Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
VLO price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
Fairly valuedVLO is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $433.75
- Sector
- Energy
- 12-month range
- $161.94–$459.78
- Market cap
- $125B
- From 52-week high
- -5.7%
- Shares outstanding
- 288M
- Rank in Energy by discount to fair value
- #5 of 24
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Valero Energy Corporation is a petroleum refining and ethanol production company that operates one of the largest independent refining networks in North America. The company owns and operates refineries in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, along with associated logistics and marketing operations.
VLO currently ranks #5 of 24 Energy stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Fairly valued for 4 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $125B
- P/E (trailing)
- 18x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $133B
- Net margin
- 5.4%
- EPS (TTM)
- $24.24
- Gross margin
- 19.5%
- Debt / equity
- 0.45
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- -1.5%
- Shares outstanding
- 288M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- F
- Margin trend
- Expanding
- 52-week position
- The top quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 59 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $381.63
- 200-day average
- $274.01
- Moving-average state
- 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price above both averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $4.73 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 1.09%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 3
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-07-31
- Last payment date
- 2026-08-31
Earnings how computed
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 8 beat, 0 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+27.1%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+33.5%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+16.8%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+20.0%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+28.8%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+117.1%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+966.7%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+16.3%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 9 buy · 9 hold · 2 sell (20 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Hold-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $407
- Target vs last price
- -6.2%
What our data shows for VLO
- Our model validated 12 trailing price-to-earnings windows for VLO, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $161.94–$459.78.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 59.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for VLO
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent VLO news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for VLO is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Valero Energy (VLO) Prepares to Report Q3 Earnings Amid Elevated Valuation Concerns (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-21)
TickrTrends take: Valero Energy operates in the Energy sector and is currently assessed as fairly valued according to TickrTrends metrics, which provides a baseline context for interpreting the company's upcoming Q3 earnings report. The elevated valuation concerns highlighted in the headline suggest that market participants may be pricing in expectations that warrant scrutiny against actual operational results and cash generation in the quarter. Investors focused on valuation should monitor whether Q3 results and forward guidance support the current fair value assessment or indicate a shift in the risk-reward positioning. - Energy Sector Surge Boosts Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Amidst Valuation Concerns (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-12)
TickrTrends take: The energy sector's recent momentum, as evidenced by activity in comparable refiners like Marathon Petroleum, provides context for evaluating Valero Energy's current fair valuation assessment. TickrTrends' fairly valued rating for VLO suggests the market has already priced in sector strength, leaving limited margin for upside surprise unless underlying refining fundamentals improve beyond current expectations. Investors focused on valuation should monitor whether energy sector gains continue to support VLO's current price levels or whether the recent surge represents a temporary rally that could test the fairness of current valuations. - Valero Stock's Exceptional, Unwarranted Profitability Comes To An End (NYSE:VLO) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-08)
TickrTrends take: Valero Energy's recent profitability cycle appears to be moderating based on this headline, which contrasts with TickrTrends' current undervalued assessment of the stock. Investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether the company's earnings decline aligns with normalization of refining margins in the Energy sector, as this could either validate or challenge the current undervalued rating. The divergence between exceptional historical profitability and forward expectations will be critical for determining if VLO's current valuation accurately reflects its normalized earning power.
More VLO news
- Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) Hits Fresh High: Is There Still Room to Run? (zacks.com, 2026-10-06)
What people are saying
Follow the VLO conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — VLO's valuation assessment shifted this week as TickrTrends' derived indicators moved in divergent directions. The DCF cross-check band moved from fairly valued to overvalued, while the quality grade declined from D to F, reflecting deteriorating fundamental metrics. Despite these negative shifts in indicator positioning, the current valuation verdict remains undervalued.
- 2026-10-06 — # VLO Weekly Indicator Summary TickrTrends' derived indicators for VLO showed a significant shift this week, with the valuation verdict moving from Fairly valued to Undervalued. This change suggests that the stock's current price has declined relative to its fundamental metrics or that analyst expectations have adjusted downward. The shift to an undervalued designation in the energy sector may reflect recent market movements or revised assessments of the company's financial position.
- 2026-09-28 — VLO's RSI zone moved from overbought to neutral this week, indicating a shift in momentum dynamics for the energy sector stock. The current valuation verdict remains fairly valued based on TickrTrends' derived indicators.
- 2026-09-21 — VLO's valuation assessment improved this week, moving from overvalued to fairly valued according to TickrTrends' derived indicators. This shift suggests the energy sector stock has become more reasonably priced relative to its fundamentals. The company remains positioned within the energy sector with its current valuation now aligned with fair value metrics.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is VLO stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), VLO is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value and screens as fairly valued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is VLO's TickrTrends verdict?
VLO's current verdict is Fairly valued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does VLO compare to other Energy stocks?
VLO ranks #5 of 24 Energy stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is VLO overbought or oversold?
VLO's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does VLO pay a dividend?
Yes. VLO paid $4.73 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 1.09% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 3 consecutive years. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-07-31.
Does VLO usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters VLO beat the consensus estimate 8 times and missed 0 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about VLO?
Of 20 analysts covering VLO, 9 rate it a buy, 9 a hold and 2 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $407 (-6.2% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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