American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) fair value analysis
S&P 500 & Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19
AAL price how computed
Valuation status
No verdict this weekAAL: Next year's consensus is far above both what this company earned over the last four quarters and what its most recent quarter is earning.
Our model does not publish a verdict on a forecast that far from results; it is re-evaluated weekly.
- Last price
- $11.88
- Sector
- Industrials
- 12-month range
- $10.18–$18.15
- Market cap
- $7.86B
- From 52-week high
- -34.5%
- Shares outstanding
- 662M
- Rank in Industrials by quality score
- #109 of 152
Last price is our stored weekly price from 2026-10-16, older than the 2026-10-19 run that built this page; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
American Airlines Group Inc. is a major airline operator that provides passenger air transportation services across domestic and international routes. The company operates flights to destinations throughout North America, the Caribbean, Central America, South America, and Europe.
AAL currently ranks #109 of 152 Industrials stocks by quality score.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $7.86B
- P/E (trailing)
- n/m
- Revenue (TTM)
- $58.3B
- Net margin
- -0.6%
- EPS (TTM)
- $-0.26
- Gross margin
- 20.7%
- Debt / equity
- 0.00
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 8.0%
- Shares outstanding
- 662M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- F
- Margin trend
- Stable
- 52-week position
- The bottom quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 38 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $13.42
- 200-day average
- $13.69
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price below both averages
Dividends how computed
- Dividend
- None in the last 12 months (last ex-date 2020-02-04)
Earnings how computed
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 7 beat, 1 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+400.0%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+13.0%)
2025-12 ▼ miss (-54.3%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+39.3%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+23.4%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+11.9%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+30.3%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+76.5%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 12 buy · 11 hold · 2 sell (25 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Hold-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $15.9
- Target vs last price
- +33.8%
What our data shows for AAL
- Our model validated 12 trailing price-to-earnings windows for AAL, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $10.18–$18.15.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 38.
What subscribers see
- Every published Forward Fair Value with its exact discount or premium
- The normalized P/E and quarter count behind each estimate
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
- AAL's own verdict the week it qualifies, published automatically
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent AAL news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for AAL is currently mixed, computed from recent coverage.
- American Airlines Group Inc. 2026 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NASDAQ:AAL) 2026-10-22 (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-22)
TickrTrends take: American Airlines Group is an industrial sector company currently assessed as fairly valued by TickrTrends, meaning its stock price appears aligned with its fundamental metrics. With the company having reported its third quarter 2026 results, investors focused on valuation should monitor whether operational performance and forward guidance support maintaining this fair value assessment or signal a shift in the company's financial trajectory. The airline industry's sensitivity to fuel costs, capacity utilization, and macroeconomic conditions makes quarterly earnings particularly relevant for tracking whether AAL's valuation remains justified relative to its peers. - American Airlines Shares Hit On Wider Q3 Loss, Cautious Outlook On Fuel Costs, Despite Strong Demand (rttnews.com, 2026-10-22)
TickrTrends take: American Airlines reported a wider loss in the third quarter while maintaining a cautious stance on future fuel cost pressures, even as the company benefited from robust travel demand. Given that TickrTrends currently assesses AAL as fairly valued, investors focused on valuation should monitor whether management's fuel cost concerns translate into margin compression that could challenge the airline's ability to maintain earnings power relative to its current valuation. The tension between strong demand and cost headwinds will be critical to watch in determining whether the fairly valued assessment remains appropriate going forward. - American Airlines (AAL) Earns Top Valuation Grade Among Industrials Amid Q3 Earnings Season (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-21)
TickrTrends take: American Airlines has received recognition for its valuation positioning relative to other companies in the Industrials sector during the third quarter earnings reporting period. This assessment aligns with TickrTrends' current evaluation of AAL as fairly valued, suggesting the market price reflects the company's fundamental characteristics without significant premium or discount. Investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether AAL maintains this relative standing as additional quarterly results are reported and industry dynamics evolve.
More AAL news
- A Look at American Airlines Group Inc (AAL) After 3.3% Decline -- GF Value $15.37 vs Price $11.88 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-16)
- Options Market Shows Mild Bearish Sentiment Ahead of AAL Earnings on October 22, 2026 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-12)
- American Airlines: A Bargain Facing A Fuel Crisis (NASDAQ:AAL) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-12)
- AAL Maintained by Wells Fargo -- Price Target Lowered to $14.00 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-06)
What people are saying
Follow the AAL conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — AAL's technical trend shifted to downtrend this week as its 50/200-day moving average relationship deteriorated from mixed conditions. The stock improved its valuation profile from overvalued to fairly valued, while its relative valuation position among industrials sector peers strengthened, moving from #87 to #79 in the sector discount ranking.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for AAL show a significant deterioration in valuation metrics this week. The stock's sector discount rank fell sharply from 35 to 87 among Industrials peers, reflecting a notable loss in relative value positioning. The valuation verdict shifted from Undervalued to Overvalued, indicating that AAL now trades at a premium relative to its fundamental metrics within the sector.
- 2026-10-10 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-06 — AAL's sector discount rank declined from number 32 to number 37 this week, indicating a relative weakening in its valuation position within the Industrials sector. Despite this shift, the stock maintains an Undervalued verdict according to TickrTrends' derived indicators.
- 2026-09-28 — AAL's relative valuation position weakened this week as its sector discount rank declined from 29 to 39 within the Industrials sector. Despite this shift in ranking, the stock maintains an Undervalued verdict on the current valuation assessment.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is AAL stock undervalued?
AAL does not yet have sufficient validated earnings history for a full Forward Fair Value verdict under TickrTrends' standards; it is re-evaluated every week.
What is AAL's TickrTrends verdict?
AAL is currently marked 'Awaiting full valuation' - a verdict publishes automatically once at least six validated trailing P/E windows accumulate.
How does AAL compare to other Industrials stocks?
AAL ranks #109 of 152 Industrials stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by quality score. It carries no fair-value verdict yet, so it is not ranked by discount.
Is AAL overbought or oversold?
AAL's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does AAL pay a dividend?
AAL has paid no dividend in the last twelve months; its last ex-dividend date on file was 2020-02-04.
Does AAL usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters AAL beat the consensus estimate 7 times and missed 1 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about AAL?
Of 25 analysts covering AAL, 12 rate it a buy, 11 a hold and 2 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $15.9 (+33.8% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.