Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
AJG price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedAJG is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $232.70
- Sector
- Financial Services
- 12-month range
- $192.00–$280.73
- Market cap
- $59.7B
- From 52-week high
- -17.1%
- Shares outstanding
- 256M
- Rank in Financial Services by discount to fair value
- #13 of 167
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. is an insurance brokerage and risk management services firm that helps clients identify, evaluate, and mitigate business and personal risks through insurance products and related services. The company operates globally with a significant presence in North America, Europe, Asia, and other international markets.
AJG currently ranks #13 of 167 Financial Services stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $59.7B
- P/E (trailing)
- 19x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $15.8B
- Net margin
- 10.0%
- EPS (TTM)
- $12.01
- Gross margin
- 80.9%
- Debt / equity
- 0.09
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 20.2%
- Shares outstanding
- 256M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- A
- Margin trend
- Expanding
- 52-week position
- The lower-middle quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 66 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $246.12
- 200-day average
- $231.89
- Moving-average state
- 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price between the averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $2.75 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 1.18%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 15
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-09-08
- Last payment date
- 2026-09-18
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-10-29 (post-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 4 beat, 3 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▬ met (0.0%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+0.9%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+1.3%)
2025-09 ▼ miss (-8.7%)
2025-06 ▼ miss (-1.3%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+2.5%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+4.9%)
2024-09 ▼ miss (-0.4%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 16 buy · 6 hold · 0 sell (22 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $283
- Target vs last price
- +21.6%
What our data shows for AJG
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for AJG, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the middle of their 12-month price range of $192.00–$280.73.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 66.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for AJG
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent AJG news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for AJG is currently leaning negative, computed from recent coverage.
- AJG DCF Analysis: Intrinsic Value $102 vs Price $259 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-21)
TickrTrends take: AJG's discounted cash flow analysis suggests an intrinsic value of $102 per share, while the stock currently trades at $259, representing a significant premium to the derived valuation figure. This substantial gap between the DCF-calculated value and market price contrasts with TickrTrends' current assessment that AJG is undervalued, indicating differing methodologies or assumptions between the DCF model and the broader valuation framework. Investors focused on valuation metrics may want to monitor whether the market price gradually converges toward either the DCF estimate or whether AJG's fundamentals demonstrate sufficient growth to justify the premium valuation. - Home Insurance Tops Property Taxes in Squeeze for US Households (insurancejournal.com, 2026-10-20)
TickrTrends take: Rising home insurance costs represent a significant pressure point for US household budgets, which could influence demand patterns and claims frequency for insurance brokers like AJG that operate in this market. Given the Financial Services sector context and the current undervalued verdict from TickrTrends, investors should monitor whether AJG's earnings benefit from increased insurance premium volumes or face headwinds from higher policyholder churn. The sustainability of homeowner insurance pricing power and its effect on AJG's commission and fee revenue warrants attention as a fundamental driver of valuation assumptions. - Hurricane Isaias unlikely to affect Jan 1 reinsurance renewals, says Gallagher Re (reinsurancene.ws, 2026-10-15)
TickrTrends take: Arthur J. Gallagher & Co operates in the Financial Services sector and is currently assessed as undervalued by TickrTrends. The company's reinsurance division has indicated that Hurricane Isaias is not expected to materially impact January 1 reinsurance contract renewals, suggesting business continuity in a key revenue segment. For valuation-focused investors, the absence of significant hurricane-related disruption to renewal schedules supports the premise that near-term earnings visibility remains intact, which becomes relevant when evaluating whether current market pricing adequately reflects operational resilience and renewal stability.
More AJG news
- Is AJG Overvalued? DCF Says Worth $102 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-14)
- AJG Maintained by Morgan Stanley -- Price Target Lowered to $260 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-06)
- Business Moves: Everest Completes Sale of Canadian Retail Operations to Wawanesa; Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Buys New Zealand’s Albany Insurance Services (insurancejournal.com, 2026-10-02)
- Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG): Pricing Is Cooling. Can Acquisitions Carry the Growth Story? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-09-29)
What people are saying
Follow the AJG conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — TickrTrends' quality grade for AJG improved from C to A this week, reflecting a positive shift in the company's derived indicators. This upgrade suggests enhanced performance metrics within the Financial Services sector. AJG's current valuation verdict remains Undervalued.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is AJG stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), AJG is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is AJG's TickrTrends verdict?
AJG's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does AJG compare to other Financial Services stocks?
AJG ranks #13 of 167 Financial Services stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is AJG overbought or oversold?
AJG's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does AJG pay a dividend?
Yes. AJG paid $2.75 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 1.18% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 15 consecutive years. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-09-08.
When does AJG report earnings next?
AJG's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-10-29 (post-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does AJG usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters AJG beat the consensus estimate 4 times and missed 3 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about AJG?
Of 22 analysts covering AJG, 16 rate it a buy, 6 a hold and 0 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $283 (+21.6% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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