Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) fair value analysis
S&P 500 & Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19
ODFL price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedODFL is trading at a 10–25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $181.97
- Sector
- Industrials
- 12-month range
- $126.29–$248.73
- Market cap
- $37.8B
- From 52-week high
- -26.8%
- Shares outstanding
- 208M
- Rank in Industrials by discount to fair value
- #42 of 106
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. is a less-than-truckload carrier that provides regional, inter-regional, and national freight transportation services throughout the United States. The company operates a network of service centers and terminals across the country to support its trucking and logistics operations.
ODFL currently ranks #42 of 106 Industrials stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 3 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $37.8B
- P/E (trailing)
- 35x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $5.6B
- Net margin
- 19.4%
- EPS (TTM)
- $5.19
- Gross margin
- 35.0%
- Debt / equity
- 0.00
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 0.9%
- Shares outstanding
- 208M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- B
- Margin trend
- Contracting
- 52-week position
- The lower-middle quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 66 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $189.21
- 200-day average
- $200.99
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price below both averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $1.15 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 0.63%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 0 (no streak on complete calendar years)
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-09-02
- Last payment date
- 2026-09-16
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-10-28 (pre-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 7 beat, 1 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+10.5%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+8.6%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+2.8%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+4.9%)
2025-06 ▼ miss (-1.6%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+4.4%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+6.0%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+0.7%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 10 buy · 12 hold · 2 sell (24 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Hold-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $221
- Target vs last price
- +21.4%
What our data shows for ODFL
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for ODFL, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the middle of their 12-month price range of $126.29–$248.73.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 66.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for ODFL
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent ODFL news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for ODFL is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- ODFL Maintains Neutral Rating -- Price Target Lowered to $232 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-05)
TickrTrends take: An analyst's neutral rating on ODFL paired with a price target reduction suggests caution about near-term momentum, which contrasts with TickrTrends' current undervalued assessment of the transportation and logistics company. Investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether the market reprices ODFL stock toward the analyst's target or whether fundamental metrics support the undervalued designation. The disconnect between the neutral stance and TickrTrends' valuation view highlights the importance of distinguishing between sentiment-driven price targets and underlying asset valuations in the Industrials sector. - ODFL Maintained by Susquehanna -- Price Target Lowered to $202 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-02)
TickrTrends take: Susquehanna's reduction of its price target to 202 for Old Dominion Freight Line indicates analyst reassessment of near-term valuation metrics despite maintaining coverage of the Industrials sector company. TickrTrends currently classifies ODFL as undervalued, suggesting the market may not yet be pricing in the full value of the company's fundamentals. Valuation-focused readers should monitor whether the analyst's adjusted price target reflects a temporary headwind or a fundamental shift in the company's earnings power relative to its stock price. - Old Dominion (ODFL) Announces a Rate Increase. Can it Keep Customers? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-09-26)
TickrTrends take: Old Dominion's announcement of a rate increase comes at a time when TickrTrends rates the company as undervalued, suggesting the market may not be fully pricing in the company's pricing power or operational efficiency. For valuation-focused investors, the critical question becomes whether ODFL can maintain its customer base and volumes while executing higher rates, as any loss of market share would directly impact the revenue growth assumptions underlying the current undervaluation assessment. Investors should monitor upcoming earnings reports and customer retention metrics to determine if the rate increase translates into margin expansion that justifies the undervalued designation.
What people are saying
Follow the ODFL conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for ODFL have shifted this week, with the valuation verdict moving from Fairly valued to Undervalued. This change reflects a reassessment of the company's valuation metrics within the Industrials sector. The stock now appears to offer better value relative to its fundamentals compared to the previous week's assessment.
- 2026-10-10 — ODFL's technical positioning improved this week as its Relative Strength Index moved from oversold territory into neutral range, suggesting reduced downward momentum. The stock's valuation discount ranking relative to its Industrials sector peers slipped from number 41 to number 49, indicating it became less attractive on a relative basis despite maintaining an undervalued assessment.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is ODFL stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), ODFL is trading at a 10–25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is ODFL's TickrTrends verdict?
ODFL's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does ODFL compare to other Industrials stocks?
ODFL ranks #42 of 106 Industrials stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is ODFL overbought or oversold?
ODFL's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does ODFL pay a dividend?
Yes. ODFL paid $1.15 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 0.63% yield on TickrTrends' last price. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-09-02.
When does ODFL report earnings next?
ODFL's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-10-28 (pre-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does ODFL usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters ODFL beat the consensus estimate 7 times and missed 1 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about ODFL?
Of 24 analysts covering ODFL, 10 rate it a buy, 12 a hold and 2 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $221 (+21.4% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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