O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
ORLY price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedORLY is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $86.45
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- 12-month range
- $82.73–$101.70
- Market cap
- $69.9B
- From 52-week high
- -15.0%
- Shares outstanding
- 809M
- Rank in Consumer Cyclical by discount to fair value
- #24 of 85
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. is a retailer of aftermarket automotive parts, tools, and accessories that serves both professional installers and do-it-yourself customers. The company operates stores throughout the United States and Canada.
ORLY currently ranks #24 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $69.9B
- P/E (trailing)
- 28x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $18.6B
- Net margin
- 14.3%
- EPS (TTM)
- $3.14
- Gross margin
- 51.4%
- Debt / equity
- 0.00
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 5.5%
- Shares outstanding
- 809M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- B
- Margin trend
- Stable
- 52-week position
- The bottom quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 67 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $87.55
- 200-day average
- $90.67
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price below both averages
- Momentum score
- 70 · grade B
- Positive weeks (of 12)
- 3
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-10-28 (post-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 3 beat, 4 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+1.2%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+4.3%)
2025-12 ▼ miss (-1.4%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+2.4%)
2025-06 ▬ met (0.0%)
2025-03 ▼ miss (-5.6%)
2024-12 ▼ miss (-2.5%)
2024-09 ▼ miss (-1.2%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 23 buy · 6 hold · 0 sell (29 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $107
- Target vs last price
- +23.8%
What our data shows for ORLY
- Our model validated 7 trailing price-to-earnings windows for ORLY, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $82.73–$101.70.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 67.
- 3 of the last 12 weekly snapshots showed positive price momentum.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for ORLY
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent ORLY news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for ORLY is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- ORLY DCF Analysis: Intrinsic Value $80 vs Price $90 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-21)
TickrTrends take: O'Reilly Automotive trades at a premium to its calculated intrinsic value based on discounted cash flow analysis, suggesting the market has priced in expectations beyond the fundamental valuation model's output. Despite this valuation gap, TickrTrends currently classifies ORLY as undervalued, indicating that other analytical factors or longer-term growth assumptions may support the current price level for investors focused on the Consumer Cyclical sector. A valuation-focused reader should monitor whether ORLY's operational performance and cash flow generation can justify maintaining the current price level above the DCF-derived intrinsic value. - ORLY DCF Analysis: Intrinsic Value $80 vs Price $86 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-14)
TickrTrends take: O'Reilly Automotive trades at $86 while a discounted cash flow analysis suggests an intrinsic value of $80, indicating the stock is trading at a premium to this particular valuation model. TickrTrends currently classifies ORLY as undervalued despite this DCF assessment, which reflects a difference in valuation methodology or timeframe assumptions between the two approaches. Investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether the company's cash generation and growth prospects support either the DCF-derived floor or the broader undervalued designation as earnings reports emerge. - O'Reilly Automotive: High-Quality Compounder At A Reasonable Valuation (NASDAQ:ORLY) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-12)
TickrTrends take: O'Reilly Automotive operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, where valuation multiples can fluctuate significantly with economic cycles and consumer spending patterns. TickrTrends currently derives an Undervalued verdict for ORLY, suggesting the market may not be fully pricing in the company's quality as a compounder relative to its current valuation levels. Investors focused on valuation should monitor whether the stock's multiple expands as the market recognizes the combination of business quality and reasonable entry price.
More ORLY news
- O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) Sets Date for Q3 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-02)
- ORLY Fairly Valued by DCF at $80 (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-30)
What people are saying
Follow the ORLY conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — TickrTrends' momentum indicator for ORLY upgraded from none to B this week. With this change and the current undervalued valuation verdict, the derived indicators suggest a shift toward more positive technical positioning for the consumer cyclical stock.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is ORLY stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), ORLY is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is ORLY's TickrTrends verdict?
ORLY's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does ORLY compare to other Consumer Cyclical stocks?
ORLY ranks #24 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is ORLY overbought or oversold?
ORLY's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
When does ORLY report earnings next?
ORLY's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-10-28 (post-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does ORLY usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters ORLY beat the consensus estimate 3 times and missed 4 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about ORLY?
Of 29 analysts covering ORLY, 23 rate it a buy, 6 a hold and 0 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $107 (+23.8% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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