Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) fair value analysis
S&P 500 & Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19
MSFT price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedMSFT is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $535.07
- Sector
- Technology
- 12-month range
- $352.83–$543.45
- Market cap
- $3.97T
- From 52-week high
- -1.5%
- Shares outstanding
- 7.43B
- Rank in Technology by discount to fair value
- #59 of 181
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Microsoft Corporation develops and sells software, cloud computing services, gaming products, and hardware devices for consumers, businesses, and enterprises worldwide. The company operates globally through divisions including productivity software, cloud infrastructure, artificial intelligence services, professional networking, gaming platforms, and personal computing devices.
MSFT currently ranks #59 of 181 Technology stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $3.97T
- P/E (trailing)
- 30x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $332B
- Net margin
- 40.3%
- EPS (TTM)
- $17.89
- Gross margin
- 67.2%
- Debt / equity
- 0.29
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 19.8%
- Shares outstanding
- 7.43B
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- A
- Margin trend
- Stable
- 52-week position
- The top quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 60 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $505.53
- 200-day average
- $435.25
- Moving-average state
- 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price above both averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $3.64 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 0.68%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 20
- Next ex-dividend date
- 2026-11-19
- Last payment date
- 2026-09-10
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-10-28 (post-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 8 beat, 0 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+12.6%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+4.4%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+31.6%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+1.6%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+8.0%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+7.5%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+3.5%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+6.1%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 53 buy · 2 hold · 0 sell (55 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $599
- Target vs last price
- +11.9%
What our data shows for MSFT
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for MSFT, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $352.83–$543.45.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 60.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for MSFT
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent MSFT news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for MSFT is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Microsoft (MSFT) Requires Xbox Employees to Return to Office Four Days a Week Starting February 2027 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-21)
TickrTrends take: Microsoft's shift toward increased in-office presence for Xbox employees represents a operational restructuring that could affect cost management and productivity metrics going forward. Since TickrTrends currently rates MSFT as undervalued, investors monitoring this policy change should track whether such workforce measures impact the company's operating expenses and cash flow efficiency in coming quarters. The February 2027 implementation timeline means this cost structure adjustment will become relevant during the company's fiscal year 2027 results, which could influence how the market reassesses the stock's valuation relative to its fundamentals. - Microsoft (MSFT) to Launch Next-Gen Xbox Handheld in 2027 Holiday Season (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-20)
TickrTrends take: Microsoft's planned launch of a next-generation Xbox handheld device in the 2027 holiday season represents a significant product expansion in the gaming hardware market, an area where the company competes with established players. Given TickrTrends' current undervalued designation for MSFT, investors monitoring the company's Technology sector positioning should track how this new hardware initiative affects revenue diversification and operating margins in coming years. The timing of this launch and its commercial reception will be important data points for reassessing the company's growth prospects and capital allocation efficiency. - Microsoft, Alphabet, Goldman Block OKXICE Tokenized Shares (financefeeds.com, 2026-10-20)
TickrTrends take: Microsoft's involvement in blocking OKXICE tokenized shares highlights the company's cautious stance toward cryptocurrency-adjacent financial products, which reflects broader regulatory uncertainty in the technology sector. Given TickrTrends' current undervalued assessment of MSFT, investors monitoring the stock should observe how the company navigates emerging digital asset regulations, as clarity in this space could affect Microsoft's cloud and enterprise service expansion opportunities. The blocking action suggests technology leaders remain selective about which blockchain innovations they endorse, a positioning that may appeal to institutional investors concerned about regulatory risk.
More MSFT news
- Microsoft (MSFT) Withdraws from UK Data Center Partnership with Nscale (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-18)
- If AI Crumbles, Microsoft Wins (NASDAQ:MSFT) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-16)
- UK CMA Proposes Strategic Market Status for Microsoft (MSFT) in Business Software Ecosystem (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-16)
- Trump Administration Suspends Microsoft from H-1B Green Card Program, Raising Talent Acquisition Concerns (MSFT) (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-14)
- Microsoft (MSFT) Built a $100B Azure. Can It Outrun Its Own Spending? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-14)
- How CFOs at Chevron, ServiceNow and Nasdaq decide which AI bets create value (fortune.com, 2026-10-14)
- Microsoft's Azure Explores 20% Cost Cuts Amid Cloud Restructuring (MSFT) (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-14)
- Microsoft (MSFT) Targets 20% Cost Reduction in Azure Division Amid Efficiency Drive (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-13)
- Microsoft President Calls for Global AI Regulation Amid Strong Valuation and Insider Activity (MSFT) (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-12)
What people are saying
Follow the MSFT conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — # MSFT Weekly Indicator Summary TickrTrends' derived indicators for MSFT showed a shift in sector positioning this week, with the stock's sector discount rank moving from #77 to #83. Despite this change in relative valuation ranking within the Technology sector, MSFT maintains an Undervalued verdict on current valuation assessment.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is MSFT stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), MSFT is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is MSFT's TickrTrends verdict?
MSFT's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does MSFT compare to other Technology stocks?
MSFT ranks #59 of 181 Technology stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is MSFT overbought or oversold?
MSFT's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does MSFT pay a dividend?
Yes. MSFT paid $3.64 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 0.68% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 20 consecutive years. The next ex-dividend date on file is 2026-11-19.
When does MSFT report earnings next?
MSFT's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-10-28 (post-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does MSFT usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters MSFT beat the consensus estimate 8 times and missed 0 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about MSFT?
Of 55 analysts covering MSFT, 53 rate it a buy, 2 a hold and 0 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $599 (+11.9% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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