Century Aluminum Company (CENX) fair value analysis
Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19
CENX price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedCENX is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $35.03
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- 12-month range
- $26.19–$68.77
- Market cap
- $3.47B
- From 52-week high
- -49.1%
- Shares outstanding
- 99M
- Rank in Basic Materials by discount to fair value
- #1 of 26
Last price is our stored weekly price from 2026-10-16, older than the 2026-10-19 run that built this page; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Century Aluminum Company is a producer of primary aluminum products that operates in the United States. The company operates aluminum smelters and engages in the production and sale of molten aluminum and cast products.
CENX currently ranks #1 of 26 Basic Materials stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $3.47B
- P/E (trailing)
- 6x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $2.67B
- Net margin
- 22.6%
- EPS (TTM)
- $5.83
- Gross margin
- 30.3%
- Debt / equity
- 0.34
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- 12.6%
- Shares outstanding
- 99M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- C
- Margin trend
- Expanding
- 52-week position
- The bottom quarter of its range
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 34 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $41.87
- 200-day average
- $50.43
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price below both averages
Dividends how computed
- Dividend
- None in the last 12 months (last ex-date 2002-09-18)
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-11-05
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 2 beat, 6 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▼ miss (-0.4%)
2026-03 ▼ miss (-8.4%)
2025-12 ▼ miss (-3.8%)
2025-09 ▼ miss (-33.3%)
2025-06 ▼ miss (-114.7%)
2025-03 ▼ miss (-39.0%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+10.1%)
2024-09 ▲ beat (+133.3%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 4 buy · 0 hold · 0 sell (4 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Buy-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $60.2
- Target vs last price
- +71.9%
What our data shows for CENX
- Our model validated 14 trailing price-to-earnings windows for CENX, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $26.19–$68.77.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 34.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for CENX
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent CENX news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for CENX is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Century Aluminum (CENX) Shares Rise 4% on Positive Outlook and UBS Buy Rating (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-21)
TickrTrends take: Century Aluminum's recent share price movement follows UBS's positive assessment of the company, which aligns with TickrTrends' current undervalued designation for the stock. Given that aluminum producers in the Basic Materials sector are sensitive to commodity price cycles and production costs, investors tracking valuation metrics should monitor whether the company's operational improvements and market outlook can sustain this momentum relative to its fundamental valuation. The combination of analyst upgrades and an undervalued status suggests the market may still be pricing in more pessimism than current conditions warrant for this cyclical business. - Century Aluminum (CENX) Starts Q4 2026 with Strong Growth Grades Amid Valuation Concerns (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-05)
TickrTrends take: Century Aluminum operates in the Basic Materials sector, where TickrTrends currently derives an Undervalued verdict for CENX based on its analysis. The company's strong growth trajectory entering Q4 2026 provides fundamental support for this undervaluation assessment, as robust operational performance can justify current price levels relative to earnings potential. Investors focused on valuation metrics should monitor whether CENX's growth momentum persists and translates into sustained earnings expansion, which would be central to validating the undervalued characterization. - Century Aluminum: More Production Could Make Earnings More Durable (NASDAQ:CENX) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-09-16)
TickrTrends take: Century Aluminum operates in the Basic Materials sector where production capacity directly influences earnings sustainability and cash generation. The prospect of increased production aligns with TickrTrends' current undervalued assessment, as higher output could support stronger and more consistent earnings that justify a higher valuation multiple. Investors monitoring CENX's valuation should track whether management actually delivers on production expansion plans, since realized capacity gains would be essential to closing any gap between current pricing and intrinsic value.
What people are saying
Follow the CENX conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — CENX moved from an oversold RSI zone to a neutral RSI zone this week. The stock remains classified as undervalued according to TickrTrends' derived indicators. This shift in the relative strength index suggests reduced downward momentum compared to the previous week.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — CENX's derived indicators showed a deterioration this week as its quality grade declined from B to C, suggesting a weakening in fundamental metrics. The stock's relative strength index zone shifted from neutral into oversold territory, indicating selling pressure has intensified. Despite these technical and quality declines, the current valuation verdict remains Undervalued.
- 2026-10-05 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — CENX's technical indicators shifted this week as the stock transitioned from a mixed trend state to a downtrend in its 50/200-day moving average relationship. The stock remains classified as undervalued based on current valuation metrics. This deterioration in trend momentum represents a notable change from the prior week's mixed technical positioning.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is CENX stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), CENX is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is CENX's TickrTrends verdict?
CENX's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does CENX compare to other Basic Materials stocks?
CENX ranks #1 of 26 Basic Materials stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is CENX overbought or oversold?
CENX's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does CENX pay a dividend?
CENX has paid no dividend in the last twelve months; its last ex-dividend date on file was 2002-09-18.
When does CENX report earnings next?
CENX's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-11-05, per the published earnings calendar.
Does CENX usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters CENX beat the consensus estimate 2 times and missed 6 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about CENX?
Of 4 analysts covering CENX, 4 rate it a buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $60.2 (+71.9% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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