Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI) fair value analysis
Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19
MSBI price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
OvervaluedMSBI is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $32.22
- Sector
- Financial Services
- 12-month range
- $14.64–$34.53
- Market cap
- $669M
- From 52-week high
- -6.7%
- Shares outstanding
- 20.8M
- Rank in Financial Services by discount to fair value
- #154 of 167
Last price is our stored weekly price from 2026-10-16, older than the 2026-10-19 run that built this page; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. is a bank holding company that provides community banking services including commercial and consumer lending, deposit products, and financial services to customers. The company operates primarily through its subsidiary banks serving communities across the Midwest and South.
MSBI currently ranks #154 of 167 Financial Services stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Overvalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $669M
- P/E (trailing)
- 14x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $443M
- Net margin
- 9.7%
- EPS (TTM)
- $2.38
- Gross margin
- 68.4%
- Debt / equity
- 0.61
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- -0.7%
- Shares outstanding
- 20.8M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- D
- Margin trend
- Expanding
- 52-week position
- The top quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 41 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $32.96
- 200-day average
- $27.65
- Moving-average state
- 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price between the averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $1.29 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 4.00%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 9
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-08-14
- Last payment date
- 2026-08-21
Earnings how computed
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 4 beat, 4 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+5.1%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+29.5%)
2025-12 ▼ miss (-29.3%)
2025-09 ▼ miss (-62.5%)
2025-06 ▼ miss (-20.0%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+9.6%)
2024-12 ▼ miss (-476.1%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+15.6%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 0 buy · 5 hold · 0 sell (5 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Hold-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $33.2
- Target vs last price
- +3.0%
What our data shows for MSBI
- Our model validated 11 trailing price-to-earnings windows for MSBI, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $14.64–$34.53.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 41.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for MSBI
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent MSBI news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for MSBI is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Midland States Bancorp, Inc. to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results on Thursday, October 22 (manilatimes.net, 2026-10-08)
TickrTrends take: Midland States Bancorp will release its third quarter 2026 results on October 22, providing detailed financial metrics that investors can use to assess whether current valuations remain justified. Given TickrTrends' current overvaluation assessment, this earnings announcement will be an important test of whether the company's operational performance and financial health support the premium at which it is currently trading. Valuation-focused investors should monitor key metrics such as net income, return on assets, and loan quality to evaluate if management can demonstrate sufficient earnings growth to warrant the existing market valuation. - Midland States Bancorp Files Universal Shelf Registration Statement (manilatimes.net, 2026-10-06)
TickrTrends take: Midland States Bancorp's filing of a universal shelf registration statement provides the company with flexibility to raise capital in the future, though the timing and structure of any potential offerings remain uncertain. Given TickrTrends' current assessment that MSBI trades at an overvalued level, investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether management uses this registration to issue new equity, which could dilute existing shareholders' stakes. For a Financial Services sector company trading above intrinsic value estimates, capital raising activity would represent another factor to weigh alongside current price levels when evaluating the risk-reward profile. - Mesabi Metals Plans $15 Billion Steel Plant Investment in Iowa (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-28)
TickrTrends take: Mesabi Metals' announced $15 billion investment in Iowa steel production represents a significant capital commitment that could materially affect the company's financial metrics and future earnings power, making it relevant to current valuation assessments. Given TickrTrends' current overvalued designation for MSBI, investors should monitor how the market prices in this major capital expenditure relative to expected returns and timeline to profitability. The scale of this infrastructure investment will be critical for determining whether current valuations accurately reflect the company's long-term competitive positioning in the steel sector.
What people are saying
Follow the MSBI conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — MSBI's 50/200-day trend state shifted from uptrend to mixed this week, indicating a potential weakening of its short-term momentum relative to the longer-term trajectory. The stock remains classified as overvalued according to current valuation metrics. This combination of deteriorating trend signals and elevated valuation suggests increased caution for investors monitoring this Financial Services sector company.
- 2026-10-05 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is MSBI stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), MSBI is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is MSBI's TickrTrends verdict?
MSBI's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does MSBI compare to other Financial Services stocks?
MSBI ranks #154 of 167 Financial Services stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is MSBI overbought or oversold?
MSBI's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does MSBI pay a dividend?
Yes. MSBI paid $1.29 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 4.00% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 9 consecutive years. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-08-14.
Does MSBI usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters MSBI beat the consensus estimate 4 times and missed 4 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about MSBI?
Of 5 analysts covering MSBI, 0 rate it a buy, 5 a hold and 0 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $33.2 (+3.0% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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