Shopify Inc. (SHOP) fair value analysis
Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19
SHOP price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
OvervaluedSHOP is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $169.52
- Sector
- Technology
- 12-month range
- $95.40–$179.22
- Market cap
- $207B
- From 52-week high
- -5.4%
- Shares outstanding
- 1.22B
- Rank in Technology by discount to fair value
- #178 of 181
Last price is our stored weekly price from 2026-10-16, older than the 2026-10-19 run that built this page; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Shopify Inc. is a Canadian e-commerce platform that provides software and services to help merchants build and operate online stores. The company serves customers across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and other regions globally.
SHOP currently ranks #178 of 181 Technology stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Overvalued for 11 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $207B
- P/E (trailing)
- 113x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $13.3B
- Net margin
- 14.5%
- EPS (TTM)
- $1.50
- Gross margin
- 47.7%
- Debt / equity
- 0.01
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 36.3%
- Shares outstanding
- 1.22B
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- A
- Margin trend
- Contracting
- 52-week position
- The top quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 68 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $149.35
- 200-day average
- $129.70
- Moving-average state
- 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price above both averages
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-11-03 (pre-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 5 beat, 2 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+14.3%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+9.1%)
2025-12 ▼ miss (-5.9%)
2025-09 ▬ met (0.0%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+21.3%)
2025-03 ▼ miss (-3.8%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+2.3%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+255.6%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 42 buy · 11 hold · 1 sell (54 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $176
- Target vs last price
- +3.8%
What our data shows for SHOP
- Our model validated 8 trailing price-to-earnings windows for SHOP, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $95.40–$179.22.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 68.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for SHOP
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent SHOP news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for SHOP is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- SHOP Maintained by RBC Capital -- Price Target Raised to $200 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-16)
TickrTrends take: RBC Capital's decision to raise the price target to $200 while maintaining its rating suggests analyst confidence in Shopify's fundamentals, though this update arrives within a context where TickrTrends currently assesses the stock as overvalued. For investors focused on valuation metrics, this analyst action may warrant examination of whether the new price target reflects assumptions that differ from the current market pricing, or whether it reinforces existing valuation concerns in the Technology sector. The maintenance of the rating despite the target increase could indicate the analyst views current valuations as already pricing in substantial growth expectations. - Shopify Inc (SHOP) Stock Up 3.3% but GF Value Says Overvalued -- GF Score: 84/100 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-15)
TickrTrends take: Shopify's recent 3% stock price increase occurs within a context where TickrTrends' valuation analysis indicates the stock is trading above its estimated fair value. Despite the company's strong GF Score of 84 out of 100, which reflects operational quality and financial metrics, the overvalued assessment suggests that current market pricing may not offer an attractive entry point for value-conscious investors. Valuation-focused investors should monitor whether the stock price pulls back closer to intrinsic value estimates or whether company fundamentals strengthen enough to justify the current premium in the Technology sector. - Shopify: Wait For The Next Golden Buying Opportunity (Downgrade) (NASDAQ:SHOP) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-14)
TickrTrends take: Shopify trades at a valuation that TickrTrends currently assesses as overvalued, which aligns with the downgrade reflected in recent analyst commentary suggesting caution on entry points. For investors focused on valuation metrics, this positioning indicates that current price levels may not offer an attractive risk-reward setup compared to the company's fundamentals in the Technology sector. A valuation-conscious approach would involve monitoring for potential pullbacks that could present more favorable entry conditions relative to the company's earnings power and growth trajectory.
More SHOP news
- SHOP Maintained by Baird -- Price Target Raised to $190 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-14)
- Shopify Inc. (SHOP) is Attracting Investor Attention: Here is What You Should Know (zacks.com, 2026-10-06)
- Shopify (SHOP) Set to Benefit from Growth in Smart Agent Shopping (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-29)
- Is Shopify (SHOP)’s AI Opportunity Bigger Than it Looks? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-09-28)
What people are saying
Follow the SHOP conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for SHOP showed a shift this week as the Relative Strength Index moved from overbought territory into the neutral zone. The stock remains classified as overvalued based on current valuation metrics within the Technology sector. This change in momentum indicators suggests a moderation in the intensity of recent buying pressure.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for SHOP have shifted this week, with the RSI zone moving from neutral to overbought territory. The sector discount rank has declined from 157 to 171, indicating a weaker valuation position relative to other Technology sector companies. The stock currently carries an overvalued assessment according to the platform's valuation metrics.
- 2026-10-05 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for SHOP show movement in the sector discount rank, which improved from position 159 to position 152 compared to the prior week, indicating the stock has become relatively less expensive within the Technology sector. Despite this improvement in valuation metrics, the current valuation verdict remains Overvalued.
- 2026-09-21 — # SHOP Weekly Indicator Summary TickrTrends' derived indicators for SHOP showed a decline in relative valuation positioning this week. The sector discount rank moved from 154th to 159th place, indicating SHOP became less discounted relative to other Technology sector companies. With a current valuation verdict of Overvalued, the stock's competitive pricing position within its sector has weakened.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is SHOP stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), SHOP is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is SHOP's TickrTrends verdict?
SHOP's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does SHOP compare to other Technology stocks?
SHOP ranks #178 of 181 Technology stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is SHOP overbought or oversold?
SHOP's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
When does SHOP report earnings next?
SHOP's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-11-03 (pre-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does SHOP usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters SHOP beat the consensus estimate 5 times and missed 2 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about SHOP?
Of 54 analysts covering SHOP, 42 rate it a buy, 11 a hold and 1 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $176 (+3.8% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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