The Mosaic Company (MOS) fair value analysis

S&P 500 · Updated 2026-09-07

The Mosaic Company is a producer of phosphate and potash fertilizers used in agriculture worldwide. The company operates mines and production facilities across North America, including locations in Florida, Louisiana, and Saskatchewan.

Forward Fair Value verdict

Overvalued

Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model, MOS is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value.

MOS currently ranks #25 of 27 Basic Materials stocks by discount to Forward Fair Value. It has screened as Overvalued for 3 consecutive weekly runs.

Last price: $25.85
Sector: Basic Materials
12-month range: $21.81–$27.51

Derived indicators

Coarse bands from TickrTrends' weekly models; exact figures are part of the full report.

Quality grade: F
Leverage: Low
Margin trend: Stable
Revenue growth: Declining
RSI zone: Neutral
52-week position: The upper-middle quarter of its range

What our data shows for MOS

Our model validated 12 trailing price-to-earnings windows for MOS, built from quarterly earnings records.
Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $21.81–$27.51.
The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 64.

The exact numbers are one step away

The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for MOS
Exact discount / premium to today's price
The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes

See the exact fair value →

How Forward Fair Value works

TickrTrends computes a Forward Fair Value for every covered stock each week: a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple is applied to the analyst-consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year. Every input window is validated for continuity and every result is screened for plausibility before publication.

Recent MOS news

TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for MOS is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.

MOS Looks 16.9% Undervalued on GF Value™ Amid Unprofitability and Mixed Guru Sentiment (gurufocus.com, 2026-08-27)
TickrTrends take: MOS trades at a valuation discount according to GuruFocus metrics, creating a disconnect with TickrTrends' overvalued assessment that warrants examination by value-oriented investors. The company's current unprofitability presents a fundamental risk that complicates traditional valuation models, particularly in the cyclical Basic Materials sector where earnings sustainability matters significantly. Investors monitoring this discrepancy should track whether MOS returns to profitability, as this would either validate the GuruFocus undervaluation signal or reinforce concerns about the sustainability of any valuation floor.
MOS Looks 15.5% Undervalued on GF Value™ Amid New U.S. Fertilizer Plant Plans (gurufocus.com, 2026-08-26)
TickrTrends take: MOS is rated Overvalued by TickrTrends' current analysis, which contrasts with the GF Value assessment suggesting undervaluation based on the company's fertilizer expansion plans. The divergence between these valuations reflects different methodologies and assumptions about how the company's capital investments in U.S. production capacity will affect future earnings in the Basic Materials sector. Investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor how MOS executes these plant plans and whether actual financial results eventually reconcile the conflicting assessments.
Schwab Network - Stock Market & Finance News with Investing Updates (profitconfidential.com, 2026-08-14)
TickrTrends take: I appreciate your request, but I'm unable to complete this task because you haven't provided the specific news content from the Schwab Network headline about MOS (Mosaic Company). Without the actual details of what the headline reports—whether it concerns earnings, production changes, commodity prices, acquisitions, or other material developments—I cannot write factually accurate prose connecting the news to the TickrTrends overvalued assessment. To write this piece properly, I would need you to share the substantive content of the headline or article so I can relate specific facts to the valuation context you've outlined.

What people are saying

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TickrTrends weekly updates

2026-09-07 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-09-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-08-31 — TickrTrends initiated weekly Forward Fair Value coverage of this stock.

Frequently asked questions

Is MOS stock undervalued?

Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-09-07), MOS is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.

What is MOS's TickrTrends verdict?

MOS's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.

How does MOS compare to other Basic Materials stocks?

MOS ranks #25 of 27 Basic Materials stocks in TickrTrends' coverage when sorted by discount to Forward Fair Value.

Is MOS overbought or oversold?

MOS's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.

All Basic Materials fair-value coverage →

Head-to-head comparisons

MOS vs ALB · MOS vs APD · MOS vs CE · MOS vs CF · MOS vs CTVA