TriCo Bancshares (TCBK) fair value analysis

Nasdaq · Updated 2026-09-07

TriCo Bancshares is a bank holding company that provides commercial banking services to small and medium-sized businesses, as well as personal banking services to individuals. The company operates through its subsidiary banks primarily in Northern California.

Forward Fair Value verdict

Overvalued

Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model, TCBK is trading at a 10–25% premium to estimated fair value.

TCBK currently ranks #119 of 165 Financial Services stocks by discount to Forward Fair Value. It has screened as Overvalued for 3 consecutive weekly runs.

Last price: $58.04
Sector: Financial Services
12-month range: $42.69–$58.04

Derived indicators

Coarse bands from TickrTrends' weekly models; exact figures are part of the full report.

Quality grade: C-
Leverage: Low
RSI zone: Neutral
50/200-day trend: Uptrend
52-week position: The top quarter of its range

What our data shows for TCBK

Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for TCBK, built from quarterly earnings records.
Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $42.69–$58.04.
The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 37.

The exact numbers are one step away

The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for TCBK
Exact discount / premium to today's price
The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes

See the exact fair value →

How Forward Fair Value works

TickrTrends computes a Forward Fair Value for every covered stock each week: a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple is applied to the analyst-consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year. Every input window is validated for continuity and every result is screened for plausibility before publication.

Recent TCBK news

TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for TCBK is currently mixed, computed from recent coverage.

First Hawaiian, Inc. (FHB) TriCo Bancshares - M&A Call - Slideshow (NASDAQ:FHB) 2026-07-14 (seekingalpha.com, 2026-07-14)
TickrTrends take: TickrTrends currently assesses TCBK as overvalued within the Financial Services sector. Given the reported M&A activity involving First Hawaiian, Inc., investors focused on valuation should monitor whether any potential consolidation in the banking industry could affect TCBK's competitive positioning and earnings multiples. Changes to the competitive landscape through acquisitions may warrant reassessment of TCBK's current valuation premium.
First Hawaiian strikes $2B deal to return to US mainland (americanbanker.com, 2026-07-13)
TickrTrends take: First Hawaiian Bank's 2 billion dollar acquisition deal represents significant strategic repositioning that could materially affect the company's financial metrics and valuation multiple. Given TickrTrends' current assessment that TCBK trades at overvalued levels, investors should monitor how this mainland expansion impacts the company's earnings trajectory and whether anticipated synergies justify the current valuation premium relative to Financial Services sector peers. The deal's execution and integration outcomes will be critical data points for reassessing whether the overvaluation thesis remains valid or shifts based on actual accretion to earnings.
Futures Slide, Oil Surges As Iran War Returns, Chip Stocks Tumble As Korea, SK Hynix Crash (zerohedge.com, 2026-07-13)
TickrTrends take: TCBK operates in the Financial Services sector at a valuation that TickrTrends currently assesses as overvalued. Market turbulence driven by geopolitical tensions and sector-specific weakness, such as the decline in chip stocks mentioned in today's news, can create reassessment pressures on valuations across financial services firms that may have pricing built on stable market conditions. Given this overvaluation context, investors monitoring TCBK should observe whether financial sector volatility and risk-off sentiment translate into margin pressure or reduced trading volumes that could affect the company's earnings relative to its current valuation.

What people are saying

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TickrTrends weekly updates

2026-09-07 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-09-06 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for TCBK show movement this week as the RSI zone shifted from oversold to neutral territory. The stock maintains an overvalued valuation verdict based on current metrics. This change suggests reduced downward momentum compared to the prior week's oversold conditions.
2026-08-31 — TickrTrends initiated weekly Forward Fair Value coverage of this stock.

Frequently asked questions

Is TCBK stock undervalued?

Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-09-07), TCBK is trading at a 10–25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.

What is TCBK's TickrTrends verdict?

TCBK's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.

How does TCBK compare to other Financial Services stocks?

TCBK ranks #119 of 165 Financial Services stocks in TickrTrends' coverage when sorted by discount to Forward Fair Value.

Is TCBK overbought or oversold?

TCBK's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.

All Financial Services fair-value coverage →

Head-to-head comparisons

TCBK vs AFL · TCBK vs BEN · TCBK vs BOKF · TCBK vs FBNC · TCBK vs FFBC