Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
RCL price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedRCL is trading at a 10–25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $282.26
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- 12-month range
- $230.30–$348.03
- Market cap
- $75.5B
- From 52-week high
- -18.9%
- Shares outstanding
- 267M
- Rank in Consumer Cyclical by discount to fair value
- #32 of 85
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. is a cruise line operator that designs, builds, and operates cruise ships that carry passengers on voyages to various destinations around the world. The company operates cruise brands serving customers across North America, Europe, Asia, and other international markets.
RCL currently ranks #32 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $75.5B
- P/E (trailing)
- 17x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $18.7B
- Net margin
- 23.6%
- EPS (TTM)
- $16.36
- Gross margin
- 47.3%
- Debt / equity
- 2.30
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 5.4%
- Shares outstanding
- 267M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- F
- Margin trend
- Contracting
- 52-week position
- The lower-middle quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 60 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $274.52
- 200-day average
- $286.51
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price between the averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $5.50 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 1.95%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 1
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-09-17
- Last payment date
- 2026-10-08
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-10-27 (pre-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 7 beat, 0 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+6.0%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+12.5%)
2025-12 ▬ met (0.0%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+1.2%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+7.4%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+7.0%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+8.7%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+3.4%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 22 buy · 7 hold · 0 sell (29 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $351
- Target vs last price
- +24.4%
What our data shows for RCL
- Our model validated 12 trailing price-to-earnings windows for RCL, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the middle of their 12-month price range of $230.30–$348.03.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 60.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for RCL
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent RCL news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for RCL is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- William Blair Sees Royal Caribbean (RCL) Surpassing Q3 Earnings Guidance Despite Fuel Cost Headwinds (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-20)
TickrTrends take: Royal Caribbean's potential to exceed third-quarter earnings expectations despite rising fuel costs suggests operational efficiency that may not be fully reflected in its current undervalued status according to TickrTrends. For valuation-focused investors in the Consumer Cyclical sector, the company's ability to manage cost pressures while delivering upside earnings could indicate margin resilience that supports a re-rating of the stock. Monitoring whether this earnings performance translates into sustained pricing power and cost management will be critical to validating the undervalued assessment. - Royal Caribbean passenger rescued after nearly 20 hours at sea reveals why she intentionally jumped from ship in Greece (economictimes.indiatimes.com, 2026-10-17)
TickrTrends take: Royal Caribbean faces potential operational and reputational risks from passenger safety incidents that could impact customer confidence and future bookings, particularly relevant given the company operates in the cyclical consumer discretionary sector where sentiment shifts rapidly. A valuation-focused reader should monitor whether this incident affects forward booking trends and load factors, as these metrics directly influence revenue per available cabin night and are critical to reassessing RCL's undervalued status. The near-term impact on brand perception in key markets warrants tracking against management guidance and comparable cruise operator performance. - ETFs Are Net Sellers of Royal Caribbean (RCL) on Oct. 14 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-16)
TickrTrends take: Royal Caribbean faces net selling pressure from ETFs, which can create short-term headwinds for the stock even as it trades at levels TickrTrends considers undervalued. For investors focused on valuation metrics, ETF selling activity may represent a disconnection between technical flows and fundamental value, potentially offering opportunities if the underlying business remains sound. Monitoring whether this selling pressure persists or reverses will be important context for evaluating whether the current undervalued assessment holds as market conditions shift.
More RCL news
- ETF Activity: SPY Leads with $7.64 Billion Inflow on Wednesday (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-16)
- RCL Maintained by Wells Fargo -- Price Target Lowered to $358 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-12)
- ROYAL CARIBBEAN GROUP TO HOLD CONFERENCE CALL ON THIRD QUARTER 2026 EARNINGS (manilatimes.net, 2026-10-08)
- Royal Caribbean Group: Has the Market Already Priced in the Cruise Recovery? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-08)
What people are saying
Follow the RCL conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — RCL's technical positioning improved this week as its Relative Strength Index moved from oversold into neutral territory, suggesting reduced downward momentum. The stock's sector discount ranking declined from 23rd to 35th place among Consumer Cyclical companies, indicating a reduced valuation advantage relative to peers. At current levels, RCL carries an undervalued assessment.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is RCL stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), RCL is trading at a 10–25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is RCL's TickrTrends verdict?
RCL's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does RCL compare to other Consumer Cyclical stocks?
RCL ranks #32 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is RCL overbought or oversold?
RCL's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does RCL pay a dividend?
Yes. RCL paid $5.50 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 1.95% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 1 consecutive year. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-09-17.
When does RCL report earnings next?
RCL's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-10-27 (pre-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does RCL usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters RCL beat the consensus estimate 7 times and missed 0 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about RCL?
Of 29 analysts covering RCL, 22 rate it a buy, 7 a hold and 0 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $351 (+24.4% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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