Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI) fair value analysis

Nasdaq · Updated 2026-09-07

Midland States Bancorp, Inc. is a bank holding company that provides community banking services including commercial and consumer lending, deposit products, and financial services to customers. The company operates primarily through its subsidiary banks serving communities across the Midwest and South.

Forward Fair Value verdict

Overvalued

Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model, MSBI is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value.

MSBI currently ranks #160 of 165 Financial Services stocks by discount to Forward Fair Value. It has screened as Overvalued for 3 consecutive weekly runs.

Last price: $34.24
Sector: Financial Services
12-month range: $15.23–$34.24

Derived indicators

Coarse bands from TickrTrends' weekly models; exact figures are part of the full report.

Quality grade: D
Leverage: Low
RSI zone: Neutral
50/200-day trend: Uptrend
52-week position: The top quarter of its range

What our data shows for MSBI

Our model validated 12 trailing price-to-earnings windows for MSBI, built from quarterly earnings records.
Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $15.23–$34.24.
The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 54.

The exact numbers are one step away

The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for MSBI
Exact discount / premium to today's price
The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes

See the exact fair value →

How Forward Fair Value works

TickrTrends computes a Forward Fair Value for every covered stock each week: a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple is applied to the analyst-consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year. Every input window is validated for continuity and every result is screened for plausibility before publication.

Recent MSBI news

TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for MSBI is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.

Midland States Bancorp Stock: Improving Asset Quality Drives Earnings (NASDAQ:MSBI) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-08-19)
TickrTrends take: Midland States Bancorp's improving asset quality should theoretically support stronger future earnings, yet TickrTrends currently rates the stock as overvalued despite these operational improvements. For valuation-focused investors, the disconnect between operational progress and the overvalued assessment suggests the market may have already priced in these gains or that other metrics within the Financial Services sector indicate MSBI's current valuation does not align with fundamental support. Monitoring whether asset quality gains translate into measurable earnings expansion relative to sector peers will be critical to determining if the overvalued designation is sustainable.
Midland States Bancorp: 7.7% Yielding Preferred Share From A Regional Bank (NASDAQ:MSBI) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-08-18)
TickrTrends take: Midland States Bancorp is offering a preferred share with a yield that reflects the current interest rate environment for regional banking institutions. Given TickrTrends' assessment that MSBI trades at overvalued levels, investors considering this preferred offering should evaluate whether the yield adequately compensates for the premium valuation of the underlying company. A valuation-focused reader should monitor whether the preferred share pricing reflects realistic risk premiums relative to the common equity's current market standing.
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. Increases Common Stock Cash Dividend to $0.33 Per Share and Declares Preferred Stock Dividend (manilatimes.net, 2026-08-04)
TickrTrends take: Midland States Bancorp increased its common stock cash dividend per share, signaling confidence in cash generation capabilities despite current overvaluation concerns in TickrTrends' assessment. For investors focused on valuation metrics, this dividend increase warrants examination of whether the payout ratio remains sustainable relative to earnings, particularly given the overvalued rating in the Financial Services sector. The dividend decision should be contextualized against the company's recent earnings trends and capital position to determine if the raise reflects genuine operational strength or represents management confidence that may not align with current market pricing.

What people are saying

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TickrTrends weekly updates

2026-09-07 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-09-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-08-31 — TickrTrends initiated weekly Forward Fair Value coverage of this stock.

Frequently asked questions

Is MSBI stock undervalued?

Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-09-07), MSBI is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.

What is MSBI's TickrTrends verdict?

MSBI's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.

How does MSBI compare to other Financial Services stocks?

MSBI ranks #160 of 165 Financial Services stocks in TickrTrends' coverage when sorted by discount to Forward Fair Value.

Is MSBI overbought or oversold?

MSBI's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.

All Financial Services fair-value coverage →

Head-to-head comparisons

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