Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
XOM price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
OvervaluedXOM is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $168.94
- Sector
- Energy
- 12-month range
- $113.68–$178.98
- Market cap
- $695B
- From 52-week high
- -5.6%
- Shares outstanding
- 4.11B
- Rank in Energy by discount to fair value
- #15 of 24
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Exxon Mobil Corporation is an integrated energy company that explores for, produces, and refines crude oil and natural gas, while also manufacturing and selling petrochemical products and operating a retail fuels business. The company operates upstream, downstream, and chemical businesses across multiple continents, with significant operations in the United States, Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.
XOM currently ranks #15 of 24 Energy stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Overvalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $695B
- P/E (trailing)
- 20x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $361B
- Net margin
- 9.1%
- EPS (TTM)
- $8.27
- Gross margin
- 22.4%
- Debt / equity
- 0.16
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 9.8%
- Shares outstanding
- 4.11B
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- C
- Margin trend
- Expanding
- 52-week position
- The top quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 73 · overbought
- 50-day average
- $163.69
- 200-day average
- $151.72
- Moving-average state
- 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price above both averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $4.12 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 2.44%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 23
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-08-17
- Last payment date
- 2026-09-10
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-10-30
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 7 beat, 1 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▼ miss (-4.3%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+14.9%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+1.2%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+3.3%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+5.1%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+1.1%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+7.7%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+2.7%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 10 buy · 15 hold · 0 sell (25 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Hold-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $176
- Target vs last price
- +4.2%
What our data shows for XOM
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for XOM, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $113.68–$178.98.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at an overbought 73.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for XOM
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent XOM news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for XOM is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Exxon Mobil (XOM) Shares Slip Amid Light Options Trading Ahead of Earnings (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-20)
TickrTrends take: Exxon Mobil's share price weakness during a period of subdued options activity presents an opportunity to assess whether the stock's decline brings it closer to fair value, given that TickrTrends currently rates XOM as overvalued. The muted trading volume ahead of earnings suggests limited hedging activity from large investors, which means the upcoming results could trigger more significant price movement once guidance and operational metrics are disclosed. For valuation-focused investors, the earnings report will be critical to determining whether XOM's recent slip represents a repricing toward intrinsic value or merely a temporary pullback within an overvalued range. - ExxonMobil’s Dividend Has Deep Pockets, but a Shallow Yield (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-19)
TickrTrends take: ExxonMobil maintains substantial financial capacity to support its dividend payments despite the current yield environment, which reflects the company's strong cash generation in the energy sector. Given TickrTrends' assessment that XOM is overvalued at present levels, investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether the company's dividend sustainability remains supported by free cash flow relative to the payout level. The combination of a well-funded but lower-yielding dividend structure may warrant scrutiny of the underlying fundamentals that drive the overvaluation conclusion. - BP (BP) vs Exxon Mobil (XOM): Which Oil Major is a Better Buy? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-12)
TickrTrends take: XOM is currently assessed as overvalued according to TickrTrends metrics, which suggests investors comparing it to peers like BP should scrutinize whether current pricing adequately reflects the company's fundamentals relative to other energy sector alternatives. A valuation-conscious investor watching this comparison should monitor whether XOM's premium valuation persists or contracts as energy market conditions evolve. The overvalued designation indicates potential caution is warranted before accumulating positions at current price levels.
More XOM news
- ExxonMobil Eyes Expansion in Trinidad and Tobago After Guyana Success (XOM) (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-06)
- IMO Looks 45.7% Overvalued on GF Value™ as Dividend Sustainability Remains Key (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-23)
What people are saying
Follow the XOM conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — XOM's valuation indicators shifted toward overvalued territory this week, with the DCF cross-check band moving from fairly valued to overvalued status. The relative strength index also moved into overbought territory from a neutral zone. These technical and fundamental changes suggest that the Energy sector stock's recent price movement has extended beyond levels supported by current valuations.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is XOM stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), XOM is trading at more than a 25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is XOM's TickrTrends verdict?
XOM's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does XOM compare to other Energy stocks?
XOM ranks #15 of 24 Energy stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is XOM overbought or oversold?
XOM's 14-day RSI is in the overbought zone on TickrTrends' latest weekly data.
Does XOM pay a dividend?
Yes. XOM paid $4.12 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 2.44% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 23 consecutive years. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-08-17.
When does XOM report earnings next?
XOM's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-10-30, per the published earnings calendar.
Does XOM usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters XOM beat the consensus estimate 7 times and missed 1 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about XOM?
Of 25 analysts covering XOM, 10 rate it a buy, 15 a hold and 0 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $176 (+4.2% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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