ConocoPhillips (COP) fair value analysis

S&P 500 · Updated 2026-09-07

ConocoPhillips is an international energy company engaged in the exploration, production, and distribution of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The company operates oil and gas properties across multiple regions including Alaska, the Lower 48 states, Canada, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East.

Forward Fair Value verdict

Overvalued

Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model, COP is trading at a 10–25% premium to estimated fair value.

COP currently ranks #11 of 25 Energy stocks by discount to Forward Fair Value. It has screened as Overvalued for 3 consecutive weekly runs.

Last price: $134.26
Sector: Energy
12-month range: $87.76–$136.19

Derived indicators

Coarse bands from TickrTrends' weekly models; exact figures are part of the full report.

Quality grade: F
Leverage: Low
Margin trend: Contracting
Revenue growth: Declining
RSI zone: Overbought
52-week position: The top quarter of its range
DCF cross-check: Undervalued

What our data shows for COP

Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for COP, built from quarterly earnings records.
Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $87.76–$136.19.
The 14-day relative strength index sits at an overbought 72.

The exact numbers are one step away

The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for COP
Exact discount / premium to today's price
The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes

See the exact fair value →

How Forward Fair Value works

TickrTrends computes a Forward Fair Value for every covered stock each week: a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple is applied to the analyst-consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year. Every input window is validated for continuity and every result is screened for plausibility before publication.

Recent COP news

TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for COP is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.

Chevron Stayed in Venezuela for 20 Years While Rivals Left. Here's Why Its CEO Says Patience Pays Off. (finance.yahoo.com, 2026-09-06)
TickrTrends take: ConocoPhillips' sustained operations in challenging geopolitical environments contrasts with competitors' exits, and this resilience in energy assets may inform whether current valuations reflect the company's actual earning power from long-term positions. TickrTrends currently marks COP as overvalued within the Energy sector, suggesting investors should monitor whether management's patience strategy justifies premium pricing or if near-term cash flow constraints limit upside. The tension between operational longevity and valuation multiples becomes critical to evaluate as commodity prices and geopolitical stability shift.
COP Looks 7.9% Overvalued on GF Value™ Amid Dividend Sustainability Concerns (gurufocus.com, 2026-08-27)
TickrTrends take: ConocoPhillips appears overpriced relative to its fundamentals according to valuation metrics, which aligns with TickrTrends' assessment that the stock is overvalued in the Energy sector. For investors focused on valuation, the dividend sustainability concerns flagged in the analysis warrant monitoring, as dividend cuts or suspensions could materially impact total returns if the company faces cash flow pressures. The combination of elevated valuation multiples and questions about the durability of current payouts suggests investors should track upcoming earnings reports and cash flow statements to assess whether the dividend remains adequately supported by operational performance.
Morgan Stanley Sees a New High for ConocoPhillips (COP). Should Investors Buy? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-08-26)
TickrTrends take: ConocoPhillips trades at a valuation that TickrTrends currently assesses as overvalued, which creates tension with Morgan Stanley's bullish price target. A valuation-focused investor should monitor whether the company's fundamentals strengthen enough to justify a higher valuation multiple, or whether COP's current trading level already reflects optimistic expectations for the Energy sector. The gap between analyst price targets and current valuation metrics will be key to watching as energy market conditions evolve.

What people are saying

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TickrTrends weekly updates

2026-09-07 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-09-06 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for COP show a notable shift this week as the RSI zone moved from neutral into overbought territory, signaling intensifying upward momentum in the Energy sector stock. With a current valuation verdict of Overvalued, the combination of overbought technical conditions and elevated valuation metrics suggests the stock has experienced substantial appreciation recently.
2026-08-31 — TickrTrends initiated weekly Forward Fair Value coverage of this stock.

Frequently asked questions

Is COP stock undervalued?

Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-09-07), COP is trading at a 10–25% premium to estimated fair value and screens as overvalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.

What is COP's TickrTrends verdict?

COP's current verdict is Overvalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.

How does COP compare to other Energy stocks?

COP ranks #11 of 25 Energy stocks in TickrTrends' coverage when sorted by discount to Forward Fair Value.

Is COP overbought or oversold?

COP's 14-day RSI is in the overbought zone on TickrTrends' latest weekly data.

All Energy fair-value coverage →

Head-to-head comparisons

COP vs BKR · COP vs EOG · COP vs EQT · COP vs EXE · COP vs FANG