Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) fair value analysis

S&P 500 · Updated 2026-09-07

Exxon Mobil Corporation is an integrated energy company that explores for, produces, and refines crude oil and natural gas, while also manufacturing and selling petrochemical products and operating a retail fuels business. The company operates upstream, downstream, and chemical businesses across multiple continents, with significant operations in the United States, Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.

Forward Fair Value verdict

Overvalued

Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model, XOM is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value.

XOM currently ranks #17 of 25 Energy stocks by discount to Forward Fair Value. It has screened as Overvalued for 3 consecutive weekly runs.

Last price: $159.47
Sector: Energy
12-month range: $112.77–$164.55

Derived indicators

Coarse bands from TickrTrends' weekly models; exact figures are part of the full report.

Quality grade: D
Leverage: Low
Margin trend: Stable
Revenue growth: Declining
RSI zone: Neutral
52-week position: The top quarter of its range
DCF cross-check: Undervalued

What our data shows for XOM

Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for XOM, built from quarterly earnings records.
Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $112.77–$164.55.
The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 57.

The exact numbers are one step away

The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for XOM
Exact discount / premium to today's price
The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes

See the exact fair value →

How Forward Fair Value works

TickrTrends computes a Forward Fair Value for every covered stock each week: a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple is applied to the analyst-consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year. Every input window is validated for continuity and every result is screened for plausibility before publication.

Recent XOM news

TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for XOM is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.

U.S. Energy Stocks Rise Premarket as Brent Approaches $100 (finance.yahoo.com, 2026-09-08)
TickrTrends take: Energy sector stocks including XOM are receiving upward momentum in premarket trading as Brent crude approaches the $100 price level, a threshold that typically supports higher profitability for integrated oil companies. However, TickrTrends currently derives an Overvalued verdict for XOM, suggesting that recent price strength may already be reflected in the current valuation. Investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether XOM's stock price continues to appreciate faster than fundamentals improve, which could further widen any valuation gap.
XOM Looks 27.3% Overvalued on GF Value™ as Dividend Sustainability Remains Key (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-01)
TickrTrends take: Exxon Mobil's current valuation assessment aligns with TickrTrends' overvalued designation, suggesting the stock may be priced above levels justified by fundamental analysis. For investors focused on valuation metrics, the dividend sustainability question becomes particularly relevant in an overvalued context, as high payouts relative to earnings could limit financial flexibility if energy sector conditions deteriorate. Monitoring management's capital allocation decisions and cash flow generation will be essential to determine whether the current premium valuation can be justified over time.
Chevron and Exxon Mobil Rise 3% as U.S. Strikes on Iran Push WTI Crude Oil to $86 (finance.yahoo.com, 2026-08-31)
TickrTrends take: XOM shares rose 3% following geopolitical tensions that lifted crude oil prices to 86 dollars per barrel, yet TickrTrends currently assesses the stock as overvalued despite the near-term energy price strength. For valuation-focused investors, the key consideration is whether this crude price rally reflects a sustainable shift in market fundamentals or a temporary geopolitical premium that may not justify XOM's current valuation multiples. The Energy sector's sensitivity to oil price volatility means monitoring whether crude remains elevated and whether XOM's earnings growth can support its present valuation levels.

What people are saying

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TickrTrends weekly updates

2026-09-07 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-09-06 — XOM's momentum indicator declined this week, shifting from a B rating to none, suggesting a loss of upward price movement. The stock remains classified as overvalued according to TickrTrends' current valuation assessment.
2026-08-31 — TickrTrends initiated weekly Forward Fair Value coverage of this stock.

Frequently asked questions

Is XOM stock undervalued?

Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-09-07), XOM is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.

What is XOM's TickrTrends verdict?

XOM's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.

How does XOM compare to other Energy stocks?

XOM ranks #17 of 25 Energy stocks in TickrTrends' coverage when sorted by discount to Forward Fair Value.

Is XOM overbought or oversold?

XOM's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.

All Energy fair-value coverage →

Head-to-head comparisons

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