Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) fair value analysis

S&P 500 · Updated 2026-09-07

Valero Energy Corporation is a petroleum refining and ethanol production company that operates one of the largest independent refining networks in North America. The company owns and operates refineries in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, along with associated logistics and marketing operations.

Forward Fair Value verdict

Fairly valued

Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model, VLO is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value.

VLO currently ranks #7 of 25 Energy stocks by discount to Forward Fair Value. It has screened as Fairly valued for 3 consecutive weekly runs.

Last price: $370.72
Sector: Energy
12-month range: $165.31–$361.99

Derived indicators

Coarse bands from TickrTrends' weekly models; exact figures are part of the full report.

Quality grade: F
Leverage: Low
Margin trend: Contracting
Revenue growth: Declining
RSI zone: Overbought
52-week position: The top quarter of its range
DCF cross-check: Overvalued

What our data shows for VLO

Our model validated 12 trailing price-to-earnings windows for VLO, built from quarterly earnings records.
Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $165.31–$361.99.
The 14-day relative strength index sits at an overbought 81.

The exact numbers are one step away

The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for VLO
Exact discount / premium to today's price
The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes

See the exact fair value →

How Forward Fair Value works

TickrTrends computes a Forward Fair Value for every covered stock each week: a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple is applied to the analyst-consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year. Every input window is validated for continuity and every result is screened for plausibility before publication.

Recent VLO news

TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for VLO is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.

Wells Fargo Just Raised its Bets on These 2 Refining Giants (insidermonkey.com, 2026-09-07)
TickrTrends take: Wells Fargo's increased confidence in refining companies reflects analyst optimism about the sector, though VLO's current fairly valued status suggests the market has already priced in much of this positive sentiment. For valuation-focused investors, the key consideration is whether refining fundamentals will strengthen enough to justify trading at a premium to current levels, or whether fairly valued positioning already reflects realistic expectations. Monitoring downstream crack spreads and global refining capacity utilization will be important to assess whether VLO can deliver returns beyond what its current valuation implies.
Valero Energy: Diesel Scarcity Lifted Q2, But The Rally Leaves Little Room For Error (NYSE:VLO) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-09-05)
TickrTrends take: Valero Energy's Q2 performance benefited from favorable diesel supply conditions, which improved margins during that quarter. Given TickrTrends' fairly valued assessment, investors should monitor whether the company can sustain profitability gains as market conditions normalize, since the current valuation leaves limited cushion for margin compression if diesel supply tightens again or refining spreads narrow. The Energy sector's cyclicality means VLO's ability to manage through less favorable operating environments will be important to watch relative to its current valuation level.
Valero Energy: The Peak Is Near, Its Time To Take Profits (Downgrade) (NYSE:VLO) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-09-04)
TickrTrends take: Valero Energy is currently assessed as fairly valued by TickrTrends despite the recent analyst downgrade suggesting profit-taking may be warranted. For valuation-focused investors, this divergence between the downgrade's bearish timing call and the fair value assessment indicates the market price may already reflect near-term cyclical concerns in the energy sector. Monitoring whether VLO's valuation metrics compress further or stabilize will be important to determine if the fairly valued verdict shifts in response to industry peak cycle dynamics.

What people are saying

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TickrTrends weekly updates

2026-09-07 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-09-06 — VLO's valuation assessment shifted this week as TickrTrends' DCF cross-check band moved from undervalued to overvalued territory, while the stock's momentum indicator changed from A-rated to none. Despite these technical shifts in the derived indicators, VLO remains positioned at a fairly valued level according to the overall valuation verdict.
2026-08-31 — TickrTrends initiated weekly Forward Fair Value coverage of this stock.

Frequently asked questions

Is VLO stock undervalued?

Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-09-07), VLO is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value and screens as fairly valued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.

What is VLO's TickrTrends verdict?

VLO's current verdict is Fairly valued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.

How does VLO compare to other Energy stocks?

VLO ranks #7 of 25 Energy stocks in TickrTrends' coverage when sorted by discount to Forward Fair Value.

Is VLO overbought or oversold?

VLO's 14-day RSI is in the overbought zone on TickrTrends' latest weekly data.

All Energy fair-value coverage →

Head-to-head comparisons

VLO vs BKR · VLO vs COP · VLO vs EOG · VLO vs EQT · VLO vs EXE