NVR, Inc. (NVR) fair value analysis
S&P 500 · Updated 2026-10-19
NVR price how computed
Forward Fair Value verdict
Fairly valuedNVR is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value.
Based on TickrTrends' weekly Forward Fair Value model.
- Last price
- $5,899.16
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- 12-month range
- $5,563.62–$8,097.25
- Market cap
- $15.7B
- From 52-week high
- -27.1%
- Shares outstanding
- 2.66M
- Rank in Consumer Cyclical by discount to fair value
- #49 of 85
Last price is our 2026-10-19 weekly price; the chart runs through 2026-10-16.
NVR, Inc. is a homebuilder and mortgage banking company that constructs single-family homes and provides mortgage financing services to its homebuyers. The company operates primarily in the United States across multiple regions through its homebuilding and financial services divisions.
NVR currently ranks #49 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks by discount to fair value. It has screened as Fairly valued for 14 consecutive weekly runs.
Fundamentals (4 quarters) how computed
- Market cap
- $15.7B
- P/E (trailing)
- 15x
- Revenue (TTM)
- $9.43B
- Net margin
- 12.1%
- EPS (TTM)
- $385.59
- Gross margin
- 20.9%
- Debt / equity
- 0.31
- Revenue growth (3-yr avg)
- -3.2%
- Shares outstanding
- 2.66M
Derived indicators how computed
- Quality grade
- D
- Margin trend
- Contracting
- 52-week position
- The bottom quarter of its range
- DCF cross-check
- Overvalued
Technicals how computed
- RSI (14-day)
- 42 · neutral
- 50-day average
- $6,200.53
- 200-day average
- $6,614.38
- Moving-average state
- 50-day below 200-day (death cross state); price below both averages
Dividends how computed
- Dividend
- None in the last 12 months (last ex-date 1999-10-26)
Earnings how computed
- Next earnings report
- 2026-10-28
- Last 8 quarters vs consensus
- 4 beat, 4 missed
- Quarter by quarter
- 2026-06 ▼ miss (-11.5%)
2026-03 ▼ miss (-14.4%)
2025-12 ▲ beat (+14.8%)
2025-09 ▲ beat (+2.7%)
2025-06 ▲ beat (+2.2%)
2025-03 ▼ miss (-10.6%)
2024-12 ▲ beat (+8.2%)
2024-09 ▼ miss (-0.4%)
Analyst consensus how computed
This is not TickrTrends' verdict.
- Analyst ratings
- 2 buy · 3 hold · 1 sell (6 analysts)
- Consensus lean
- Hold-leaning
- Consensus price target
- $6400
- Target vs last price
- +8.5%
What our data shows for NVR
- Our model validated 17 trailing price-to-earnings windows for NVR, built from quarterly earnings records.
- Shares are trading in the lower third of their 12-month price range of $5,563.62–$8,097.25.
- The 14-day relative strength index sits at a neutral 42.
The exact numbers are one step away
- The precise Forward Fair Value dollar figure for NVR
- Exact discount / premium to today's price
- The normalized historical P/E behind the estimate, and how many quarters support it
- Forward EPS input and fiscal-year basis
- Screeners and rankings across the full S&P 500 and Nasdaq universes
Forward Fair Value applies a conservatively normalized historical price-to-earnings multiple to the consensus earnings estimate for the next full fiscal year; how TickrTrends computes it.
Recent NVR news
TickrTrends' derived news-sentiment signal for NVR is currently leaning positive, computed from recent coverage.
- ETFs Are Buying NVR (NVR) on Oct. 16 (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-20)
TickrTrends take: NVR operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector and is currently assessed as fairly valued according to TickrTrends metrics. The reported ETF buying activity on October 16 reflects institutional interest in the stock, though such flows do not necessarily indicate a departure from its current valuation standing. For valuation-focused observers, monitoring whether sustained ETF accumulation correlates with any shifts in NVR's fundamental metrics or relative valuation positioning would be relevant to tracking whether the fairly valued assessment remains appropriate. - NVR Inc (NVR) Shares Surge 3.6% -- What GF Score of 84 Tells Investors (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-16)
TickrTrends take: NVR's recent share movement occurs within a context where TickrTrends currently assesses the stock as fairly valued, suggesting limited upside or downside from current price levels based on fundamental metrics. The company's GF Score of 84 places it in a strong quality range, though valuation-focused investors should monitor whether this quality assessment justifies the fair value designation or signals potential repricing. As a Consumer Cyclical operator, NVR's stock price tends to correlate with economic conditions, making macroeconomic indicators and housing market trends important factors to track alongside any shifts in its valuation status. - Bear of the Day: NVR, Inc. (NVR) (zacks.com, 2026-10-09)
TickrTrends take: NVR has been identified as a bear candidate, which warrants attention given that TickrTrends currently assesses the stock as fairly valued. For investors focused on valuation metrics, any deterioration in NVR's fundamentals could shift the fair value assessment downward, particularly since the company operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector where earnings can be sensitive to economic conditions. Monitoring whether the bearish thesis materializes into actual performance declines will be important to determine if the current valuation fairly captures the underlying risks.
More NVR news
- NVR Initiates Coverage On by Morgan Stanley -- Rating Set to Underweight (gurufocus.com, 2026-10-01)
- NVR Looks 18.1% Undervalued on GF Value™ as Mortgage Pressures Mount (gurufocus.com, 2026-09-23)
What people are saying
Follow the NVR conversation: Stocktwits · Reddit · X
TickrTrends weekly updates
- 2026-10-19 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-12 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-11 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-10-10 — NVR's quality grade improved from F to D this week, reflecting a positive shift in TickrTrends' derived indicators for the Consumer Cyclical sector company. The stock maintains a Fairly valued assessment despite this upgrade in its quality metrics.
- 2026-10-06 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-28 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-21 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
- 2026-09-17 — No material change this week: the verdict, bands and grades all held steady.
Frequently asked questions
Is NVR stock undervalued?
Based on TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value model (updated 2026-10-19), NVR is trading at within about 10% of estimated fair value and screens as fairly valued. The exact fair value and discount are available to subscribers.
What is NVR's TickrTrends verdict?
NVR's current verdict is Fairly valued, refreshed with every weekly Forward Fair Value run.
How does NVR compare to other Consumer Cyclical stocks?
NVR ranks #49 of 85 Consumer Cyclical stocks in TickrTrends' coverage by discount to fair value.
Is NVR overbought or oversold?
NVR's 14-day RSI is in neutral territory - neither overbought nor oversold.
Does NVR pay a dividend?
NVR has paid no dividend in the last twelve months; its last ex-dividend date on file was 1999-10-26.
When does NVR report earnings next?
NVR's next earnings report is scheduled for 2026-10-28, per the published earnings calendar.
Does NVR usually beat earnings estimates?
Over its last 8 reported quarters NVR beat the consensus estimate 4 times and missed 4 times, by TickrTrends' comparison of reported and estimated EPS.
What do analysts say about NVR?
Of 6 analysts covering NVR, 2 rate it a buy, 3 a hold and 1 a sell - hold-leaning, with a consensus price target of $6400 (+8.5% versus TickrTrends' last price). This is the analyst consensus, not TickrTrends' Forward Fair Value verdict.
More in Consumer Cyclical
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