Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
HRL price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedHRL is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $19.19
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- 12-month range
- $19.19–$26.51
- Market cap
- $10.6B
- From 52-week high
- -27.6%
- Shares outstanding
- 550M
- Rank in Consumer Defensive by discount to fair value
- #4 of 61
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
Hormel Foods Corporation is a food company that produces and distributes meat products, including branded items such as SPAM, bacon, and pepperoni, along with other food categories like shelf-stable meals, nutritional products, and specialty foods. The company operates manufacturing facilities and conducts business across the United States and internationally, serving retail customers, foodservice operators, and other food companies.
HRL currently ranks #4 of 61 Consumer Defensive stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $10.6B
- P/E (trailing)
- 13x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $12.1B
- Net margin
- 2.8%
- EPS (TTM)
- $1.43
- Gross margin
- 15.9%
- Debt / equity
- 0.36
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- -2.5%
- Shares outstanding
- 550M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- F
- Margin trend
- Stable
- 52-week position
- The bottom quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 56 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $21.53
- 200-day average
- $22.95
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price below both averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $1.17 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 6.10%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 8
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-10-13
- Last payment date
- 2026-11-16
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-12-03
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 5 beat, 2 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-07 ▲ beat (+2.8%)
2026-04 ▲ beat (+14.3%)
2026-01 ▲ beat (+6.3%)
2025-10 ▲ beat (+6.7%)
2025-07 ▼ miss (-14.6%)
2025-04 ▲ beat (+2.9%)
2025-01 ▼ miss (-5.4%)
2024-10 ▬ met (0.0%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 3 buy · 7 hold · 0 sell (10 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Hold-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $25.3
- Target vs last price
- +31.8%
What our data shows for HRL
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for HRL, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $19.19–$26.51.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 56.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for HRL
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent HRL news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for HRL is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- Hormel (HRL): Can Foodservice Expansion Earn More Than its Cost of Capital? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-12)
TickrTrends take: Hormel's foodservice expansion initiative raises a key question for value investors: whether the company can generate returns that exceed its weighted average cost of capital on these incremental investments. Given TickrTrends' undervalued designation, investors should monitor upcoming earnings reports and segment disclosures to assess whether this expansion strategy is producing sufficient revenue growth and margin improvement to justify the capital deployment. In the Consumer Defensive sector, where stable cash flows often justify premium valuations, the execution of this expansion will be critical to determining whether the current undervalued assessment remains valid. - Hormel Foods Has a Nearly 6% Dividend Yield. Is the Stock Too Cheap to Ignore? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-08)
TickrTrends take: Hormel Foods' dividend yield at nearly 6% reflects a significant repricing of the stock that has created the current undervalued assessment from TickrTrends in the Consumer Defensive sector. For valuation-focused investors, the key consideration is whether this elevated yield represents a temporary dislocation or signals underlying concerns about the company's ability to sustain distributions. The Consumer Defensive sector's traditionally stable cash flows make dividend sustainability an important metric to monitor alongside any changes in earnings power or capital allocation priorities. - Hormel Foods: A High-Yield Dividend King At A 13-Year Low (NYSE:HRL) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-07)
TickrTrends take: HRL trades at valuation levels not seen in over a decade, which aligns with TickrTrends' current undervalued assessment for the company. As a Consumer Defensive sector holding with established dividend credentials, the stock's depressed valuation relative to its historical range presents a data point for income-focused investors to monitor alongside the company's ability to maintain or grow its dividend payments. Investors evaluating HRL should track whether the current valuation discount persists or narrows as market conditions evolve.
What people are saying
Follow the HRL conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — HRL's valuation indicators showed mixed movement this week within the Consumer Defensive sector. The DCF cross-check band shifted from fairly valued to overvalued territory, while the RSI zone moved from oversold to neutral, suggesting reduced downward momentum. Despite these shifts toward higher valuation readings, the current verdict remains that HRL is undervalued.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — HRL's valuation assessment shifted this week as TickrTrends' DCF cross-check band moved from overvalued to fairly valued territory, while the overall valuation verdict remains undervalued. This improvement in the DCF cross-check band suggests better alignment between HRL's intrinsic value estimate and current market price within the Consumer Defensive sector. The stock continues to be rated undervalued according to TickrTrends' composite valuation analysis.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is HRL stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), HRL is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is HRL's TickrTrends verdict?
HRL's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does HRL compare to other Consumer Defensive stocks?
HRL ranks #4 of 61 Consumer Defensive stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is HRL overbought or oversold?
HRL's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does HRL pay a dividend?
Yes. HRL paid $1.17 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 6.10% yield on TickrTrends' last price, and has raised the annual total for 8 consecutive years. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-10-13.
When does HRL report earnings next?
HRL's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-12-03, per the published earnings calendar.
Does HRL usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters HRL beat the consensus estimate 5 times and missed 2 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about HRL?
Of 10 analysts covering HRL, 3 rate it a buy, 7 a hold and 0 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $25.3 (+31.8% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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