The Mosaic Company (MOS) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
MOS price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
Fairly valuedMOS is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $18.74
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- 12-month range
- $18.74–$31.36
- Market cap
- $5.96B
- From 52-week high
- -40.2%
- Shares outstanding
- 318M
- Rank in Basic Materials by discount to fair value
- #26 of 26
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
The Mosaic Company is a producer of phosphate and potash fertilizers used in agriculture worldwide. The company operates mines and production facilities across North America, including locations in Florida, Louisiana, and Saskatchewan.
MOS currently ranks #26 of 26 Basic Materials stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Fairly valued for 4 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $5.96B
- P/E (trailing)
- 13x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $11.9B
- Net margin
- 0.4%
- EPS (TTM)
- $1.44
- Gross margin
- 7.6%
- Debt / equity
- 0.51
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- -6.8%
- Shares outstanding
- 318M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- F
- Margin trend
- Contracting
- 52-week position
- The bottom quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 16 · oversold
- 50-day average
- $22.93
- 200-day average
- $24.27
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price below both averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $0.88 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 4.70%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 1
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-09-10
- Last payment date
- 2026-09-24
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-11-03 (post-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 3 beat, 5 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+44.4%)
2026-03 ▼ miss (-85.1%)
2025-12 ▼ miss (-50.0%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+9.5%)
2025-06 ▼ miss (-29.2%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+8.9%)
2024-12 ▼ miss (-26.1%)
2024-09 ▼ miss (-34.6%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 9 buy · 9 hold · 2 sell (20 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Hold-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $26.3
- Target vs last price
- +40.3%
What our data shows for MOS
- Our model validated 12 trailing price-to-earnings windows for MOS, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $18.74–$31.36.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at an oversold 16.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for MOS
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent MOS news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for MOS is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Mosaic’s 4.6% Yield Could Be a Trap if Earnings Keep Struggling (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-17)
TickrTrends take: Mosaic trades at a valuation level that TickrTrends currently assesses as fairly valued, meaning the market price already reflects baseline expectations for the company's earnings capacity. However, the headline raises a concern about whether the yield sustainability depends on earnings stability, which is a key driver of valuation multiples in the Basic Materials sector. For investors focused on valuation, the critical question is whether current fairly valued pricing holds if earnings deteriorate further, as dividend cuts would typically compress valuations in this cyclical industry. - MOS Looks 13.4% Undervalued on GF Value™ as Price-to-Sales Signals Caution (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-23)
TickrTrends take: MOS is currently rated as overvalued by TickrTrends, yet the GF Value metric suggests the stock appears undervalued by a significant margin based on price-to-sales analysis. This divergence between different valuation methodologies highlights the tension in how investors are pricing the stock relative to various fundamental measures. For valuation-focused readers, the key observation is that while some metrics signal attractiveness, the overall TickrTrends assessment remains cautious, suggesting that investors should monitor which valuation framework ultimately proves more predictive for a Basic Materials company operating in cyclical markets. - MOS Looks 16.1% Undervalued on GF Value™ Despite Market Concerns (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-21)
TickrTrends take: MOS trades with conflicting valuation signals, as the GF Value metric suggests meaningful undervaluation while TickrTrends' analysis currently rates the stock as overvalued. This divergence reflects the different methodologies and time horizons these valuation frameworks employ, particularly relevant for a Basic Materials company subject to commodity price cycles and market sentiment shifts. Investors focused on valuation should monitor which assessment proves more predictive as MOS earnings and market conditions evolve.
More MOS news
- Mosaic Co. (MOS) Was Just Added to the Portfolio: Why the Fertilizer Stock Looks Undervalued (finance.yahoo.com, 2026-09-21)
What people are saying
Follow the MOS conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for MOS showed a shift this week as the Relative Strength Index moved from neutral territory into oversold zone, signaling increased downward momentum in the Basic Materials sector stock. The current valuation verdict remains Overvalued despite this technical deterioration in MOS's price action.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is MOS stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), MOS is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value and screens as fairly valued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is MOS's TickrTrends verdict?
MOS's current verdict is Fairly valued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does MOS compare to other Basic Materials stocks?
MOS ranks #26 of 26 Basic Materials stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is MOS overbought or oversold?
MOS's 14-day RSI is in the oversold zone on TickrTrends' latest weekly data.
Does MOS pay a dividend?
Yes. MOS paid $0.88 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 4.70% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 1 consecutive year. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-09-10.
When does MOS report earnings next?
MOS's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-11-03 (post-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does MOS usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters MOS beat the consensus estimate 3 times and missed 5 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about MOS?
Of 20 analysts covering MOS, 9 rate it a buy, 9 a hold and 2 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $26.3 (+40.3% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
More in Basic Materials
Head-to-head comparisons
MOS vs ALB · MOS vs APD · MOS vs BCPC · MOS vs CF · MOS vs DD