United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
UPS price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedUPS is trading at a 10–25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $94.57
- Sector
- Industrials
- 12-month range
- $87.22–$120.00
- Market cap
- $82.9B
- From 52-week high
- -21.2%
- Shares outstanding
- 877M
- Rank in Industrials by discount to fair value
- #28 of 106
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
United Parcel Service, Inc. is a package delivery and logistics company that provides shipping, freight, and supply chain management services to customers worldwide. The company operates an extensive network of distribution centers, delivery vehicles, and sorting facilities across North America, Europe, Asia, and other regions globally.
UPS currently ranks #28 of 106 Industrials stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $82.9B
- P/E (trailing)
- 14x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $89.9B
- Net margin
- 5.1%
- EPS (TTM)
- $6.95
- Gross margin
- 13.3%
- Debt / equity
- 1.90
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 2.9%
- Shares outstanding
- 877M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- F
- Margin trend
- Contracting
- 52-week position
- The bottom quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 48 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $99.43
- 200-day average
- $104.71
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price below both averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $6.56 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 6.94%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 16
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-08-17
- Last payment date
- 2026-09-03
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-10-27 (pre-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 7 beat, 1 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+6.7%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+4.9%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+8.2%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+33.8%)
2025-06 ▼ miss (-1.3%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+8.0%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+8.7%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+8.6%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 14 buy · 12 hold · 3 sell (29 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Hold-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $114
- Target vs last price
- +20.5%
What our data shows for UPS
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for UPS, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $87.22–$120.00.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 48.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for UPS
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent UPS news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for UPS is currently mixed, computed from recent coverage.
- UPS Maintained by Bernstein -- Price Target Lowered to $127 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-21)
TickrTrends take: Bernstein's reduction of UPS's price target to $127 occurs within a context where TickrTrends currently derives an undervalued verdict for the company. For investors focused on valuation metrics, this analyst action represents a calibration that may narrow the gap between market perception and the stock's assessed intrinsic value in the Industrials sector. The maintained rating combined with the lowered target suggests the analyst sees sustained business fundamentals while adjusting expectations for near-term price appreciation. - United Parcel Service (UPS) Charges More Per Package, but Is the Dividend Safe? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-21)
TickrTrends take: United Parcel Service operates in the Industrials sector and currently trades at a valuation that TickrTrends considers undervalued. Given the company's pricing actions on per-package charges, investors monitoring the undervaluation thesis should track whether margin expansion from higher rates translates into sustainable earnings growth that can support the dividend without straining cash flow. The safety of UPS's dividend payment depends on how effectively the company converts its pricing power into bottom-line results amid potential demand sensitivity to rate increases. - UPS: The Dividend Parcel Could Arrive Broken (Sell) (NYSE:UPS) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-16)
TickrTrends take: UPS is currently assessed as undervalued by TickrTrends despite recent concerns about its dividend sustainability, suggesting that market pricing may not fully reflect the company's underlying asset value or earnings power in the Industrials sector. A valuation-focused reader should monitor whether dividend-related challenges translate into material changes to the company's cash flow generation or cost structure, as these factors would be critical to validating or revising the undervalued assessment. The disconnect between valuation metrics and dividend concerns presents a key area for investors to evaluate as UPS reports future financial results.
More UPS news
- Is Most-Watched Stock United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) Worth Betting on Now? (zacks.com, 2026-10-15)
- FedEx (FDX) vs UPS (UPS): Which is a Better Stock to Buy? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-04)
- Flydubai incident renews debate over mandatory cockpit video recorders (business-standard.com, 2026-10-01)
- UPS Launches UPS Secure Commerce to Enhance Shipping Risk Management (Ticker: UPS) (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-30)
What people are saying
Follow the UPS conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is UPS stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), UPS is trading at a 10–25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is UPS's TickrTrends verdict?
UPS's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does UPS compare to other Industrials stocks?
UPS ranks #28 of 106 Industrials stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is UPS overbought or oversold?
UPS's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does UPS pay a dividend?
Yes. UPS paid $6.56 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 6.94% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 16 consecutive years. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-08-17.
When does UPS report earnings next?
UPS's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-10-27 (pre-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does UPS usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters UPS beat the consensus estimate 7 times and missed 1 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about UPS?
Of 29 analysts covering UPS, 14 rate it a buy, 12 a hold and 3 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $114 (+20.5% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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