Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) fair value analysis
S&P 500 & Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19
ADP price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedADP is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $270.88
- Sector
- Technology
- 12-month range
- $188.79–$288.90
- Market cap
- $107B
- From 52-week high
- -6.2%
- Shares outstanding
- 396M
- Rank in Technology by discount to fair value
- #58 of 181
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. provides cloud-based human capital management software and services, including payroll processing, benefits administration, and workforce analytics solutions. The company operates globally, serving businesses of various sizes across multiple industries in North America, Europe, and other international markets.
ADP currently ranks #58 of 181 Technology stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $107B
- P/E (trailing)
- 24x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $21.9B
- Net margin
- 20.1%
- EPS (TTM)
- $11.12
- Gross margin
- 53.0%
- Debt / equity
- 0.87
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 7.1%
- Shares outstanding
- 396M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- C
- Margin trend
- Contracting
- 52-week position
- The top quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 69 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $272.86
- 200-day average
- $238.64
- Moving-average state
- 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price between the averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $6.80 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 2.51%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 10
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-09-11
- Last payment date
- 2026-10-01
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-10-28 (pre-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 8 beat, 0 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+1.9%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+2.1%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+1.9%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+2.0%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+1.3%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+3.0%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+2.2%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+5.4%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 4 buy · 12 hold · 2 sell (18 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Hold-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $286
- Target vs last price
- +5.6%
What our data shows for ADP
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for ADP, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the upper third of their 12-month price range of $188.79–$288.90.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 69.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for ADP
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent ADP news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for ADP is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- US Private Sector Job Growth Shows Steady Increase: ADP (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-20)
TickrTrends take: ADP's ADP National Employment Report indicating steady private sector job growth reflects underlying economic resilience that could support continued demand for its human capital management solutions. For investors focused on valuation, this positive employment data becomes relevant if it translates into sustained client spending and recurring revenue expansion for ADP's core business segments. TickrTrends currently assesses ADP as undervalued within the Technology sector, making the correlation between employment trends and ADP's own business performance a metric worth monitoring as earnings materialize. - ADP DCF Analysis: Intrinsic Value $187 vs Price $287 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-20)
TickrTrends take: A significant gap exists between ADP's current market price of $287 and the discounted cash flow analysis valuation of $187, representing a substantial premium to this fundamental value estimate. TickrTrends currently categorizes ADP as undervalued despite this DCF analysis, suggesting the market assessment and fundamental valuation models may be weighing different growth assumptions or risk factors. Investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether ADP's business performance justifies its current trading premium or whether convergence between these valuation perspectives occurs. - ADP (ADP) vs. PAYC and PAYX: Can Recurring Revenue and Buybacks Offset Slower Growth? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-12)
TickrTrends take: ADP's emphasis on recurring revenue streams and share buyback programs are relevant to its Undervalued designation, as these factors can support valuation multiples even during periods of decelerated growth. Investors tracking ADP's valuation should monitor whether management's capital allocation strategy through buybacks can help maintain or improve per-share metrics while the company navigates competitive pressures from peers like Paycom and Paychex. The company's ability to convert its established recurring revenue base into consistent earnings will be a key determinant of whether the current undervaluation assessment remains justified.
More ADP news
- Automatic Data Processing (ADP): Is Its Payroll Moat and Float Windfall Built to Last? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-07)
- U.S. Private Sector Employment Surges in September, ADP (ADP) Dividend Remains Attractive Amid Market Dynamics (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-30)
What people are saying
Follow the ADP conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for ADP showed movement this week within the Technology sector. The 50/200-day trend state shifted from uptrend to mixed, while the sector discount rank moved from position 75 to position 80. The current valuation verdict remains Undervalued.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — TickrTrends' derived indicators show that ADP moved from the 77th position to the 70th position in sector discount ranking among Technology stocks this week, indicating a modest improvement in its relative valuation standing. The company maintains an undervalued status based on the current valuation verdict.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — # ADP Summary ADP's momentum indicator, which received an A rating last week, is no longer present in TickrTrends' derived indicators this week. The Technology sector stock maintains an undervalued valuation verdict according to current analysis.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is ADP stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), ADP is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is ADP's TickrTrends verdict?
ADP's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does ADP compare to other Technology stocks?
ADP ranks #58 of 181 Technology stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is ADP overbought or oversold?
ADP's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does ADP pay a dividend?
Yes. ADP paid $6.80 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 2.51% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 10 consecutive years. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-09-11.
When does ADP report earnings next?
ADP's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-10-28 (pre-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does ADP usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters ADP beat the consensus estimate 8 times and missed 0 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about ADP?
Of 18 analysts covering ADP, 4 rate it a buy, 12 a hold and 2 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $286 (+5.6% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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