The Hershey Company (HSY) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
HSY price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
UndervaluedHSY is trading at a 10–25% discount to estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $162.74
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- 12-month range
- $157.61–$236.28
- Market cap
- $34.3B
- From 52-week high
- -31.1%
- Shares outstanding
- 211M
- Rank in Consumer Defensive by discount to fair value
- #14 of 61
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
The Hershey Company manufactures and distributes chocolate confectionery products and other food items under brand names including Hershey's, Kisses, Reese's, and Twizzlers. The company operates facilities and sells its products across North America and internationally in markets around the world.
HSY currently ranks #14 of 61 Consumer Defensive stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $34.3B
- P/E (trailing)
- 22x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $12.2B
- Net margin
- 12.2%
- EPS (TTM)
- $7.26
- Gross margin
- 45.3%
- Debt / equity
- 1.23
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- -2.7%
- Shares outstanding
- 211M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- D
- Margin trend
- Contracting
- 52-week position
- The bottom quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 60 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $173.11
- 200-day average
- $189.86
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price below both averages
Dividends how computed
- Paid, last 12 months
- $5.73 per share (4 payments)
- Yield on last price
- 3.52%
- Consecutive years of increases
- 0 (no streak on complete calendar years)
- Last ex-dividend date
- 2026-08-14
- Last payment date
- 2026-09-15
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-10-29 (pre-market)
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 7 beat, 1 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▲ beat (+31.0%)
2026-03 ▲ beat (+14.6%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+22.1%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+22.6%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+21.0%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+8.3%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+13.0%)
2024-09 ▼ miss (-8.2%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 8 buy · 14 hold · 1 sell (23 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Hold-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $198
- Target vs last price
- +21.7%
What our data shows for HSY
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for HSY, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $157.61–$236.28.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 60.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for HSY
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent HSY news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for HSY is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- HSY Maintained by Barclays -- Price Target Lowered to $178 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-16)
TickrTrends take: Barclays lowered its price target for HSY to 178, a move that suggests the analyst sees limited upside from current levels despite maintaining its rating on the candy and confectionery manufacturer. TickrTrends currently derives an Undervalued verdict for HSY in the Consumer Defensive sector, which indicates the market may not be pricing in the company's fundamental value according to that analysis framework. For valuation-focused readers, the gap between where Barclays sees the stock heading and where TickrTrends sees intrinsic value presents a focal point for monitoring whether consensus analyst views converge with or diverge from the broader valuation assessment. - Hershey (HSY): Can Recovering Chocolate Profits Justify its Valuation? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-11)
TickrTrends take: Hershey's chocolate business recovery presents a key variable for assessing whether current market pricing appropriately reflects the company's earnings power in the Consumer Defensive sector. TickrTrends' undervalued designation suggests that if chocolate profit margins and volumes continue to strengthen, investors may see the stock reprice higher relative to fundamentals. Valuation-focused readers should monitor whether management can sustain profit recovery while maintaining pricing discipline in competitive confectionery markets. - How Hershey, e.l.f. Beauty and LinkedIn Build and Keep Credibility (multichannelmerchant.com, 2026-10-09)
TickrTrends take: Hershey's ability to build and maintain credibility with consumers is particularly relevant given that the Consumer Defensive sector often depends on brand trust and customer loyalty to sustain pricing power and margins over time. TickrTrends currently rates HSY as undervalued, suggesting the market may not be fully pricing in the value of these brand-building efforts and their potential to support long-term competitive positioning. A valuation-focused reader should monitor whether Hershey's credibility investments translate into measurable benefits such as customer retention rates, pricing resilience, or market share gains that could justify current or higher valuations.
More HSY news
- HSY Maintains by Wells Fargo -- Price Target Lowered to $170 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-05)
What people are saying
Follow the HSY conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — HSY's technical positioning improved this week as its RSI moved from oversold territory into neutral range, indicating reduced downward momentum. The stock also strengthened its relative valuation standing within the Consumer Defensive sector, advancing from the 31st most discounted position to 23rd, suggesting it is gaining ground relative to sector peers. With a current undervalued verdict, the stock shows improvement across both technical and valuation metrics compared to the prior week.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — HSY's Relative Strength Index moved from the neutral zone into oversold territory this week, indicating that the stock has experienced significant downward momentum recently. The Consumer Defensive sector company maintains an undervalued valuation verdict based on TickrTrends' derived indicators. This combination of oversold conditions and undervaluation may suggest the stock has moved beyond fair value to the downside.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is HSY stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), HSY is trading at a 10–25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is HSY's TickrTrends verdict?
HSY's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does HSY compare to other Consumer Defensive stocks?
HSY ranks #14 of 61 Consumer Defensive stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is HSY overbought or oversold?
HSY's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does HSY pay a dividend?
Yes. HSY paid $5.73 per share over the last twelve months (4 payments), a 3.52% yield on TickrTrends' last price. The last ex-dividend date was 2026-08-14.
When does HSY report earnings next?
HSY's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-10-29 (pre-market), per the published earnings calendar.
Does HSY usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters HSY beat the consensus estimate 7 times and missed 1 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about HSY?
Of 23 analysts covering HSY, 8 rate it a buy, 14 a hold and 1 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $198 (+21.7% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
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