PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
PHM price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
OvervaluedPHM is trading at a 10–25% premium to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $112.12
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- 12-month range
- $109.35–$142.56
- Market cap
- $21.4B
- From 52-week high
- -21.4%
- Shares outstanding
- 190M
- Rank in Consumer Cyclical by discount to fair value
- #61 of 85
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
PulteGroup, Inc. is a homebuilder that designs, builds, and sells residential homes across the United States. The company operates through multiple brands and maintains operations in numerous markets throughout the country.
PHM currently ranks #61 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Overvalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $21.4B
- P/E (trailing)
- 11x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $16.4B
- Net margin
- 11.6%
- EPS (TTM)
- $10.11
- Gross margin
- 20.7%
- Debt / equity
- 0.18
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- -0.2%
- Shares outstanding
- 190M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- D
- Margin trend
- Contracting
- 52-week position
- The bottom quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 45 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $121.42
- 200-day average
- $124.31
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price below both averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $1.04 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 0.93%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 8
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-09-15
- Last payment date
- 2026-10-02
Earnings how computed
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 7 beat, 1 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+4.2%)
2026-03 ▼ miss (-1.1%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+2.5%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+2.4%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+2.0%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+6.2%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+35.5%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+5.3%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 10 buy · 5 hold · 1 sell (16 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $135
- Target vs last price
- +20.4%
What our data shows for PHM
- Our model validated 13 trailing price-to-earnings windows for PHM, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $109.35–$142.56.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 45.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for PHM
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent PHM news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for PHM is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- PulteGroup, Inc. 2026 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NYSE:PHM) 2026-10-23 (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-23)
TickrTrends take: PulteGroup operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, which is sensitive to economic conditions and interest rate environments that directly affect homebuilding demand and mortgage affordability. According to TickrTrends' current analysis, PHM is trading at an overvalued level, suggesting the stock price may not align with its fundamental metrics. Investors focused on valuation should monitor whether the company's third quarter results demonstrate earnings growth sufficient to justify current pricing, particularly given the cyclical nature of housing market conditions. - PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-22)
TickrTrends take: # PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) - Valuation Context PulteGroup reported Q3 2026 results at a time when TickrTrends' analysis indicates the stock trades at overvalued levels for a Consumer Cyclical company. Investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether management commentary on housing demand, pricing power, and cost structures provides justification for the current market valuation or suggests further compression may be warranted. The homebuilder's performance in a potentially shifting interest rate environment will be particularly relevant given the sector's sensitivity to financing conditions and consumer purchasing capacity. - PulteGroup Inc (PHM) Shares Surge 3.3% -- What GF Score of 94 Tells Investors (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-20)
TickrTrends take: PulteGroup's recent share movement occurs within a context where TickrTrends currently rates the stock as overvalued, suggesting that near-term price appreciation may not align with underlying fundamentals. The high GF Score referenced in the headline indicates strong operational quality metrics, but this quality assessment does not necessarily resolve the valuation gap that prompted the overvalued designation. Investors focused on valuation should monitor whether the homebuilder's Consumer Cyclical sector exposure and earnings trajectory can justify current pricing levels, or whether mean reversion pressures may emerge.
More PHM news
- PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) is Attracting Investor Attention: Here is What You Should Know (zacks.com, 2026-10-16)
- PHM Maintained by Barclays -- Price Target Lowered to $110 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-06)
- PulteGroup: Well Managed In The Face Of Macro Pressure (NYSE:PHM) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-01)
- PHM Initiated Coverage On by Morgan Stanley -- Price Target Announced at $128 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-01)
What people are saying
Follow the PHM conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for PHM showed improvement this week, with the quality grade rising from F to D. Despite this upgrade in the quality assessment, the current valuation verdict remains Overvalued.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is PHM stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), PHM is trading at a 10–25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is PHM's TickrTrends verdict?
PHM's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does PHM compare to other Consumer Cyclical stocks?
PHM ranks #61 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is PHM overbought or oversold?
PHM's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does PHM pay a dividend?
Yes. PHM paid $1.04 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 0.93% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 8 consecutive years. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-09-15.
Does PHM usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters PHM beat the consensus estimate 7 times and missed 1 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about PHM?
Of 16 analysts covering PHM, 10 rate it a buy, 5 a hold and 1 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $135 (+20.4% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
More in Consumer Cyclical
Head-to-head comparisons
PHM vs CASY · PHM vs DHI · PHM vs LEGH · PHM vs LQDT · PHM vs MAR