Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
PKG price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
Fairly valuedPKG is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $230.51
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- 12-month range
- $191.68–$257.43
- Market cap
- $20.5B
- From 52-week high
- -10.5%
- Shares outstanding
- 89.1M
- Rank in Consumer Cyclical by discount to fair value
- #41 of 85
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Packaging Corporation of America is a manufacturer and producer of containerboard, corrugated packaging products, and uncoated free sheet paper used by various industries. The company operates manufacturing facilities and distribution networks across North America, serving customers in sectors including food, beverage, e-commerce, and industrial goods.
PKG currently ranks #41 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Fairly valued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $20.5B
- P/E (trailing)
- 24x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $9.53B
- Net margin
- 7.2%
- EPS (TTM)
- $9.80
- Gross margin
- 20.6%
- Debt / equity
- 0.94
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 9.5%
- Shares outstanding
- 89.1M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- C
- Margin trend
- Contracting
- 52-week position
- The upper-middle quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 54 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $238.67
- 200-day average
- $227.70
- Moving-average state
- 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price between the averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $5.50 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 2.39%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 0 (no streak on complete calendar years)
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-09-15
- Last payment date
- 2026-10-15
Earnings how computed
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 5 beat, 3 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+1.7%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+12.7%)
2025-12 ▼ miss (-3.7%)
2025-09 ▼ miss (-3.2%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+1.6%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+4.5%)
2024-12 ▼ miss (-2.4%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+6.0%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 7 buy · 3 hold · 1 sell (11 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $261
- Target vs last price
- +13.2%
What our data shows for PKG
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for PKG, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the middle of their 12-month price range of $191.68–$257.43.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 54.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for PKG
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent PKG news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for PKG is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Packaging Corporation of America: A Good Company Isn't Always A Good Stock (NYSE:PKG) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-22)
TickrTrends take: Packaging Corporation of America trades at a valuation that TickrTrends currently assesses as fairly valued, meaning the market price appears appropriately calibrated to the company's fundamentals. The headline's distinction between company quality and stock attractiveness is particularly relevant for valuation-focused investors, as a well-managed business in the Consumer Cyclical sector can still trade at levels that offer limited margin of safety. Given PKG's fair valuation status, investors should monitor whether the company's earnings trajectory accelerates or whether macroeconomic headwinds in cyclical demand alter the risk-reward profile. - Packaging Corp. (PKG): Can Better Box Profits Justify Its Premium? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-12)
TickrTrends take: Packaging Corp trades at a valuation that TickrTrends currently assesses as fairly valued, suggesting the market has already priced in reasonable expectations for the business. Given that the company operates in the cyclical Consumer Cyclical sector, investors focused on valuation should monitor whether management can sustain margin improvements in its box business or if economic headwinds compress profitability. Since the fair valuation reflects current profit expectations, any meaningful changes to earnings power would be the primary driver that could shift the valuation assessment in either direction. - Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Presents at Jefferies Global Industrials Conference 2026 - Slideshow (NYSE:PKG) 2026-09-12 (seekingalpha.com, 2026-09-12)
TickrTrends take: Packaging Corporation of America's presentation at the Jefferies Global Industrials Conference provides investors with an opportunity to assess whether the company's current operational outlook supports its Fairly valued designation within the Consumer Cyclical sector. Given PKG's exposure to cyclical demand patterns, attendees should monitor management commentary on order book trends, pricing dynamics, and cost pressures to evaluate whether the fair value assessment remains appropriate. The company's ability to maintain margins amid economic uncertainty will be particularly relevant for determining if current valuation levels adequately reflect near-term business conditions.
More PKG news
- Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Presents at Jefferies Global Industrials Conference 2026 Transcript (seekingalpha.com, 2026-09-10)
What people are saying
Follow the PKG conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is PKG stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), PKG is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value and screens as fairly valued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is PKG's TickrTrends verdict?
PKG's current verdict is Fairly valued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does PKG compare to other Consumer Cyclical stocks?
PKG ranks #41 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is PKG overbought or oversold?
PKG's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does PKG pay a dividend?
Yes. PKG paid $5.50 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 2.39% yield on TickrTrends' last price. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-09-15.
Does PKG usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters PKG beat the consensus estimate 5 times and missed 3 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about PKG?
Of 11 analysts covering PKG, 7 rate it a buy, 3 a hold and 1 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $261 (+13.2% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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