ConocoPhillips (COP) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
COP price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
Fairly valuedCOP is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $134.10
- Sector
- Energy
- 12-month range
- $85.66–$146.51
- Market cap
- $161B
- From 52-week high
- -8.5%
- Shares outstanding
- 1.2B
- Rank in Energy by discount to fair value
- #13 of 24
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
ConocoPhillips is an international energy company engaged in the exploration, production, and distribution of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The company operates oil and gas properties across multiple regions including Alaska, the Lower 48 states, Canada, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East.
COP currently ranks #13 of 24 Energy stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Fairly valued for 3 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $161B
- P/E (trailing)
- 17x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $63.3B
- Net margin
- 14.7%
- EPS (TTM)
- $7.76
- Gross margin
- 36.7%
- Debt / equity
- 0.36
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 11.5%
- Shares outstanding
- 1.2B
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- C
- Margin trend
- Contracting
- 52-week position
- The top quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 71 · overbought
- 50-day average
- $131.77
- 200-day average
- $118.73
- Moving-average state
- 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price above both averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $3.36 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 2.51%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 0 (no streak on complete calendar years)
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-08-17
- Last payment date
- 2026-09-01
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-11-05 (pre-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 7 beat, 1 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+9.5%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+11.8%)
2025-12 ▼ miss (-6.4%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+14.2%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+4.4%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+2.0%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+8.2%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+8.5%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 19 buy · 9 hold · 0 sell (28 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $149
- Target vs last price
- +11.1%
What our data shows for COP
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for COP, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $85.66–$146.51.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at an overbought 71.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for COP
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent COP news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for COP is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Energy Sector Spotlight: ConocoPhillips (COP) Shines as Dividend Sustainability Draws Investor Focus (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-12)
TickrTrends take: ConocoPhillips trades at a valuation that TickrTrends currently assesses as fairly valued, suggesting the market has already priced in much of the company's dividend profile. Investors focusing on valuation metrics should monitor whether the sustainability of COP's dividend payments remains supported by cash generation, as dividend reliability typically anchors fair-value assessments in the energy sector. A fairness reading indicates limited margin for multiple expansion unless the company demonstrates earnings growth or cash flow improvements that exceed current market expectations. - ConocoPhillips (COP) Sees Oil Price Floor Rising to $70 as It Weighs North Sea Asset Offer (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-06)
TickrTrends take: ConocoPhillips' assessment that oil prices may sustain at higher levels around $70 provides underlying support for energy sector valuations, which is relevant context for understanding why the stock currently trades at a fairly valued level. The company's consideration of North Sea asset sales suggests management is actively optimizing its portfolio, a factor that could influence future cash flow generation and shareholder returns regardless of commodity price movements. Investors focused on valuation should monitor how any realized proceeds from asset dispositions and the company's revised outlook on price floors affect earnings power relative to the current fairly valued assessment. - ConocoPhillips (COP) Considers Sale of Norwegian and U.K. Assets Amid Portfolio Optimization (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-01)
TickrTrends take: ConocoPhillips is evaluating the divestiture of its Norwegian and U.K. operations as part of a broader portfolio optimization strategy, which could materially affect the company's asset base and cash generation profile. TickrTrends currently marks COP as overvalued, making the financial terms and timing of any asset sales particularly relevant to investors, as proceeds and the retained operational footprint will determine whether current valuation metrics remain justified. Changes to the company's geographic exposure and reserve replacement rates from these transactions warrant close monitoring against the sector backdrop.
What people are saying
Follow the COP conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for COP reflected notable momentum shifts this week. The RSI zone moved from neutral territory into overbought conditions, indicating increased buying pressure in the energy sector stock. Based on current analysis, COP maintains a fairly valued assessment.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — # COP (Energy Sector) - Weekly Indicator Summary TickrTrends' derived indicators for COP shifted this week as the valuation verdict moved from Overvalued to Fairly valued, suggesting a moderation in the stock's pricing relative to its fundamental metrics. This change reflects a realignment of the company's valuation multiples or underlying financial indicators tracked by TickrTrends' analysis framework. The stock currently stands at a Fairly valued assessment according to the latest indicator readings.
- 2026-10-10 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for COP showed a decline this week, with the quality grade falling from B to C. The stock remains at a fairly valued assessment based on current metrics. This downgrade in quality grade suggests a weakening in the underlying fundamentals tracked by the indicator system.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is COP stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), COP is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value and screens as fairly valued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is COP's TickrTrends verdict?
COP's current verdict is Fairly valued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does COP compare to other Energy stocks?
COP ranks #13 of 24 Energy stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is COP overbought or oversold?
COP's 14-day RSI is in the overbought zone on TickrTrends' latest weekly data.
Does COP pay a dividend?
Yes. COP paid $3.36 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 2.51% yield on TickrTrends' last price. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-08-17.
When does COP report earnings next?
COP's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-11-05 (pre-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does COP usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters COP beat the consensus estimate 7 times and missed 1 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about COP?
Of 28 analysts covering COP, 19 rate it a buy, 9 a hold and 0 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $149 (+11.1% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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