conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — SMPL remains undervalued according to current valuation metrics. The 50/200-day trend state shifted from downtrend to mixed this week, while the RSI zone moved from neutral to overbought, indicating changing momentum conditions in the Consumer Defensive sector stock.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-05 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — SMPL is trading in a downtrend according to its 50/200-day trend state, which shifted from mixed this week. The stock remains undervalued at its current price relative to fundamental metrics. This combination of deteriorating momentum with an undervalued valuation presents a conflicting picture for investors evaluating the Consumer Defensive stock.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is SMPL stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), SMPL is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is SMPL's TickrTrends verdict?
SMPL's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does SMPL compare to other Consumer Defensive stocks?
SMPL ranks #51 of 61 Consumer Defensive stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is SMPL overbought or oversold?
SMPL's 14-day RSI is in the overbought zone on TickrTrends' latest weekly data.
When does SMPL report earnings next?
SMPL's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-10-27 (pre-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does SMPL usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters SMPL beat the consensus estimate 6 times and missed 1 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about SMPL?
Of 11 analysts covering SMPL, 4 rate it a buy, 7 a hold and 0 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $14.4 (+28.7% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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