MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) fair value analysis

Nasdaq · Updated 2026-10-19

MELI price how computed

Last close $1,834.00 -$22.98 (-1.24%) since 2026-10-15

1M +2.61%3M +0.62%6M -1.93%1Y -10.23%

Forward Fair Value verdict

Undervalued

MELI is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value.

Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.

Last price: $1,834.00
Sector: Consumer Cyclical
12-month range: $1,546.81–$2,360.76
Market cap: $93B
From 52-week high: -22.3%
Shares outstanding: 50.7M
Rank in Consumer Cyclical by discount to fair value: #75 of 85

Last price is our stored weekly price from 2026-10-16, older than the 2026-10-19 run that built this page; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.

MercadoLibre, Inc. operates as an e-commerce and payments platform serving Latin America and the Caribbean. The company provides online marketplace services, logistics solutions, and digital payment systems across its regional markets.

MELI currently ranks #75 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Undervalued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.

Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed

Market cap: $93B
P/E (trailing): 50x
Revenue (TTM): $35.2B
Net margin: 5.3%
EPS (TTM): $36.77
Gross margin: 40.9%
Debt / equity: 1.68
Revenue growth (3-yr avg): 53.0%
Shares outstanding: 50.7M

Derived indicators how computed

Quality grade: B
Margin trend: Contracting
52-week position: The lower-middle quarter of its range
DCF cross-check: Undervalued

Technicals how computed

RSI (14-day): 49 · neutral
50-day average: $1,859.98
200-day average: $1,831.59
Moving-average state: 50-day above 200-day (golden cross state); price between the averages

Dividends how computed

Dividend: None in the last 12 months (last ex-date 2017-12-28)

Earnings how computed

Next earnings report: 2026-11-04
Last 8 quarters vs consensus: 3 beat, 5 missed
Quarter by quarter: 2026-06 ▲ beat (+5.8%)
2026-03 ▼ miss (-2.8%)
2025-12 ▼ miss (-6.9%)
2025-09 ▼ miss (-11.2%)
2025-06 ▼ miss (-12.3%)
2025-03 ▲ beat (+21.9%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+56.6%)
2024-09 ▼ miss (-20.5%)

Analyst consensus how computed

This is not TickrTrends' verdict.

Analyst ratings: 22 buy · 4 hold · 0 sell (26 analysts)
Consensus lean: Buy-leaning
Consensus price target: $2270
Target vs last price: +23.8%

What our data shows for MELI

Our model validated 15 trailing price-to-earnings windows for MELI, built from quarterly earnings records.
Shares are trading in the middle of their 12-month price range of $1,546.81–$2,360.76.
The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 49.

The exact numbers are one step away

The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for MELI
Exact discount / premium to today's price
The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes

See the exact fair value →

Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.

Recent MELI news

TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for MELI is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.

MELI Maintained by Cantor Fitzgerald -- Price Target Lowered to $2200 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-12)
TickrTrends take: Cantor Fitzgerald's reduction of MELI's price target to 2200 suggests analyst confidence remains intact despite the downward revision, which could reinforce TickrTrends' undervalued assessment if the maintained rating reflects conviction in the company's fundamentals. For a valuation-focused investor, the key consideration is whether this target adjustment reflects near-term headwinds in the Consumer Cyclical sector or a recalibration of long-term growth expectations for the e-commerce and payments platform. Monitoring how other analysts respond to this revision will be important in confirming whether MELI's valuation discount relative to TickrTrends' undervalued verdict remains justified.
MercadoLibre: Making The Right Investment Moves, Near 20% FCF Yield (NASDAQ:MELI) (seekingalpha.com, 2026-10-12)
TickrTrends take: MercadoLibre's free cash flow yield approaching 20% represents a significant cash generation metric relative to its market valuation, which aligns with TickrTrends' undervalued assessment for the stock. For valuation-focused investors, monitoring whether the company can sustain this FCF yield level becomes critical, as any deterioration in cash generation or multiple expansion could shift the valuation profile. Given the cyclical nature of the Consumer Cyclical sector in which MELI operates, observers should track how macroeconomic conditions affect both the company's profitability and the market's willingness to maintain current valuation multiples.
Shopify (SHOP) vs. MercadoLibre (MELI): Which E-Commerce Stock Deserves the Premium? (insidermonkey.com, 2026-10-07)
TickrTrends take: MercadoLibre operates in the highly competitive e-commerce and payments space where investors frequently compare it to other major players like Shopify. TickrTrends' current assessment that MELI is undervalued suggests the market may not be fully pricing in the company's competitive positioning or growth prospects relative to peers in the Consumer Cyclical sector. For valuation-focused investors, tracking how MELI's fundamentals and market multiples evolve relative to direct competitors will be important in determining whether the undervalued designation holds over time.

What people are saying

Follow the MELI conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X

TickrTrends weekly updates

2026-10-19 — MELI's valuation indicators shifted toward undervalued territory this week as the DCF cross-check band moved from fairly valued to undervalued, suggesting the stock may offer attractive pricing relative to its intrinsic value. Simultaneously, the 50/200-day trend state transitioned from uptrend to mixed, indicating that near-term momentum has become less clearly directional even as the longer-term valuation picture has improved. The current undervalued verdict reflects this shift in fundamental assessment.
2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
2026-10-10 — MELI has experienced several shifts in its technical and valuation indicators over the past week. The DCF cross-check band moved from an undervalued assessment to fairly valued, while the 50/200-day trend state improved from mixed conditions to an uptrend, suggesting strengthening momentum. The stock's sector discount rank declined from 14th to 23rd position, indicating a relative weakening in its valuation advantage compared to other Consumer Cyclical sector peers, though the current overall verdict remains undervalued.
2026-10-05 — MELI's valuation metrics improved this week, with its sector discount rank moving from number 22 to number 16 among Consumer Cyclical stocks, indicating a stronger relative valuation position compared to its peers. The stock maintains an undervalued assessment according to current analysis.
2026-09-28 — MELI, a Consumer Cyclical sector company, has experienced notable shifts in its technical indicators this week. The 50/200-day trend state has transitioned from an uptrend to a mixed state, while momentum has declined from A-grade to none, suggesting reduced directional conviction in the stock's near-term price movement. Despite these weakening indicators, the current valuation verdict remains Undervalued.
2026-09-21 — TickrTrends' derived indicators for MELI have shifted this week, with the DCF cross-check band moving from a fairly valued assessment to an undervalued position. This change aligns with the current valuation verdict that classifies MELI as undervalued within the Consumer Cyclical sector.
2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.

Frequently asked questions

Is MELI stock undervalued?

Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), MELI is trading at more than a 25% discount to estimated fair value and screens as undervalued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.

What is MELI's TickrTrends verdict?

MELI's current verdict is Undervalued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.

How does MELI compare to other Consumer Cyclical stocks?

MELI ranks #75 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.

Is MELI overbought or oversold?

MELI's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.

Does MELI pay a dividend?

MELI has paid no dividend in the last twelve months; its last ex-dividend date on file was 2017-12-28.

When does MELI report earnings next?

MELI's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-11-04, per the published earnings calendar.

Does MELI usually beat earnings estimates?

Over its last 8 reported quarters MELI beat the consensus estimate 3 times and missed 5 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.

What do analysts say about MELI?

Of 26 analysts covering MELI, 22 rate it a buy, 4 a hold and 0 a sell - buy-leaning, with a consensus price target of $2270 (+23.8% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.

All Consumer Cyclical fair-value coverage →

Head-to-head comparisons

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