Century Aluminum Company (CENX) fair value analysis

Nasdaq · Updated 2026-09-07

Century Aluminum Company is a producer of primary aluminum products that operates in the United States. The company operates aluminum smelters and engages in the production and sale of molten aluminum and cast products.

Forward Fair Value verdict

Undervalued

Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model, CENX is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value.

CENX currently ranks #1 of 27 Basic Materials stocks by discount to Forward Fair Value. It has screened as Undervalued for 3 consecutive weekly runs.

Last price: $45.20
Sector: Basic Materials
12-month range: $29.40–$63.91

Derived indicators

Coarse bands from TickrTrends' weekly models; exact figures are part of the full report.

Quality grade: F
Leverage: Moderate
Margin trend: Expanding
Revenue growth: Modest
RSI zone: Neutral
50/200-day trend: Downtrend
52-week position: The lower-middle quarter of its range

What our data shows for CENX

Our model validated 14 trailing price-to-earnings windows for CENX, built from quarterly earnings records.
Shares are trading in the middle of their 12-month price range of $29.40–$63.91.
The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 51.

The exact numbers are one step away

The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for CENX
Exact discount / premium to today's price
The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes

See the exact fair value →

How Forward Fair Value works

TickrTrends computes a Forward Fair Value for every covered stock each week: a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple is applied to the analyst-consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year. Every input window is validated for continuity and every result is screened for plausibility before publication.

Recent CENX news

TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for CENX is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.

Kentucky PSC Approves 482 MW Power Agreement for TeraWulf’s Justified Data Campus (manilatimes.net, 2026-08-24)
TickrTrends take: TeraWulf's approval for a 482 megawatt power agreement represents a significant infrastructure milestone that could enhance the operational capacity and cost efficiency of its data center operations in Kentucky. For a valuation-focused reader tracking CENX in the Basic Materials sector, this development is relevant as it may improve the competitive positioning and scalability of operations that depend on reliable power infrastructure. Given TickrTrends' current undervalued assessment, investors should monitor whether this infrastructure approval translates into concrete operational expansions and margin improvements that could justify the current valuation opinion.
Century Aluminum Company 2026 Q2 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NASDAQ:CENX) 2026-08-10 (seekingalpha.com, 2026-08-10)
TickrTrends take: Century Aluminum's Q2 2026 results presentation provides an opportunity to assess whether the company's operational performance and financial metrics support TickrTrends' current undervalued assessment in the Basic Materials sector. Investors focused on valuation should monitor how the company's earnings, cash generation, and balance sheet strength compare to the multiples currently reflected in its stock price. The earnings call will be particularly relevant for understanding whether recent trends in aluminum pricing and production costs have meaningfully altered the company's intrinsic value relative to its trading level.
The Race For Rare Earth Sovereignty (seekingalpha.com, 2026-08-10)
TickrTrends take: The rare earth industry's strategic importance continues to drive long-term demand tailwinds for companies in the Basic Materials sector, including CENX. Given TickrTrends' undervalued assessment, investors monitoring this space should track whether CENX can capture share of sovereignty-focused supply chain initiatives, as government support for domestic rare earth production could materially impact future revenue and margins. The geopolitical emphasis on supply chain independence may create a favorable environment for valuation re-rating if CENX successfully positions itself within these emerging opportunities.

What people are saying

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TickrTrends weekly updates

2026-09-07 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-09-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-08-31 — TickrTrends initiated weekly Forward Fair Value coverage of this stock.

Frequently asked questions

Is CENX stock undervalued?

Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-09-07), CENX is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.

What is CENX's TickrTrends verdict?

CENX's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.

How does CENX compare to other Basic Materials stocks?

CENX ranks #1 of 27 Basic Materials stocks in TickrTrends' coverage when sorted by discount to Forward Fair Value.

Is CENX overbought or oversold?

CENX's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.

All Basic Materials fair-value coverage →

Head-to-head comparisons

CENX vs DOW · CENX vs ECL · CENX vs FCX · CENX vs GSM · CENX vs IOSP